For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 01:36:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?  (Read 3577 times)
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,509
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: August 15, 2020, 07:06:45 PM »

Those famously rural areas Staten Island and Suffolk County, NY voted for Trump.
Logged
ReaganLimbaugh
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 357
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: August 16, 2020, 04:30:16 PM »

The below is a good analysis but I would mention as of 1972 the DeKalb portion of Atlanta had considerably less minorities than the remainder of Atlanta as it was really more high income Atlanta or fairly newer "Semi Suburban" growth.  My dad is from near that area and I would estimate Atlanta DeKalb was probably one of the most Republican parts of the state this is coming from a low base of course and probably voted 2/3 Republican for President in 72.

Under this premise Nixon probably won Atlanta overall but not by much.



___________________________
I am not sure that Atlanta voted for Nixon.

In 1972, Atlanta had approximately 480,000 inhabitants. Fulton County had approximately 600,000 inhabitants. Considering that a small part of Atlanta lies in DeKalb County, we can say that in 1972 Atlanta proper comprised roughly 3/4 of the population (and of the votes) in Fulton County.
Fulton had 170,000 votes that year, and Nixon won it by 22,000 votes (a 13% margin). Considering that Atlanta already had a majority-Black population and that Nixon broke 82% in all of the nearby counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Cobb, Douglas, Fayette and Clayton, I think it is a fair assumption that Nixon won the non-Atlanta part of Fulton by a 60-point margin or so. As I said before, the non-Atlanta part of Fulton also likely comprised something like one quarter of the vote. 1/4 * 170,000 * 60% = 25,500. This rough calculation gives Nixon a larger margin in the non-Atlanta part of Fulton than in total Fulton, or in other words would have McGovern winning Atlanta proper. Well, there is the DeKalb part of Atlanta, but it is small and imagining that it voted like the rest of the city is both the easiest thing to do and some that would explain why Nixon stopped short of 80% in DeKalb County.


Of course this is very rough, but it is the best I can with what I can find on the Internet and at least shows that there is a strong possibility that Atlanta voted Democratic in 1972.
Logged
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,363
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: August 17, 2020, 01:20:03 PM »

The below is a good analysis but I would mention as of 1972 the DeKalb portion of Atlanta had considerably less minorities than the remainder of Atlanta as it was really more high income Atlanta or fairly newer "Semi Suburban" growth.  My dad is from near that area and I would estimate Atlanta DeKalb was probably one of the most Republican parts of the state this is coming from a low base of course and probably voted 2/3 Republican for President in 72.

Under this premise Nixon probably won Atlanta overall but not by much.



Thank you for this!

I think that Atlanta may have gone either way in 1972.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.209 seconds with 12 queries.