For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?
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  For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?
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Author Topic: For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?  (Read 3548 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: September 07, 2019, 08:49:13 PM »

Starting with which election?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2019, 09:05:12 PM »


Perhaps either 1988 or 1992? Looking back at prior elections, I know that (or can guess) these major cities last voted Republican in these years:

1. New York City, Boston, St. Louis (MO), St. Paul (MN)-1924 for Coolidge.
2. Detroit-1928 for Hoover.
3. Philadelphia-1932 for Hoover.
4. Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles (?), Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco-1956 for Eisenhower.
5. Portland (OR)-1960 for Nixon.
6. Atlanta, New Orleans, Durham (NC)-1972 for Nixon.
7. Denver-1980 for Reagan.
8. Austin-1984 for Reagan (?).

These are ones that come to mind currently.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2019, 11:47:02 PM »

Urban American Democratic dominance is a product of the New Deal Era and was solidified by 1960 when the concept of the urban archipelago came into being.

NYC and Boston had been historically Democratic cities prior to this period, and Republican victories in 1920/1924 were the product of the Democratic collapse in the period leading up to those elections. Them flipping back wouldn't be very earth shattering. However, the rest of the cities on the other hand marked a huge shift and this was largely driven by suburban white flight, which removed the major Republican base, the transition of African-Americans to being strongly Democratic combined with the growth in their numbers during the great migration and lastly the shift in Republican policy focus away from one of industrialization, to one of opposing big gov't.

If you think about it, the Federalists, the Whigs and the Republicans thereafter, while involving larger segments of the rural north in each, had largely been urban and cosmopolitan oriented parties. Their base in each was middle/upper middle class and financial/mercantile elite. As voting expanded, they used a combination of machine politics, economic protectionism and internal improvements to maintain political power in a number of cities even with substantial demographic changes from immigration.

This fell apart once protectionism was removed from the table at the beginning of the New Deal Era. Republicans had already shifted away from internal improvements towards a more limited gov't orientation domestically, this weakened Republican power in the cities right as the Depression was beginning. Furthermore, the Smith candidacy had also shifted Republicans towards a more rural focus away from the cities at the expense of the urban political machines, just as Democrats were gaining ground in them.

By 1960, this process had fully developed, with Republicans dominating the suburbs where their base had largely moved to, but with Democrats increasingly dominating the cities.

Again, there were cities that were Democratic before this period, and there were cities that were Republican after this period (some of them in the Midwest and especially the Sunbelt, where this evolution of white flight and such was a few steps behind the rest of the county and the economic interests were different being more focused on the military and white collar jobs as opposed to big industry), but on the whole urban America has generally leaned Democratic for about 60 to 80 years.

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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2019, 04:56:52 PM »

Urban American Democratic dominance is a product of the New Deal Era and was solidified by 1960 when the concept of the urban archipelago came into being.

NYC and Boston had been historically Democratic cities prior to this period, and Republican victories in 1920/1924 were the product of the Democratic collapse in the period leading up to those elections. Them flipping back wouldn't be very earth shattering. However, the rest of the cities on the other hand marked a huge shift and this was largely driven by suburban white flight, which removed the major Republican base, the transition of African-Americans to being strongly Democratic combined with the growth in their numbers during the great migration and lastly the shift in Republican policy focus away from one of industrialization, to one of opposing big gov't.

If you think about it, the Federalists, the Whigs and the Republicans thereafter, while involving larger segments of the rural north in each, had largely been urban and cosmopolitan oriented parties. Their base in each was middle/upper middle class and financial/mercantile elite. As voting expanded, they used a combination of machine politics, economic protectionism and internal improvements to maintain political power in a number of cities even with substantial demographic changes from immigration.

This fell apart once protectionism was removed from the table at the beginning of the New Deal Era. Republicans had already shifted away from internal improvements towards a more limited gov't orientation domestically, this weakened Republican power in the cities right as the Depression was beginning. Furthermore, the Smith candidacy had also shifted Republicans towards a more rural focus away from the cities at the expense of the urban political machines, just as Democrats were gaining ground in them.

By 1960, this process had fully developed, with Republicans dominating the suburbs where their base had largely moved to, but with Democrats increasingly dominating the cities.

Again, there were cities that were Democratic before this period, and there were cities that were Republican after this period (some of them in the Midwest and especially the Sunbelt, where this evolution of white flight and such was a few steps behind the rest of the county and the economic interests were different being more focused on the military and white collar jobs as opposed to big industry), but on the whole urban America has generally leaned Democratic for about 60 to 80 years.



Great analysis. Don't have much to add here. It's worth noting that NYC voted Democratic since the party's founding by Andrew Jackson. Even Lincoln lost NYC to Douglas in 1860 and McClellan in 1864. The only Republicans to win NYC are McKinely 1896, Harding 1920, and Coolidge 1924. In 1896 Bryan was portrayed as an extremist who would destroy the ubran economic centers. Companies in NYC told their employees to not show up to work if Bryan won because there wouldn't be any jobs left. Adjusted for inflation, 1896 was the most expensive campaign in history. 1920 and 1924 were due to Dem collapse with the traditional urban ethnic groups (e.g. Irish) in the aftermath of Wilson's disastrous handling of WWI and domestic strife. His refusal to honor a promise to promote Irish independence and persecution of German-Americans infuriated those groups.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2019, 05:25:34 PM »

I predict 1992
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2019, 11:41:37 PM »

Urban American Democratic dominance is a product of the New Deal Era and was solidified by 1960 when the concept of the urban archipelago came into being.

NYC and Boston had been historically Democratic cities prior to this period, and Republican victories in 1920/1924 were the product of the Democratic collapse in the period leading up to those elections. Them flipping back wouldn't be very earth shattering. However, the rest of the cities on the other hand marked a huge shift and this was largely driven by suburban white flight, which removed the major Republican base, the transition of African-Americans to being strongly Democratic combined with the growth in their numbers during the great migration and lastly the shift in Republican policy focus away from one of industrialization, to one of opposing big gov't.

If you think about it, the Federalists, the Whigs and the Republicans thereafter, while involving larger segments of the rural north in each, had largely been urban and cosmopolitan oriented parties. Their base in each was middle/upper middle class and financial/mercantile elite. As voting expanded, they used a combination of machine politics, economic protectionism and internal improvements to maintain political power in a number of cities even with substantial demographic changes from immigration.

This fell apart once protectionism was removed from the table at the beginning of the New Deal Era. Republicans had already shifted away from internal improvements towards a more limited gov't orientation domestically, this weakened Republican power in the cities right as the Depression was beginning. Furthermore, the Smith candidacy had also shifted Republicans towards a more rural focus away from the cities at the expense of the urban political machines, just as Democrats were gaining ground in them.

By 1960, this process had fully developed, with Republicans dominating the suburbs where their base had largely moved to, but with Democrats increasingly dominating the cities.

Again, there were cities that were Democratic before this period, and there were cities that were Republican after this period (some of them in the Midwest and especially the Sunbelt, where this evolution of white flight and such was a few steps behind the rest of the county and the economic interests were different being more focused on the military and white collar jobs as opposed to big industry), but on the whole urban America has generally leaned Democratic for about 60 to 80 years.



Great analysis. Don't have much to add here. It's worth noting that NYC voted Democratic since the party's founding by Andrew Jackson. Even Lincoln lost NYC to Douglas in 1860 and McClellan in 1864. The only Republicans to win NYC are McKinely 1896, Harding 1920, and Coolidge 1924. In 1896 Bryan was portrayed as an extremist who would destroy the ubran economic centers. Companies in NYC told their employees to not show up to work if Bryan won because there wouldn't be any jobs left. Adjusted for inflation, 1896 was the most expensive campaign in history. 1920 and 1924 were due to Dem collapse with the traditional urban ethnic groups (e.g. Irish) in the aftermath of Wilson's disastrous handling of WWI and domestic strife. His refusal to honor a promise to promote Irish independence and persecution of German-Americans infuriated those groups.

That is some neat info from both of you!
Also, I remember that there were draft riots in NYC during the  Civil War, perhaps why Lincoln lost it in 1864?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2019, 11:48:33 PM »

Urban American Democratic dominance is a product of the New Deal Era and was solidified by 1960 when the concept of the urban archipelago came into being.

NYC and Boston had been historically Democratic cities prior to this period, and Republican victories in 1920/1924 were the product of the Democratic collapse in the period leading up to those elections. Them flipping back wouldn't be very earth shattering. However, the rest of the cities on the other hand marked a huge shift and this was largely driven by suburban white flight, which removed the major Republican base, the transition of African-Americans to being strongly Democratic combined with the growth in their numbers during the great migration and lastly the shift in Republican policy focus away from one of industrialization, to one of opposing big gov't.

If you think about it, the Federalists, the Whigs and the Republicans thereafter, while involving larger segments of the rural north in each, had largely been urban and cosmopolitan oriented parties. Their base in each was middle/upper middle class and financial/mercantile elite. As voting expanded, they used a combination of machine politics, economic protectionism and internal improvements to maintain political power in a number of cities even with substantial demographic changes from immigration.

This fell apart once protectionism was removed from the table at the beginning of the New Deal Era. Republicans had already shifted away from internal improvements towards a more limited gov't orientation domestically, this weakened Republican power in the cities right as the Depression was beginning. Furthermore, the Smith candidacy had also shifted Republicans towards a more rural focus away from the cities at the expense of the urban political machines, just as Democrats were gaining ground in them.

By 1960, this process had fully developed, with Republicans dominating the suburbs where their base had largely moved to, but with Democrats increasingly dominating the cities.

Again, there were cities that were Democratic before this period, and there were cities that were Republican after this period (some of them in the Midwest and especially the Sunbelt, where this evolution of white flight and such was a few steps behind the rest of the county and the economic interests were different being more focused on the military and white collar jobs as opposed to big industry), but on the whole urban America has generally leaned Democratic for about 60 to 80 years.



Great analysis. Don't have much to add here. It's worth noting that NYC voted Democratic since the party's founding by Andrew Jackson. Even Lincoln lost NYC to Douglas in 1860 and McClellan in 1864. The only Republicans to win NYC are McKinely 1896, Harding 1920, and Coolidge 1924. In 1896 Bryan was portrayed as an extremist who would destroy the ubran economic centers. Companies in NYC told their employees to not show up to work if Bryan won because there wouldn't be any jobs left. Adjusted for inflation, 1896 was the most expensive campaign in history. 1920 and 1924 were due to Dem collapse with the traditional urban ethnic groups (e.g. Irish) in the aftermath of Wilson's disastrous handling of WWI and domestic strife. His refusal to honor a promise to promote Irish independence and persecution of German-Americans infuriated those groups.

That is some neat info from both of you!
Also, I remember that there were draft riots in NYC during the  Civil War, perhaps why Lincoln lost it in 1864?

Lincoln lost New York City because of the same group that cost Cox and Davis the city: the Irish. Many Irish immigrants protested the Civil War vigorously, and as you noted, rioted in 1863. Irish voters and other white ethnics (also opposed to the War), overwhelmingly backed McClellan, almost handing him New York State. Lincoln won the state by less than a percentage point, doing just well enough in Upstate to counteract the ethnic backlash in New York City.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2020, 01:04:44 AM »


Perhaps either 1988 or 1992? Looking back at prior elections, I know that (or can guess) these major cities last voted Republican in these years:

1. New York City, Boston, St. Louis (MO), St. Paul (MN)-1924 for Coolidge.
2. Detroit-1928 for Hoover.
3. Philadelphia-1932 for Hoover.
4. Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles (?), Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco-1956 for Eisenhower.
5. Portland (OR)-1960 for Nixon.
6. Atlanta, New Orleans, Durham (NC)-1972 for Nixon.
7. Denver-1980 for Reagan.
8. Austin-1984 for Reagan (?).

These are ones that come to mind currently.

Phoenix likely voted Republican as late as 1988. Dukakis only won one congressional district with area in Phoenix, and much of that included Tucson.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2020, 12:39:33 PM »

At least in New York City, IIRC, Tammany Hall delivered the urban core to the Democratic-Republicans from the very beginning. Once the party machines started integrating immigrants, it was all over.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2020, 11:00:21 PM »


Perhaps either 1988 or 1992? Looking back at prior elections, I know that (or can guess) these major cities last voted Republican in these years:

1. New York City, Boston, St. Louis (MO), St. Paul (MN)-1924 for Coolidge.
2. Detroit-1928 for Hoover.
3. Philadelphia-1932 for Hoover.
4. Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles (?), Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco-1956 for Eisenhower.
5. Portland (OR)-1960 for Nixon.
6. Atlanta, New Orleans, Durham (NC)-1972 for Nixon.
7. Denver-1980 for Reagan.
8. Austin-1984 for Reagan (?).

These are ones that come to mind currently.

Phoenix likely voted Republican as late as 1988. Dukakis only won one congressional district with area in Phoenix, and much of that included Tucson.

This wouldn't surprise me. Reagan definitely won the city in 1984, as he got 66% in Arizona and 72% in Maricopa County. Goldwater almost certainly carried it in 1964, as Maricopa County saved him from defeat by Lyndon Johnson in his own home state. In fact, it's hard for me to see any Democrat after Truman in 1948 winning it until at least Bill Clinton in either 1992 or 1996.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2020, 03:25:52 PM »


Perhaps either 1988 or 1992? Looking back at prior elections, I know that (or can guess) these major cities last voted Republican in these years:

1. New York City, Boston, St. Louis (MO), St. Paul (MN)-1924 for Coolidge.
2. Detroit-1928 for Hoover.
3. Philadelphia-1932 for Hoover.
4. Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles (?), Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco-1956 for Eisenhower.
5. Portland (OR)-1960 for Nixon.
6. Atlanta, New Orleans, Durham (NC)-1972 for Nixon.
7. Denver-1980 for Reagan.
8. Austin-1984 for Reagan (?).

These are ones that come to mind currently.


I am not sure that Atlanta voted for Nixon.

In 1972, Atlanta had approximately 480,000 inhabitants. Fulton County had approximately 600,000 inhabitants. Considering that a small part of Atlanta lies in DeKalb County, we can say that in 1972 Atlanta proper comprised roughly 3/4 of the population (and of the votes) in Fulton County.
Fulton had 170,000 votes that year, and Nixon won it by 22,000 votes (a 13% margin). Considering that Atlanta already had a majority-Black population and that Nixon broke 82% in all of the nearby counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Cobb, Douglas, Fayette and Clayton, I think it is a fair assumption that Nixon won the non-Atlanta part of Fulton by a 60-point margin or so. As I said before, the non-Atlanta part of Fulton also likely comprised something like one quarter of the vote. 1/4 * 170,000 * 60% = 25,500. This rough calculation gives Nixon a larger margin in the non-Atlanta part of Fulton than in total Fulton, or in other words would have McGovern winning Atlanta proper. Well, there is the DeKalb part of Atlanta, but it is small and imagining that it voted like the rest of the city is both the easiest thing to do and some that would explain why Nixon stopped short of 80% in DeKalb County.


Of course this is very rough, but it is the best I can with what I can find on the Internet and at least shows that there is a strong possibility that Atlanta voted Democratic in 1972.
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2020, 01:07:41 AM »

Jimmy Carter did better in Forsyth and Cherokee counties in 1976 than in Cobb and Gwinnett.
Back then they must have been totally rural and full of good ole' boys.
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Tamika Jackson
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2020, 09:34:57 AM »

The proliferation of universities and colleges also helped along with greater students going to college.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2020, 04:37:44 AM »

I'd say 1996.

Perhaps the last large, urban, Black majority county to vote GOP was Hinds County, MS in 1992. Jefferson County, AL stayed GOP through 2004, but I'm thinking Birmingham proper was Dem by then. And we are talking the last of the last holdouts.

Even Greenville County, SC, home of Bob Jones University, is now wavering in its support of the GOP.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2020, 01:00:10 PM »

Jimmy Carter did better in Forsyth and Cherokee counties in 1976 than in Cobb and Gwinnett.
Back then they must have been totally rural and full of good ole' boys.

Is it a response to my Atlanta post?
However judging by population growth Forsyth and Cherokee in 1976 were still partly rural with some very recent exurban growth, which then took off starting just a few years later and rendering them extremely Republican starting in 1984.
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Crane
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« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2020, 01:11:21 PM »

Los Angeles County voted for Reagan twice, right?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2020, 01:24:34 PM »

Los Angeles County voted for Reagan twice, right?

Yes, but very very likely Reagan lost the city of Los Angeles and made up for that winning Santa Clarita/Antelope Valley/Beverly Hills/Long Beach/what have you. You can check the congressional district map for this.
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slothdem
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« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2020, 05:27:09 PM »


Perhaps either 1988 or 1992? Looking back at prior elections, I know that (or can guess) these major cities last voted Republican in these years:

1. New York City, Boston, St. Louis (MO), St. Paul (MN)-1924 for Coolidge.
2. Detroit-1928 for Hoover.
3. Philadelphia-1932 for Hoover.
4. Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles (?), Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco-1956 for Eisenhower.
5. Portland (OR)-1960 for Nixon.
6. Atlanta, New Orleans, Durham (NC)-1972 for Nixon.
7. Denver-1980 for Reagan.
8. Austin-1984 for Reagan (?).

These are ones that come to mind currently.


I am not sure that Atlanta voted for Nixon.

In 1972, Atlanta had approximately 480,000 inhabitants. Fulton County had approximately 600,000 inhabitants. Considering that a small part of Atlanta lies in DeKalb County, we can say that in 1972 Atlanta proper comprised roughly 3/4 of the population (and of the votes) in Fulton County.
Fulton had 170,000 votes that year, and Nixon won it by 22,000 votes (a 13% margin). Considering that Atlanta already had a majority-Black population and that Nixon broke 82% in all of the nearby counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Cobb, Douglas, Fayette and Clayton, I think it is a fair assumption that Nixon won the non-Atlanta part of Fulton by a 60-point margin or so. As I said before, the non-Atlanta part of Fulton also likely comprised something like one quarter of the vote. 1/4 * 170,000 * 60% = 25,500. This rough calculation gives Nixon a larger margin in the non-Atlanta part of Fulton than in total Fulton, or in other words would have McGovern winning Atlanta proper. Well, there is the DeKalb part of Atlanta, but it is small and imagining that it voted like the rest of the city is both the easiest thing to do and some that would explain why Nixon stopped short of 80% in DeKalb County.


Of course this is very rough, but it is the best I can with what I can find on the Internet and at least shows that there is a strong possibility that Atlanta voted Democratic in 1972.

I believe you are correct about McGovern narrowly carrying Atlanta in 1972. I also think if that is the case, that Atlanta is very likely the only large city that has never been carried by a Republican.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2020, 03:22:27 AM »


Perhaps either 1988 or 1992? Looking back at prior elections, I know that (or can guess) these major cities last voted Republican in these years:

1. New York City, Boston, St. Louis (MO), St. Paul (MN)-1924 for Coolidge.
2. Detroit-1928 for Hoover.
3. Philadelphia-1932 for Hoover.
4. Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles (?), Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco-1956 for Eisenhower.
5. Portland (OR)-1960 for Nixon.
6. Atlanta, New Orleans, Durham (NC)-1972 for Nixon.
7. Denver-1980 for Reagan.
8. Austin-1984 for Reagan (?).

These are ones that come to mind currently.


I am not sure that Atlanta voted for Nixon.

In 1972, Atlanta had approximately 480,000 inhabitants. Fulton County had approximately 600,000 inhabitants. Considering that a small part of Atlanta lies in DeKalb County, we can say that in 1972 Atlanta proper comprised roughly 3/4 of the population (and of the votes) in Fulton County.
Fulton had 170,000 votes that year, and Nixon won it by 22,000 votes (a 13% margin). Considering that Atlanta already had a majority-Black population and that Nixon broke 82% in all of the nearby counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Cobb, Douglas, Fayette and Clayton, I think it is a fair assumption that Nixon won the non-Atlanta part of Fulton by a 60-point margin or so. As I said before, the non-Atlanta part of Fulton also likely comprised something like one quarter of the vote. 1/4 * 170,000 * 60% = 25,500. This rough calculation gives Nixon a larger margin in the non-Atlanta part of Fulton than in total Fulton, or in other words would have McGovern winning Atlanta proper. Well, there is the DeKalb part of Atlanta, but it is small and imagining that it voted like the rest of the city is both the easiest thing to do and some that would explain why Nixon stopped short of 80% in DeKalb County.


Of course this is very rough, but it is the best I can with what I can find on the Internet and at least shows that there is a strong possibility that Atlanta voted Democratic in 1972.

I believe you are correct about McGovern narrowly carrying Atlanta in 1972. I also think if that is the case, that Atlanta is very likely the only large city that has never been carried by a Republican.

No, it was very likely carried by Ulysses Grant in 1872.
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« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2020, 05:04:55 AM »

I think Nixon won a nice chunk of NYC wards in 1972
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2020, 06:19:07 AM »

I think Nixon won a nice chunk of NYC wards in 1972

Wards were abolished in 1938. Are you referring to City Council districts?
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« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2020, 06:30:24 AM »

I think Nixon won a nice chunk of NYC wards in 1972

Wards were abolished in 1938. Are you referring to City Council districts?
yes. He just barely lost Kings county by less than 2% and he outright won Queens county
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« Reply #22 on: July 24, 2020, 12:28:04 AM »

I think Nixon won a nice chunk of NYC wards in 1972

Wards were abolished in 1938. Are you referring to City Council districts?
yes. He just barely lost Kings county by less than 2% and he outright won Queens county

And of course, Nixon also won Staten Island by a landslide margin. 1972 was the last presidential election in which Queens voted Republican. It was also the last election in which New York City was within single digits-I believe Nixon lost it to McGovern by 4%, with McGovern's narrow win in Brooklyn, and his victories in Manhattan and the Bronx, giving him the edge. This is why Nixon was able to win New York by 17% that year. Twelve years later, in 1984, Walter Mondale won Queens and performed more strongly in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and the Bronx then McGovern had. He also won Albany, Tompkins, and Erie Counties, which McGovern lost; hence, why he performed more strongly in New York then McGovern, losing it to Reagan by 8%.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2020, 05:31:52 PM »

The correct answer is "never."
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« Reply #24 on: August 10, 2020, 05:36:45 AM »

I think Nixon won a nice chunk of NYC wards in 1972

Nixon carried Queens in 1972.  His strongest district in all of NY state was located entirely in Queens County, centered around Forest Hills.

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