USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (user search)
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  USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26503 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: August 19, 2020, 09:18:05 AM »
In this polarized environment, Trump has gone from 40% to 42% but I just think its because we are close to the election. Same thing happened in 2018.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2020, 09:19:02 AM »
They had Trump stable around 3 or 4 I thought. At this poll's worst, he was at -1.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2020, 09:36:11 AM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on August 19, 2020, 09:31:02 AM
Guess that 19 year old (well, 23 now) black Trump supporter from Chicago isn’t on the poll anymore

Well, because of Biden, he ain't black. Sorry. Couldn't resist.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2020, 09:53:57 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2020, 09:57:44 AM by Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More »
Now this is interesting

JAN 15-28, 2020
B/C
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
4,869   RV   Biden   
49%
40%
Trump   Biden   +9


Leads me to believe there has been little change in the campaign inspite of everything. Basically there's been no change to the political situation in the last 2 years. If this is where Trump will always poll (stuck at 46%), Hillary underperformed by like 6 points but I imagine about half of it was because of party fatigue.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2020, 01:36:17 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 19, 2020, 01:30:54 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 19, 2020, 01:23:02 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 19, 2020, 11:01:32 AM
Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

Probably inputting in the Africanized-Honeybee-Uncertainty-Factor (AHUF). 

What about the Asian Hornets?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2020, 01:41:01 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 19, 2020, 01:37:25 PM
Quote from: Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More on August 19, 2020, 01:36:17 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 19, 2020, 01:30:54 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 19, 2020, 01:23:02 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 19, 2020, 11:01:32 AM
Everyone remember when this was RCP's favorite pollster in 2016?

They haven't added this one yet for 2020!

Neither has 538. What's the deal?

Probably inputting in the Africanized-Honeybee-Uncertainty-Factor (AHUF). 

What about the Asian Hornets?

Silver is "tinkering with things" and "will have details sometime by Thursday". 

No one needs to know about him "tinkering with things"!
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2020, 08:08:53 AM »
Beginning to oscillate as predicted.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2020, 08:22:38 AM »
How does this compare to 2 weeks ago?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2020, 06:38:09 AM »
Or even just compare where we were 14 days ago. This is that sort of "panel" right?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2020, 09:15:52 AM »
Quote from: Niemeyerite on October 02, 2020, 08:55:15 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 02, 2020, 06:15:13 AM
Probabilistic:
Biden 51.3% (+0.2)
Trump 43.3% (+0.4)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (+0.3)
Trump 43.0% (+0.4)

The Trump debate bump is incredible. If he keeps narrowing the gap by 0.1% each day, he'll be only trailing by 6% on election day.

Assuming the PVI of the states remains constant, I see this

Biden 52.2
Trump 46.3
Jorgensen 1
Others .5

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yGRnv
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
United States


« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2020, 12:22:10 PM »
Quote from: BobbieMac on October 02, 2020, 10:23:58 AM
Quote from: Chocolate Thunder on October 02, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
Quote from: Niemeyerite on October 02, 2020, 08:55:15 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 02, 2020, 06:15:13 AM
Probabilistic:
Biden 51.3% (+0.2)
Trump 43.3% (+0.4)

Traditional:
Biden 52.1% (+0.3)
Trump 43.0% (+0.4)

The Trump debate bump is incredible. If he keeps narrowing the gap by 0.1% each day, he'll be only trailing by 6% on election day.

Assuming the PVI of the states remains constant, I see this

Biden 52.2
Trump 46.3
Jorgensen 1
Others .5

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yGRnv

There is no evidence Trump is going to significantly improve his national vote, he'll be lucky to get 44%
This is what would happen if he kept improving a tenth a day. It’s equally as possible he will be down by 12.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,667
United States


« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2020, 07:27:33 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 13, 2020, 04:55:09 AM
Probabilistic
Biden 54.0 (+0.5)
Trump 41.3 (-0.2)

Traditional
Biden 54.7 (+0.5)
Trump 40.5 (-0.4)
This is ridiculous
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