USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread

[BobbieMac]

Wow the legend that is USC/LA Times is back! I cant believe they have Biden+11, have they completely overhauled their polling methodology?

[BobbieMac]

According to Nate Cohn, they have many of the same panelists as they did in 2016.

Big if true, because this would pretty much prove the double digit swing to Biden.

[BobbieMac]

Just to point out USC/Dornlife are polling on a daily rolling weekly window, so strictly speaking this Biden+13 number is just a snapshot. He's been between +9 and +16 since mid August.

[BobbieMac]

Looks as though there's been a trend towards Trump over the past few days. Had a feeling the woodward tape would counterintuitively help him, he was "trying to keep us safe and calm" they'll say.

The trend being he cant get over 43% in a USC poll.

[BobbieMac]

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

[BobbieMac]

No movement following the debate

[BobbieMac]

Probabilistic:
Biden 51.3% (+0.2)
Trump 43.3% (+0.4)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (+0.3)
Trump 43.0% (+0.4)

The Trump debate bump is incredible. If he keeps narrowing the gap by 0.1% each day, he'll be only trailing by 6% on election day.

Assuming the PVI of the states remains constant, I see this

Biden 52.2
Trump 46.3
Jorgensen 1
Others .5

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yGRnv

There is no evidence Trump is going to significantly improve his national vote, he'll be lucky to get 44%

[BobbieMac]

Why are we obsessed with tracking polls, the Trafalgar poll in AZ showed it may not be a 500EC landslide and Trump approvals are at 46 percent

You keep pushing this Trump approval lie, its kinda sad. Trump is currently at 43.5% in the averages. Polls indicate he will struggle to hit this nationally.