First time I've checked this thread in awhile, what's the difference between probabilistic and traditional as far as methodology?
Presumably they do a little adjustment based off the social contacts vote question and the others in the state vote question. Not unlike Trafalgar's "how will your neighbour vote" adjustment. Biden's lead is smaller in both of those than in the traditional vote screen so I guess that's why it contracts on the probabilistic screen.
Maybe also a different Likely Voter adjustment? Based off demographics rather than self-reported likelihood.
