New Brunswick provincial election 2020

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Higgs definitely is ahead now, but much like David Peterson and Theresa May could backfire.  On other hand Harper in 2008 and Pallister last year didn't so could see it going either way.  Certainly if there is a spike it could backfire but with so few cases in Atlantic Canada risk probably less than say in BC or nationally, but still a gamble.  Israel in late May and Australia in mid June were almost as low as New Brunswick and now seeing spikes, especially bad in first one.

*Technically* (though not necessarily in the playing-out-into-reality sense), this is more like accord-deal-minority Peterson going into 1987 than solid-majority Peterson going into 1990 (or, for that matter, May's majority Tories going into 2017).

Even Harper in 2008 was something of a mixed bag; the Cons increased their seats but still couldn't hit the majority threshold.

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Also, lol at the thought of the NDP cracking 5%, might as well just add a couple of their points to the Greens or Liberals.

How much of that would be a token "Jagmeet bump"?  (That is, accounting for how the federal party's itself no longer so much the dead-party-walking it appeared to be going into the 2019 election--or, for that matter, at the time of the last NB election)

As far as the NBPA goes; well, shouldn't forget how the Confederation of Regions was a one-election wonder in the 1990s.

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Sad to see the NDP not run a single seat in the north. At one point, it looked like the party was going to make serious inroads there.

It's understandable and expected that the NBPA run no candidates in the fracophone seats, but any idea why has the NDP has decided to run no candidates in the north? It is clearly appears to be an informed decision rather than one decided by a lack of individuals expressing interest. Maybe it's tactical to protect the Liberal vote in their strongholds, just guessing here.

I doubt very much it was an "informed decision". Definitely lack of interest. If there was interest, no one past the vetting stage. The party has an interim leader, and was caught off guard, and is pretty much in shambles at the moment. Why *would* there be interest?

Well, one reason: the federal Yvon Godin years, when the party carried a bit of "Bloc Acadien" energy that sometimes carried over into above-average provincial results (most recently in that Bathurst East seat).  Though they were blanked in the only election where they offered a leader from that realm (2010)--and on the whole, it's like a tug among three impulses: that of an "urban" party (expressed through the Elizabeth Weir years), that of Acadian regionalism a la Godin, and an all-things-for-all-people Dominic Cardy generalism.

By the crude sound of things, it seems like the "urban party" impulse wants to be ascendant (a likely echo of Jagmeet's strengths in 2019, i.e. inner Montreal versus the rest of QC, that sort of thing)

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Scratch one Conservative candidate in a competitive seat (5 point margin last time).
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-roland-michaud-transphobic-post-blaine-higgs-1.5714770

Though the fact that the Liberal incumbent's running again means that however well the party's doing at large, there's nothing lost in voters defaulting on behalf of the tried-and-true.  (And whatever the margin he's sitting on, the seat's always had a natural Franco-Catholic Liberal lean)

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Liberals drop a candidate of their own over a bozo eruption:
https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1303124563207823361

And unlike Victoria-La Vallee, Saint Croix is likely rock-solid for the PCs anyway.

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Also, what's the situation with Miramichi?  The Tories were a distant third last time; but more because their support slid thoroughly in the PANB direction...

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If there is a further Franco-Green breakthrough anywhere, it'll be in Restigouche West, largely due to the weird different-drummer voting patterns around Saint-Quentin (anyone know what's the story there?  It also seems to be a place which shows exceptionally high ballot-spoilage in federal elections)

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Caitlin Grogan had the best NDP result with 6%. Who would've thought Quispamsis would be the best riding for the NDP I wasn't sure if her large online following would translate into votes. I guess it did a bit.

And for the leader to only get 1.3% is...eeesh.

And just generally, in the "Tory south", all those seats where the PCs got an Alberta-esque landslide over the three other parties bunched in teens and high single digits...

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It’s interesting to look back at twists of fate. In 2014 the New Brunswick NDP took 14% of the vote (like the Greens last night) but the then leader Dominic Cardy narrowly lost his seat while the Greens managed to elect their leader narrowly despite a much smaller provincial vote share. Imagine if the roles had been reversed and Cardy had won his seat in 2014 and Coons did not? IMHO if that had happened the NDP would be the strong third party in NB with a handful of seats and the Greens would be almost non-existent

Would Cardy being, well, Cardy not still have left an opening for the Greens and others?  Cargo-cult Blairism doesn't strike me as the most stable foundation to effectively build an NDP branch from scratch on.

Lurching from ultra-Blairism to ultra-Corbynism does seem a bit on brand for the modern NDP tbh.

Or what if they *both* won their seats?  (Though Cardy being Cardy, he could have party-jumped in office)