New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[DL]

Leger has a poll out to day that has the PCs leading with 40% Libs at 32%, Greens at 13% and PA and NDP in mid single digits.

Seems like a PC majority is al ost certain and the Green could lose a couple of their seats too.

[DL]

Looks like the Liberals will waste a lot of votes running up super majorities in the francophone areas of the province and losing everywhere else

[DL]

PCs have a slim path to a majority. Assuming they lose Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, they need 4 seats. From most to least likely in my opinion:

Carleton-Victoria (rural anglo seat they barely lost last time)
Moncton East (star candidate in former NB Liquor CEO Daniel Allain, he'd probably their only francophone MLA)
Moncton South (incumbent Liberal Cathy Rogers isn't running again, PCs are running city councillor Greg Turner)
Saint John Harbour (incumbent Liberal Gerry Lowe isn't running again, strong Green candidate may split the vote)
Fredericton-York (PANB incumbent but it's a tight 3-way race with them and the Greens)
Fredericton North (looking less and less likely, Greens seem to have this one wrapped up)
Miramichi Bay-Neguac (PCs are running former cabinet minister Robert Trevors but there may be too much of a francophone vote to get it back)
Fredericton-Grand Lake (Kris Austin's seat, this would have been more likely a few weeks ago but the PANB seems to have gotten some of its strength back)

I don't claim to know all the electoral geography of NB but wouldn't the Tories also have a shot at taking Memramcook-Tantramar from the Greens?

[DL]

OraclePoll: 42-33-18-6-2.

https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Conservation-Forestry-in-New-Brusnswick-Report_Sept8-1.pdf

If this is true, there has been practically no change in voting intention since the writ was dropped. This poll was commissioned by the Conservation Council of New Brunswick, which ironically was the organization David Coon used to head before he went into politics.

The Green vote skews young and the PC vote skews old. Given the differential turnout factor i predict that the PCs will get about two percent more and the Greens about two percent less than what that poll says

[DL]

Last election PCs + PANB was 44% and it seems more or less PCs have largely cannibalized the PANB thus polling close to the combined total.  Liberal vote has fallen a bit, most likely to Greens.  Seems though with big linguistic divides, a 10 point PC lead vs. 5 point Liberal lead is maybe only 5 seats difference as Liberals would need a bigger lead before they start making gains in Anglophone areas while PCs bigger lead before gaining in Francophone areas.

True but there are a couple of seats that are mixed Anglo/Franco in the Moncton area where I suspect the PCs could gain ground as well.

[DL]

It’s interesting to look back at twists of fate. In 2014 the New Brunswick NDP took 14% of the vote (like the Greens last night) but the then leader Dominic Cardy narrowly lost his seat while the Greens managed to elect their leader narrowly despite a much smaller provincial vote share. Imagine if the roles had been reversed and Cardy had won his seat in 2014 and Coons did not? IMHO if that had happened the NDP would be the strong third party in NB with a handful of seats and the Greens would be almost non-existent

[DL]

On top of that turnout among the young is always very low so they make up an even smaller share of the actual electorate

[DL]

What exactly do the Greens stand for in NB? They seem like just a second Liberal party and they don’t even talk much about the environment