USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Reading the methodology statement a bit more carefully, the probabilistic personal vote topline (the one that generates Biden +13% instead of the traditional sample's Biden +14%) seems to incorporate the following: "Of all the people who live in your state and are likely to vote, what percentage do you think will vote for Biden, Trump, Someone else?"

This same question is posted later in the document as part of the Winner Expectations question and I assume its inclusion in the probabilistic voting sample is a mistake given that 538 still lists this as a valid poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isnt winning by 13

[Rand]

Biden isnt winning by 13

He will, though. He will win nationally by 13 votes. One vote per battleground state.

[Landslide Lyndon]

53-41 today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It depends on how many people vote next week, in MA primary and NC early voting we will know how much of a cushion Biden will get on Trump before Election day voting

[Progressive Pessimist]

53-41 today.

Slight reassurance after the other national polls we had today?

[DrScholl]

This was Trump's best poll in 2016 and it overestimated him.

[Hammy]

Another Trash Poll, also not included in the RCP average

Again Biden being up by 13 is just untrue and anyone can see that

Not a chance he could possibly be up that high

That's true because 7% aren't going to vote for "Undecided" on the ballot. If you split the undecideds the way they fell in 2016 Biden's at between +6 and +8 in this poll which fits with current national polling.

[libertpaulian]

End result is likely Biden +7-10.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

53-41 today.

Is this completely post-RNC?

It's also worth noticing that RCP hasn't entered a single one of these polls into their database after including them in the 2016 aggregate.

[Gass3268]

Why won't RCP include this poll? It was their favorite in 2016!

Is it because they lost their LA Times Sponsorship? Or is it just because Trump is doing poorly in it?

[Benjamin Frank]

53-41 today.

Is this completely post-RNC?

It's also worth noticing that RCP hasn't entered a single one of these polls into their database after including them in the 2016 aggregate.

538 is a better aggregator than RCP.

[BlueSwan]

Why won't RCP include this poll? It was their favorite in 2016!

Is it because they lost their LA Times Sponsorship? Or is it just because Trump is doing poorly in it?

I think we all know the answer to this.

[Hammy]

53-41 today.

Is this completely post-RNC?

It's also worth noticing that RCP hasn't entered a single one of these polls into their database after including them in the 2016 aggregate.

Isn't RCP basically Republican-owned?

[Ferguson97]

Another Trash Poll, also not included in the RCP average

Again Biden being up by 13 is just untrue and anyone can see that

Not a chance he could possibly be up that high

That's true because 7% aren't going to vote for "Undecided" on the ballot. If you split the undecideds the way they fell in 2016 Biden's at between +6 and +8 in this poll which fits with current national polling.

Don't undecideds actually mostly go to Biden when pushed?

[Hammy]

Another Trash Poll, also not included in the RCP average

Again Biden being up by 13 is just untrue and anyone can see that

Not a chance he could possibly be up that high

That's true because 7% aren't going to vote for "Undecided" on the ballot. If you split the undecideds the way they fell in 2016 Biden's at between +6 and +8 in this poll which fits with current national polling.

Don't undecideds actually mostly go to Biden when pushed?

They did in 2016 too--until it came time to actually vote. That's what I'm basing it on.

[Landslide Lyndon]

54-40 today. I guess we are still seeing Biden's post-convention bounce since the sample is between 23-29 August.

[tagimaucia]

Even though this poll was off by ~5 points in 2016, it showed the movement towards Trump in the week or so before the election a lot more clearly and distinctly than most polling aggregates did, and also showed that it continued to build basically until Election Day.  I think its worth at least keeping an eye on, just add a handicap of however many points if you think its too friendly to Biden.  And its' too soon to say its not showing any RNC bounce IMO. 5/7 of the current sample is still before the final night of the convention, although at this point it doesn't seem likely that it will show a big one.

[tagimaucia]

Just found this.  Back in 2016, this economist constantly reweighted the 2016 LAT/USC poll based on the American Community Survey and other demographic data.  Not only did his "reweighted" version come within 0.2% of the final margin on Election Day 2018 (his final margin was Hillary +1.9, the actual was Hillary +2.1), but his estimations basically worked perfectly as a leading indicator of the RCP + other poll aggregates that was ahead of them by a week or a little less.

https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/796053756915908608

https://sites.google.com/site/latuscrw/

[Alben Barkley]

Even though this poll was off by ~5 points in 2016, it showed the movement towards Trump in the week or so before the election a lot more clearly and distinctly than most polling aggregates did, and also showed that it continued to build basically until Election Day.  I think its worth at least keeping an eye on, just add a handicap of however many points if you think its too friendly to Biden.  And its' too soon to say its not showing any RNC bounce IMO. 5/7 of the current sample is still before the final night of the convention, although at this point it doesn't seem likely that it will show a big one.

But last time it was too friendly to TRUMP. Why should I assume it’s too friendly for Biden now? If anything, if we assume consistency from 2016, I should expect it to be too friendly to Trump again. Meaning that Biden should actually be up by like 17 or so by this logic.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just found this.  Back in 2016, this economist constantly reweighted the 2016 LAT/USC poll based on the American Community Survey and other demographic data.  Not only did his "reweighted" version come within 0.2% of the final margin on Election Day 2018 (his final margin was Hillary +1.9, the actual was Hillary +2.1), but his estimations basically worked perfectly as a leading indicator of the RCP + other poll aggregates that was ahead of them by a week or a little less.

https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/796053756915908608

https://sites.google.com/site/latuscrw/

Has anyone done it this year?

[Minnesota Mike]

With trackers movement is more informative than margin. What little movement there has been has been in Biden's favor.  No evidence of any convention bounces.

[DrScholl]

No convention bounce might mean that the electorate is heavily polarized enough where there wasn't much room for any bounce. We might be at the point where convention bounces no longer happen because the electorate is increasingly polarized and the choices between candidates are more clear.

[Landslide Lyndon]

53-41

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The 'Traditional' and 'Probalistic' question is throwing me off and I'm not sure which one is preferable.

I can't find the Probablistic result, so here's Traditional.


August 24-30

Biden      53.6    (-0.8 )
Trump     40.2   (+0.5)