What is your current prediction for November?

[Hammy]

Americans will always find a way to blame someone else to ignore the nature of their own country. If Trump wins, mass voter suppression! China is to blame for the virus! Russia elected Trump! blah, blah, blah.

Trump has literally said he is refusing to fund USPS because it handles mail ballots.

[ElectionsGuy]

What I learned from this thread and its polling options is that the hyperpolitical Democrats live in such agony and high stress every day because of the orange man that they cannot and will not accept an election where Trump wins. My prediction is actually that Trump will start out election night with big leads almost everywhere that will eventually collapse down into a deficit in the critical states or close enough to be contested for a recount. Both camps will cry fraud or suppression but the left will likely do it early when the results look better for Trump and then have to backtrack and have to justify why the results are legitimate after a few days/weeks.

[ElectionsGuy]

6. There won't be an election, because Trump overthrows Congress and declares himself President for Life with the backing of the military.

I agree as well. I honestly think that Donald Trump will find a way to stay in power until he dies sometime in the 2030s or 2040s. After his death, Donald Trump Jr. will probably take over as President.

This is what completely irrational paranoia looks like. Trump has little to no control over his own advisors and cabinet members but he's going to take over the military and declare himself dictator?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS which is the newest belle which was in 2018 and will be again in 2022 will vote D. AZ, CO, FL, GA, KS, ME, NV, NM and NC  trended D in 2018.

TX didnt trend D, we won Congressional elections but lost Fed Races and so did IA and OH
KS with no incumbent,  not IA or MT will ensure Ds get to 51 Seats before GA runoffs

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Huge Trump win, clear as day voter suppression.


We're still not taking the threat posed by fascists in Republican drag anywhere near seriously enough, even as Donald Trump sits on TV and tells the nation that he's stealing the election, and how he's doing it.

I commend those trying to save the Postal Service, and planing general strikes, but I don't think its going to be enough. Too many people seem to think this will be a "normal" election, only with extra Republican complaints. I think the Biden campaign is prepared for Florida in 2000 on steroids, but I don't think that is going to be enough. Donald Trump, his enablers, and his followers will not stand for any election he doesn't win. Every single Biden win is going to be challenged, and the Trump administration is already working night and day to make sure they've created ground for challenging votes, for disenfranchising voters, for destroying the integrity of the election.

Opposition to Trump and his American Fascist Party in its Republican-skin suit has demonstrated again and again and again an inability to keep up with his crimes and abuse, an inability to really grasp how awful and dangerous he is. People just seem to have this inherent block on understanding the depths to which Trump and his party have already sunk. I think that in the days, weeks and months after the election, we're going to hear endless variations "who could have thought that Donald Trump would do [horrible thing] to stay in office", while our nation dies.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What I learned from this thread and its polling options is that the hyperpolitical Democrats live in such agony and high stress every day because of the orange man that they cannot and will not accept an election where Trump wins. My prediction is actually that Trump will start out election night with big leads almost everywhere that will eventually collapse down into a deficit in the critical states or close enough to be contested for a recount. Both camps will cry fraud or suppression but the left will likely do it early when the results look better for Trump and then have to backtrack and have to justify why the results are legitimate after a few days/weeks.

Does Trump when all is said and done, EG? I know you take a much more...Trump-friendly(?) view of this election cycle and it's always interesting to read your input. 

[Del Tachi]

This framing doesn't seem very neutral lol

Because the issue isn't very neutral. One candidate is openly sabotaging the postal service in an attempt to prevent vote by mail and one isn't. Try living in reality.

You’re right.  The issue isn’t very neutral when you have governors like Murphy using executive action to drop millions of unrequested mail-in ballots in New Jersey.  That’s essentially vote harvesting. 

What's being referenced here is that Governor Murphy is mailing VBM ballots with pre-paid postage to all active registered voters. It's being compared with squeezing the post office to ensure voters *can't* vote by mail during a pandemic.

Your sentiment is truly anti-American.

What's anti-American is using executive action to force a transition to an entirely mail-in election without affecting the necessary and proper steps to protect ballot security.  In New Jersey it's especially egregious.  Almost 10 percent of all ballots from NJ's entirely mail-in May 12 local elections ended up getting disqualified and there were multiple reports of NJ mail-in ballots being delivered/distributed in ways that are not secure.   

Democrats are trying to steal the race by flooding the election with millions of unrequested, unsecure mail-in ballots.  The Nevada Democratic Party is suing to prevent the SoS from enforcing signature verification for mail-in ballots as required under duly-passed NV law.  A lawsuit from Democratic groups in Pennsylvania is seeking the seem.       

Democratic governors are using executive action to override the laws duly-passed by their legislatures, and instead wrestling control of the election away from voters in favor of politically-appointed judges.  That's the only certain outcome:  that a rush to universal VBM will be marred by hundreds of lawsuits (from both sides!) that will destroy any credibility of the November result no matter who wins.  And all for what?  Even Dr. Fauci says in-person voting is just as safe as going to the grocery store. 

[MATTROSE94]

6. There won't be an election, because Trump overthrows Congress and declares himself President for Life with the backing of the military.

I agree as well. I honestly think that Donald Trump will find a way to stay in power until he dies sometime in the 2030s or 2040s. After his death, Donald Trump Jr. will probably take over as President.

This is what completely irrational paranoia looks like. Trump has little to no control over his own advisors and cabinet members but he's going to take over the military and declare himself dictator?

A majority of rank and file service members are indoctrinated with pro-Trump propaganda and will likely back Donald Trump 100% over the objections of their senior officers if Donald Trump launches a coup after he loses reelection. Not to mention that Donald Trump will also be able to call on all the police departments throughout the country, as well as all right wing militia groups, to support him in a coup attempt.

[Crumpets]

Biden wins by around Obama 2012 levels. There are plenty of controversies around VBM, but Biden wins by enough that it's not all just down to, for example, Arizona's slow counting. Trump gives a half-hearted attempt to overturn some of the votes, but gives up before it becomes too much of a catastrophe for democracy.

[jamestroll]

Clear Biden win with some uncertainly due to vote by mail.

if VA releases early voting results at poll closing there will be a pool closing call in VA.

If no winner is declared on election night or the next day expect several weeks of violence in the United States with rural Republicans invading blue counties and suburbs and Trump using the armed forces to destroy cities. It will get ugly. Civil War 2.0

[Burke Bro]

This framing doesn't seem very neutral lol

Because the issue isn't very neutral. One candidate is openly sabotaging the postal service in an attempt to prevent vote by mail and one isn't. Try living in reality.

You’re right.  The issue isn’t very neutral when you have governors like Murphy using executive action to drop millions of unrequested mail-in ballots in New Jersey.  That’s essentially vote harvesting. 

What’s wrong with that? We’ve been doing that same thing here in Colorado for years now, and it’s great to have the flexibility. Not everyone has the time or interest to drive to the polling location and vote, or fill out a VBM application months in advance. Most of my friends and family members (most of whom, might I add, are Republicans) probably wouldn’t be voting if it weren’t for the flexibility that our hybrid system provides.

[dunceDude]

This framing doesn't seem very neutral lol

Because the issue isn't very neutral. One candidate is openly sabotaging the postal service in an attempt to prevent vote by mail and one isn't. Try living in reality.

You’re right.  The issue isn’t very neutral when you have governors like Murphy using executive action to drop millions of unrequested mail-in ballots in New Jersey.  That’s essentially vote harvesting. 

What's being referenced here is that Governor Murphy is mailing VBM ballots with pre-paid postage to all active registered voters. It's being compared with squeezing the post office to ensure voters *can't* vote by mail during a pandemic.

Your sentiment is truly anti-American.

What's anti-American is using executive action to force a transition to an entirely mail-in election without affecting the necessary and proper steps to protect ballot security.  In New Jersey it's especially egregious.  Almost 10 percent of all ballots from NJ's entirely mail-in May 12 local elections ended up getting disqualified and there were multiple reports of NJ mail-in ballots being delivered/distributed in ways that are not secure.   

Democrats are trying to steal the race by flooding the election with millions of unrequested, unsecure mail-in ballots.  The Nevada Democratic Party is suing to prevent the SoS from enforcing signature verification for mail-in ballots as required under duly-passed NV law.  A lawsuit from Democratic groups in Pennsylvania is seeking the seem.       

Democratic governors are using executive action to override the laws duly-passed by their legislatures, and instead wrestling control of the election away from voters in favor of politically-appointed judges.  That's the only certain outcome:  that a rush to universal VBM will be marred by hundreds of lawsuits (from both sides!) that will destroy any credibility of the November result no matter who wins.  And all for what?  Even Dr. Fauci says in-person voting is just as safe as going to the grocery store. 

YOUR GUY WANTS TO DELAY THE FREAKING ELECTION THERE ARE NOT TWO SIDES TO THIS.

[ShadowRocket]

Decisive Biden win with an Electoral College total in the range of 350-375 votes.

[Beet]

Trump wins. The enthusiasm for him is orders of magnitude greater than what was normal in American politics before him. Obama was said to be a phenom-- but the standard way to show support for Obama was the same as any other politician: a yard sign. Trump, on the other hand, has pioneered the use of gigantic flags, once only reserved for the stars and stripes. And not only one gigantic flag, not only two, not only three, but several of them often on the same boat, on the same house. The Trump flags and gear is so big, that often at a Trump rally it will hide the people and overlap with each other. Crowds will form on the sides of streets just to see his car go by. We've seen crowds form on the sides of streets for politicians before-- during a ticker tape parade, for example. Or when FDR died, crowds lined up on the sides of the railroad tracks to see his body pass. But we've never seen crowds just spontaneously gather simply to watch the president's car move from point A to point B. With Trump we do.

The enthusiasm for Trump, in short, is enormous. These people won't just donate their own hearts for Trump, they'll lie down on the road in front of oncoming cars for him not because it will help him, but simply to show how much they love him. The entire meaning of their lives has been compressed into the all-consuming purpose of showing their loyalty and love in self-immolation. In my view, a man with such support will not lose the election to 'ole Joe.

[Del Tachi]

This framing doesn't seem very neutral lol

Because the issue isn't very neutral. One candidate is openly sabotaging the postal service in an attempt to prevent vote by mail and one isn't. Try living in reality.

You’re right.  The issue isn’t very neutral when you have governors like Murphy using executive action to drop millions of unrequested mail-in ballots in New Jersey.  That’s essentially vote harvesting. 

What’s wrong with that? We’ve been doing that same thing here in Colorado for years now, and it’s great to have the flexibility. Not everyone has the time or interest to drive to the polling location and vote, or fill out a VBM application months in advance. Most of my friends and family members (most of whom, might I add, are Republicans) probably wouldn’t be voting if it weren’t for the flexibility that our hybrid system provides.

There's nothing wrong with VBM if that's what the law and systems in place have been set-up to support.  But single-handily implementing universal VBM by executive fiat (like Murphy has done) or using the pandemic as an excuse to eschew common sense ballot security measures (like forgoing signature verification) robs the electorate of the sanctity of their votes, and amounts to basically inviting courts to litigate who the next president will be.   

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump wins. The enthusiasm for him is orders of magnitude greater than what was normal in American politics before him. Obama was said to be a phenom-- but the standard way to show support for Obama was the same as any other politician: a yard sign. Trump, on the other hand, has pioneered the use of gigantic flags, once only reserved for the stars and stripes. And not only one gigantic flag, not only two, not only three, but several of them often on the same boat, on the same house. The Trump flags and gear is so big, that often at a Trump rally it will hide the people and overlap with each other. Crowds will form on the sides of streets just to see his car go by. We've seen crowds form on the sides of streets for politicians before-- during a ticker tape parade, for example. Or when FDR died, crowds lined up on the sides of the railroad tracks to see his body pass. But we've never seen crowds just spontaneously gather simply to watch the president's car move from point A to point B. With Trump we do.

The enthusiasm for Trump, in short, is enormous. These people won't just donate their own hearts for Trump, they'll lie down on the road in front of oncoming cars for him not because it will help him, but simply to show how much they love him. The entire meaning of their lives has been compressed into the all-consuming purpose of showing their loyalty and love in self-immolation. In my view, a man with such support will not lose the election to 'ole Joe.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-boat-parade-world-record-lake-murray-1515891

I'm telling you he's epically popular. His supporters don't talk to pollsters. Liberals are in for a shock on election night.

Can you explain to me why you are talking so authoritatively when you have a history of getting predictions wrong?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304667.msg6485940#msg6485940

You said that the GOP would have a 20 seat majority. Dems have a majority almost that big. You said that the GOP would have 55 Senate seats after the midterm. You made these predictions despite the evidence not being there, because you think you are way smarter than you actually are.

I just don't get why clowns like you, who are consistently so completely wrong, still speak with such authority. Don't you get embarrassed when you are so completely wrong? Don't you feel shame when you speak so confidently but then are completely contradicted by real data? Does it not make you think that *maybe* you are not as smart or intelligent as you think you are?

I feel like the average person does some self-reflection when they are proven wrong. You have not, and you are still acting as if you are some genius despite being proven wrong 6 times out of 10. Guess what Beet? A 40% grade is still failing. Your predictions are worse than flipping a coin. If you were my employee and I needed you to make decisions based on predictions in the future, I would have had you fired months ago.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trump wins. The enthusiasm for him is orders of magnitude greater than what was normal in American politics before him. Obama was said to be a phenom-- but the standard way to show support for Obama was the same as any other politician: a yard sign. Trump, on the other hand, has pioneered the use of gigantic flags, once only reserved for the stars and stripes. And not only one gigantic flag, not only two, not only three, but several of them often on the same boat, on the same house. The Trump flags and gear is so big, that often at a Trump rally it will hide the people and overlap with each other. Crowds will form on the sides of streets just to see his car go by. We've seen crowds form on the sides of streets for politicians before-- during a ticker tape parade, for example. Or when FDR died, crowds lined up on the sides of the railroad tracks to see his body pass. But we've never seen crowds just spontaneously gather simply to watch the president's car move from point A to point B. With Trump we do.

The enthusiasm for Trump, in short, is enormous. These people won't just donate their own hearts for Trump, they'll lie down on the road in front of oncoming cars for him not because it will help him, but simply to show how much they love him. The entire meaning of their lives has been compressed into the all-consuming purpose of showing their loyalty and love in self-immolation. In my view, a man with such support will not lose the election to 'ole Joe.

https://twitter.com/HKrassenstein/status/1295436301559369728?s=19

[Del Tachi]

This framing doesn't seem very neutral lol

Because the issue isn't very neutral. One candidate is openly sabotaging the postal service in an attempt to prevent vote by mail and one isn't. Try living in reality.

You’re right.  The issue isn’t very neutral when you have governors like Murphy using executive action to drop millions of unrequested mail-in ballots in New Jersey.  That’s essentially vote harvesting. 

What's being referenced here is that Governor Murphy is mailing VBM ballots with pre-paid postage to all active registered voters. It's being compared with squeezing the post office to ensure voters *can't* vote by mail during a pandemic.

Your sentiment is truly anti-American.

What's anti-American is using executive action to force a transition to an entirely mail-in election without affecting the necessary and proper steps to protect ballot security.  In New Jersey it's especially egregious.  Almost 10 percent of all ballots from NJ's entirely mail-in May 12 local elections ended up getting disqualified and there were multiple reports of NJ mail-in ballots being delivered/distributed in ways that are not secure.   

Democrats are trying to steal the race by flooding the election with millions of unrequested, unsecure mail-in ballots.  The Nevada Democratic Party is suing to prevent the SoS from enforcing signature verification for mail-in ballots as required under duly-passed NV law.  A lawsuit from Democratic groups in Pennsylvania is seeking the seem.       

Democratic governors are using executive action to override the laws duly-passed by their legislatures, and instead wrestling control of the election away from voters in favor of politically-appointed judges.  That's the only certain outcome:  that a rush to universal VBM will be marred by hundreds of lawsuits (from both sides!) that will destroy any credibility of the November result no matter who wins.  And all for what?  Even Dr. Fauci says in-person voting is just as safe as going to the grocery store. 

YOUR GUY WANTS TO DELAY THE FREAKING ELECTION THERE ARE NOT TWO SIDES TO THIS.

Name a single Republican governor who has suggested the national election be delayed.  It is Democratic governors (like Evers and Whitmer) who have tried to single-handily delay regularly-scheduled elections (and were then, in Evers' case, rebuffed by courts)

Screaming your point doesn't make it any more true, haha.  If you're unable to see that Democratic officials and operatives are trying to exploit the inherent insecurities of universal VBM, then you're being a partisan hack.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

6. There won't be an election, because Trump overthrows Congress and declares himself President for Life with the backing of the military.

I agree as well. I honestly think that Donald Trump will find a way to stay in power until he dies sometime in the 2030s or 2040s. After his death, Donald Trump Jr. will probably take over as President.

This is what completely irrational paranoia looks like. Trump has little to no control over his own advisors and cabinet members but he's going to take over the military and declare himself dictator?

A majority of rank and file service members are indoctrinated with pro-Trump propaganda and will likely back Donald Trump 100% over the objections of their senior officers if Donald Trump launches a coup after he loses reelection. Not to mention that Donald Trump will also be able to call on all the police departments throughout the country, as well as all right wing militia groups, to support him in a coup attempt.

Is there any evidence at all for this characterization of "a majority of rank and file service members" and "all the police departments throughout the country"?   Sure I'm guessing the larger part of them would prefer Trump to Biden, but they aren't going to risk anything like civil war over it.

[Beet]

Trump wins. The enthusiasm for him is orders of magnitude greater than what was normal in American politics before him. Obama was said to be a phenom-- but the standard way to show support for Obama was the same as any other politician: a yard sign. Trump, on the other hand, has pioneered the use of gigantic flags, once only reserved for the stars and stripes. And not only one gigantic flag, not only two, not only three, but several of them often on the same boat, on the same house. The Trump flags and gear is so big, that often at a Trump rally it will hide the people and overlap with each other. Crowds will form on the sides of streets just to see his car go by. We've seen crowds form on the sides of streets for politicians before-- during a ticker tape parade, for example. Or when FDR died, crowds lined up on the sides of the railroad tracks to see his body pass. But we've never seen crowds just spontaneously gather simply to watch the president's car move from point A to point B. With Trump we do.

The enthusiasm for Trump, in short, is enormous. These people won't just donate their own hearts for Trump, they'll lie down on the road in front of oncoming cars for him not because it will help him, but simply to show how much they love him. The entire meaning of their lives has been compressed into the all-consuming purpose of showing their loyalty and love in self-immolation. In my view, a man with such support will not lose the election to 'ole Joe.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-boat-parade-world-record-lake-murray-1515891

I'm telling you he's epically popular. His supporters don't talk to pollsters. Liberals are in for a shock on election night.

Can you explain to me why you are talking so authoritatively when you have a history of getting predictions wrong?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304667.msg6485940#msg6485940

You said that the GOP would have a 20 seat majority. Dems have a majority almost that big. You said that the GOP would have 55 Senate seats after the midterm. You made these predictions despite the evidence not being there, because you think you are way smarter than you actually are.

I just don't get why clowns like you, who are consistently so completely wrong, still speak with such authority. Don't you get embarrassed when you are so completely wrong? Don't you feel shame when you speak so confidently but then are completely contradicted by real data? Does it not make you think that *maybe* you are not as smart or intelligent as you think you are?

I feel like the average person does some self-reflection when they are proven wrong. You have not, and you are still acting as if you are some genius despite being proven wrong 6 times out of 10. Guess what Beet? A 40% grade is still failing. Your predictions are worse than flipping a coin. If you were my employee and I needed you to make decisions based on predictions in the future, I would have had you fired months ago.

What is this rant? Do you not realize that I got right predicting Trump's original election against the consensus of virtually the entire forum? I alone got that right. And it's a far more important prediction than how many House seats the Democrats had.

And again, I predicted that COVID-19 would be a pandemic long before almost anyone else. In fact, I was relentlessly bullied and my posts were even reported by people siding with someone who was attempting to attack me by arguing COVID-19 would be no worse than SARS.

I predicted the rise in populism way back in 2008. I could go on and on. I should get more credit, not less, not for having a perfect record of prediction (which I admit I don't, as nobody does), but for bravely going against the grain and making correct predictions about the major, earth-shattering events of our time.

But anyway this is not about me. This is about the evidence before us, which shows that people are extremely enthusiastic about Trump.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trump wins. The enthusiasm for him is orders of magnitude greater than what was normal in American politics before him. Obama was said to be a phenom-- but the standard way to show support for Obama was the same as any other politician: a yard sign. Trump, on the other hand, has pioneered the use of gigantic flags, once only reserved for the stars and stripes. And not only one gigantic flag, not only two, not only three, but several of them often on the same boat, on the same house. The Trump flags and gear is so big, that often at a Trump rally it will hide the people and overlap with each other. Crowds will form on the sides of streets just to see his car go by. We've seen crowds form on the sides of streets for politicians before-- during a ticker tape parade, for example. Or when FDR died, crowds lined up on the sides of the railroad tracks to see his body pass. But we've never seen crowds just spontaneously gather simply to watch the president's car move from point A to point B. With Trump we do.

The enthusiasm for Trump, in short, is enormous. These people won't just donate their own hearts for Trump, they'll lie down on the road in front of oncoming cars for him not because it will help him, but simply to show how much they love him. The entire meaning of their lives has been compressed into the all-consuming purpose of showing their loyalty and love in self-immolation. In my view, a man with such support will not lose the election to 'ole Joe.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-boat-parade-world-record-lake-murray-1515891

I'm telling you he's epically popular. His supporters don't talk to pollsters. Liberals are in for a shock on election night.

Can you explain to me why you are talking so authoritatively when you have a history of getting predictions wrong?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304667.msg6485940#msg6485940

You said that the GOP would have a 20 seat majority. Dems have a majority almost that big. You said that the GOP would have 55 Senate seats after the midterm. You made these predictions despite the evidence not being there, because you think you are way smarter than you actually are.

I just don't get why clowns like you, who are consistently so completely wrong, still speak with such authority. Don't you get embarrassed when you are so completely wrong? Don't you feel shame when you speak so confidently but then are completely contradicted by real data? Does it not make you think that *maybe* you are not as smart or intelligent as you think you are?

I feel like the average person does some self-reflection when they are proven wrong. You have not, and you are still acting as if you are some genius despite being proven wrong 6 times out of 10. Guess what Beet? A 40% grade is still failing. Your predictions are worse than flipping a coin. If you were my employee and I needed you to make decisions based on predictions in the future, I would have had you fired months ago.

What is this rant? Do you not realize that I got right predicting Trump's original election against the consensus of virtually the entire forum? I alone got that right. And it's a far more important prediction than how many House seats the Democrats had.

And again, I predicted that COVID-19 would be a pandemic long before almost anyone else. In fact, I was relentlessly bullied and my posts were even reported by people siding with someone who was attempting to attack me by arguing COVID-19 would be no worse than SARS.

I predicted the rise in populism way back in 2008. I could go on and on. I should get more credit, not less, not for having a perfect record of prediction (which I admit I don't, as nobody does), but for bravely going against the grain and making correct predictions about the major, earth-shattering events of our time.

But anyway this is not about me. This is about the evidence before us, which shows that people are extremely enthusiastic about Trump.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=262374.0

[ElectionsGuy]

What I learned from this thread and its polling options is that the hyperpolitical Democrats live in such agony and high stress every day because of the orange man that they cannot and will not accept an election where Trump wins. My prediction is actually that Trump will start out election night with big leads almost everywhere that will eventually collapse down into a deficit in the critical states or close enough to be contested for a recount. Both camps will cry fraud or suppression but the left will likely do it early when the results look better for Trump and then have to backtrack and have to justify why the results are legitimate after a few days/weeks.

Does Trump when all is said and done, EG? I know you take a much more...Trump-friendly(?) view of this election cycle and it's always interesting to read your input. 

I don't know, but probably not if I were to say right now. The thing is, my prediction right now is the exact same as the forum aggregate prediction: 319-219 Biden. I have also overestimated Democrats in much more races than I have overestimated Republicans in the three election cycles I have been active (2014, 2016, 2018). Since this forum is overwhelmingly anti-Trump, even moreso than any other Republican pre-2016, it gives credence to the most aggressive and loudest voices which are much rosier for Democrats and Joe Biden than that. That's why I try and push back, and may seem "Trump-friendly" because this forum is like a few members away from being a uniform echo chamber.

I'm already seeing misconceptions of where this race is at right now by many people believing the polls they want to instead of averages. Biden is doing about 3-4 points better than Hillary in battleground state polling overall and 4-5 points better nationally vs the end of 2016. That suggests potential further gap between the tipping point state and the national vote. Right now Joe Biden would likely win but this election isn't safe. Why? Because of the electoral college advantage Trump has and because of how systematically most polling has missed Republican victories (or the size of them) in key states since 2012. Trump is pretty much out of range to win the popular vote but he is still within range to win the states he needs for an EC victory for the amount of time that is still left.

I did this the other day but I ran current RCP and 538 averages and adjusted them for how off they were in 2016. It results in a Biden win but only by 1-2 points in the tipping point states. So right now his lead is enough to survive a 2016 style error, but only a little more. Most people will roll their eyes but it's fairly possible polls could be more inaccurate in 2020 than 2016. What happened in Australia in 2019 (where polls were a full 6 points off nationally) would lead to a decent Trump victory in the electoral college if that sort of thing would happen in 2020. I don't expect that to happen though, more realistically Trump needs another 2-4 point tightening (which has already happened since June)* and he's within winning range. That's what I think people need to understand, this election is NOT over, and there's still time to turn public opinion (mostly against Biden, because Trump's perception is very baked in).

*Another thing that has happened is the GCB has tightened from about D+8 to D+6 in many polls. That would suggest (if accurate) that Dems probably lose quite a few seats (but still hang on to the house).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT which was going R anyways is going to Safe R since the 2nd scandal among MT Ds. Just like Walsh plagiarized his military experience.  No wonder why they stopped polling this race

[Agonized-Statism]

Misread "Narrow Biden win, numerous reports of VBM issues" as "Narrow Trump win, numerous reports of VBM issues", but that would be my answer. I wouldn't call that suspicious necessarily. Maybe if the Democrats were running a more widely popular candidate. No, you and your fellow Brian Griffins don't count.

[KYRockefeller]

Biden wins a decisive victory BUT the GOP benefits from ticket splitting in Senate and House races so they don't go down with the ship as badly as say, 1932 or something.  In 2016, the presidential election mirrored Kentucky the previous year so I'll say the same plays out this time since Bevin got knocked off at the top but that didn't filter down to other races as much as the Democrats hoped.

However, Biden's support is about as soft as butter lingering in the sun for a day so a bad debate could send the race in another direction.