USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (user search)
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  USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26497 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 19, 2020, 09:57:28 AM »
According to Nate Cohn, they have many of the same panelists as they did in 2016.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2020, 09:13:56 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 14, 2020, 05:13:36 AM
It appears that we get these few blips here and there and then generally it comes back down to a 9/10 pt Biden lead

I'd have to go back and check to verify this (which I'm not really motivated to do) but it seems like the margin usually widens a bit going into the weekend and then closes again on Monday/Tuesday.  Perhaps this is due to variation in the rolling subsamples.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2020, 08:19:05 AM »
I had noticed an oscillation but guessed it was some kind of midweek vs weekend effect.  With this explanation it's a lot clearer what's happening.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2020, 03:22:43 PM »
Quote from: Georgia Democrat in 2020 on September 25, 2020, 03:19:47 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on September 25, 2020, 03:18:05 PM
There is a megathread for their tracking polls. The thread just moved to the end of the page with all these polls from today.

Which is why we need daily reporting on this poll.  Especially with 39 days to go.  The flood of numbers would push this to the side.


Can we get a mod to sticky the USC megathread?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2020, 09:08:40 AM »
Don't forget it's a 14-day rolling average.  Nate Cohn made the point earlier today:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2020, 09:36:58 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2020, 08:16:18 AM »
Quote from: tagimaucia on October 05, 2020, 07:59:27 AM


How do you get 0.625 of a voter?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2020, 07:46:01 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 18, 2020, 04:50:02 AM
Probabilistic:
Biden 53.6 (+0.03)
Trump 41.7 (+0.01)

Traditional:
Biden 54.0 (-0.2)
Trump 41.0 (+0.3)

We have reached the "two decimal places" stage of the campaign. Smiley
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