New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/Global_NB/status/1295414805189230593

And they're off!

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs has called a snap election after all-party talks about a potential agreement to avoid toppling his minority government until 2022 broke down.

This is Canada's first election since the pandemic and a very risky gamble on Higgs' part.

[Hatman 🍁]

the506 is crowdfunding a poll: https://www.gofundme.com/f/let039s-poll-new-brunswick

[JoeyOCanada]

I'm thinking Higgs gets a majority.

[brucejoel99]

Snap elections are risky even in the best of times. The pandemic only adds much more uncertainty. If there's an outbreak during this campaign, Higgs is gonna be screwed, & especially so if it's linked to campaign activities.

[Poirot]

New Brunswick has 15 active covid cases.

I imagine the government is benefiting from a covid bump like most.

The NDP has a 23 yeal old for interim leader who was in a little bit of panic at the prospect of an election. I guess that party won't be a factor.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-interim-ndp-leader-ready-election-1.5682661

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Brunswick is such an entertaining basket case, God bless it.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP has a 23 yeal old for interim leader who was in a little bit of panic at the prospect of an election. I guess that party won't be a factor.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-interim-ndp-leader-ready-election-1.5682661

The NDP isn't a real factor in NB provincial politics, the Greens are effectively the 'left-of-Liberal' party in the province.

They've started making real inroads in Acadian areas though, which only hurts the Liberals further. Higgs is probably looking at a majority right now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why are you all thinking Higgs has got this? Snap elections often backfire, spectacularly (though the public is often forgiving in minority situations). And we're in a pandemic to boot. From what I gather, people are pissed off at the prospect of having to go to the polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Quite frankly, we don't know what's going on in New Brunswick. The last poll in Wikipedia's database is from May. We don't know if the PC's are going to crush it, if the Libs are going to poll ahead, or if a third party is going to add to their caucus. That is why you should send a few Loonies to a Canadian version of the election twitter poll.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1295428154220335104?s=20

[Poirot]

Why are you all thinking Higgs has got this? Snap elections often backfire, spectacularly (though the public is often forgiving in minority situations). And we're in a pandemic to boot. From what I gather, people are pissed off at the prospect of having to go to the polls.

I don't know the issues in New Brunswick but by asking for dissolution I imagine the government thinks it's in a good position (or it could be they are afraid in a year or two things could be harder for them). In general people are more satisfied with governments at the moment. But maybe they don't want to go vote.

The PC had trouble with the Acadian vote before the pandemic. The party's only francophone who was deputy premier resigned earlier this year. Don't know if it has changed.

[mileslunn]

Higgs definitely is ahead now, but much like David Peterson and Theresa May could backfire.  On other hand Harper in 2008 and Pallister last year didn't so could see it going either way.  Certainly if there is a spike it could backfire but with so few cases in Atlantic Canada risk probably less than say in BC or nationally, but still a gamble.  Israel in late May and Australia in mid June were almost as low as New Brunswick and now seeing spikes, especially bad in first one.

[adma]

Higgs definitely is ahead now, but much like David Peterson and Theresa May could backfire.  On other hand Harper in 2008 and Pallister last year didn't so could see it going either way.  Certainly if there is a spike it could backfire but with so few cases in Atlantic Canada risk probably less than say in BC or nationally, but still a gamble.  Israel in late May and Australia in mid June were almost as low as New Brunswick and now seeing spikes, especially bad in first one.

*Technically* (though not necessarily in the playing-out-into-reality sense), this is more like accord-deal-minority Peterson going into 1987 than solid-majority Peterson going into 1990 (or, for that matter, May's majority Tories going into 2017).

Even Harper in 2008 was something of a mixed bag; the Cons increased their seats but still couldn't hit the majority threshold.

[CumbrianLefty]

New Brunswick has 15 active covid cases.

I imagine the government is benefiting from a covid bump like most.

The NDP has a 23 yeal old for interim leader who was in a little bit of panic at the prospect of an election. I guess that party won't be a factor.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-interim-ndp-leader-ready-election-1.5682661

"the party planned to hold its leadership vote last August, but only one candidate submitted paperwork to run and she was disqualified" - got to LOL at that, especially since it was *a year ago* now.

[MaxQue]

New Brunswick has 15 active covid cases.

I imagine the government is benefiting from a covid bump like most.

The NDP has a 23 yeal old for interim leader who was in a little bit of panic at the prospect of an election. I guess that party won't be a factor.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-interim-ndp-leader-ready-election-1.5682661

"the party planned to hold its leadership vote last August, but only one candidate submitted paperwork to run and she was disqualified" - got to LOL at that, especially since it was *a year ago* now.

They had planned another race in June, but it got postponed due to the health situation (3 people filled, it seems).

[MaxQue]

Former PC minister-turned Independent MLA for Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou Robert Gauvin has been selected as Liberal candidate in Shediac Bay-Dieppe (the vacant riding formely represented by PM Brian Gallant).

[the506]

Here's how I see things:

If you held this election out of the blue 2 weeks ago, it would be an easy PC majority. Higgs has handled COVID very well, Vickers is light on pretty much everything but name recognition, the Greens would probably get more of the "pox on both their houses vote", but flip 1-2 more seats, if that. The PANB would get Clegg'd and the NDP wouldn't even be worth talking about.

Higgs stunt this week changed everything. His sudden demands were unreasonable (get all 3 opposition parties to agree within 4 days or call an election). The whole thing seemed pre-planned, like he wanted an election and needed an excuse to blame the other parties. To their credit, the Greens and PANB seemed at least willing to negotiate in good faith, the Liberals took the bait.

I've never seen so much acrimony in NB politics, but nobody knows who to blame. PC and Liberal partisans are pointing the fingers at each other of course, the others are just generally pissed off. This is not going to be an election on issues or policies, but a horse race fought on spite.

I have no idea what's going to happen in the next 4 weeks. Does Higgs' rhetoric work and he gets his majority? Does Higgs get the blame and the Liberals reap the rewards? Or does Vickers stumble in the campaign too and we get the total chaos scenario (possibly including Premier David Coon?)

Hell, there's already even more momentum around the NDP than there ever was in 2018, a couple very vocal members of the online left in this province are running for them, including in Higgs riding. Won't come close to winning a seat but it might be a good place to start their rebuild. I just wish they and the Greens would stop sniping at each other and splitting the vote.

Oh yeah, please throw some $$$ at the polling gofundme. I fear most of the major pollsters are going to completely ignore this one, and the Narrative poll that's probably going to come out in the next week is likely going to be one of those month-long ones that's totally useless.

[DC Al Fine]

LOh yeah, please throw some $$$ at the polling gofundme. I fear most of the major pollsters are going to completely ignore this one, and the Narrative poll that's probably going to come out in the next week is likely going to be one of those month-long ones that's totally useless.

Maritime provincial elections are funny that way. Between the lack of decent polling, relative lack of voter polarization (although that's changing in NB), the candidate based races,  and the sometimes leftish Tories and rightish Liberals, it can feel a bit like watching a 1950's campaign in real time

[the506]

First side effect of no polls: Liberal partisan twitter seems to have convinced themselves the Greens are going to get destroyed, despite:

a) nothing that would remotely suggest that is happening (in fact, the Google Trends I've been monitoring suggest the opposite); and

b) the reason they give (students not being on campus) isn't borne out by the results from 2018. Kent North doesn't even have a university, they won every poll in Fredericton South (and the one covering UNB/STU was one of their worst); and the Greens won a big chunk of the polls in Memramcook-Tantramar that are nowhere near Mount A.

[Dipper Josh]

Hell, there's already even more momentum around the NDP than there ever was in 2018, a couple very vocal members of the online left in this province are running for them, including in Higgs riding. Won't come close to winning a seat but it might be a good place to start their rebuild. I just wish they and the Greens would stop sniping at each other and splitting the vote.

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1295439627030081539

I'm not surprised Coons did this but if the NDP wants to be taken seriously there may have to be a lot of outside the box thinking. Thomasin has a better opportunity than ever to do a loud, shoot first ask questions later, online heavy campaign that could make some noise. He needs to use the few resources on hand, like the young candidates you mentioned. Cait Grogan is smart, funny, and has a following. Use her! Put her in the spotlight! Do something!

I'm going to stop there before this post becomes another one of my "here's how the fix the NDP" rants but I really hope Thomasin experiments this election because they got nothing to lose.

[CumbrianLefty]

New Brunswick has 15 active covid cases.

I imagine the government is benefiting from a covid bump like most.

The NDP has a 23 yeal old for interim leader who was in a little bit of panic at the prospect of an election. I guess that party won't be a factor.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-interim-ndp-leader-ready-election-1.5682661

"the party planned to hold its leadership vote last August, but only one candidate submitted paperwork to run and she was disqualified" - got to LOL at that, especially since it was *a year ago* now.

They had planned another race in June, but it got postponed due to the health situation (3 people filled, it seems).

Yeah saw that, but still seems a pretty glacial timescale overall.

[the506]

I'm not surprised Coons did this but if the NDP wants to be taken seriously there may have to be a lot of outside the box thinking. Thomasin has a better opportunity than ever to do a loud, shoot first ask questions later, online heavy campaign that could make some noise. He needs to use the few resources on hand, like the young candidates you mentioned. Cait Grogan is smart, funny, and has a following. Use her! Put her in the spotlight! Do something!

as far as I'm concerned, Cait Grogan is the de facto leader of the NDP. She crashed a Higgs event yesterday and got the media coverage. Too bad she's running in Higgs riding, I think she may have had a chance somewhere in SJ proper.

Like I said before, the NDP won't come close to winning a seat but they can take this as a learning experience so they can really be ready next time.

[Dipper Josh]

I'm not surprised Coons did this but if the NDP wants to be taken seriously there may have to be a lot of outside the box thinking. Thomasin has a better opportunity than ever to do a loud, shoot first ask questions later, online heavy campaign that could make some noise. He needs to use the few resources on hand, like the young candidates you mentioned. Cait Grogan is smart, funny, and has a following. Use her! Put her in the spotlight! Do something!

as far as I'm concerned, Cait Grogan is the de facto leader of the NDP. She crashed a Higgs event yesterday and got the media coverage. Too bad she wasn't running in Higgs riding, I think she may have had a chance somewhere in SJ proper.

Like I said before, the NDP won't come close to winning a seat but they can take this as a learning experience so they can really be ready next time.

Do you think their showing in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore was a one-off? I was reading that their candidate last cycle was a well known local blueberry farmer that became disgruntled with the party after the election.

[DC Al Fine]

Leger is apparently in the field, so we should have some sort of idea of how the race is shaping up soon.

[Dipper Josh]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.