USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26498 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
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« on: September 21, 2020, 05:57:56 AM »


This is so funny to watch after it was predicted. What a screw-up.
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Brittain33
brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 10:56:06 AM »

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

Just wanted to point out that 538's model graph thing has a big spike at 413. Seems to line up with the idea (proposed several times on here) that 413 may be the most probable single outcome, even though it's still unlikely.

That's interesting. 413 is where Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas have all fallen to the Dems. I suppose the reason why there's a big spike is because Biden can win several more D points beyond that and no other states will fall for a long time - not until really unlikely states like SC and MT.
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Brittain33
brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 01:37:39 PM »

I am no longer believing in anymore hack maps, Trump approvals are near 50 percent, not 39 percent a 334 map or 413 landslide, isn't gonna happen

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

Just wanted to point out that 538's model graph thing has a big spike at 413. Seems to line up with the idea (proposed several times on here) that 413 may be the most probable single outcome, even though it's still unlikely.

That's interesting. 413 is where Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas have all fallen to the Dems. I suppose the reason why there's a big spike is because Biden can win several more D points beyond that and no other states will fall for a long time - not until really unlikely states like SC and MT.

Right - I think 413 is the very likely EV total for any range of popular vote outcomes from Biden+10 or so nationally all the way until you're approaching Biden+20.

Oh, I see, “proposed several times here” implies my post isn’t a new epiphany. Smiley
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Brittain33
brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2020, 07:16:05 AM »

Probabilistic
Biden 53.4 (-0.3)
Trump 41.9 (+0.3)

Traditional
Biden 54.1 (-0.5)
Trump 40.8 (+0.3)

Results from the COVID test era are going to start falling off now.
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