New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[CumbrianLefty]

New Brunswick has 15 active covid cases.

I imagine the government is benefiting from a covid bump like most.

The NDP has a 23 yeal old for interim leader who was in a little bit of panic at the prospect of an election. I guess that party won't be a factor.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-interim-ndp-leader-ready-election-1.5682661

"the party planned to hold its leadership vote last August, but only one candidate submitted paperwork to run and she was disqualified" - got to LOL at that, especially since it was *a year ago* now.

[CumbrianLefty]

New Brunswick has 15 active covid cases.

I imagine the government is benefiting from a covid bump like most.

The NDP has a 23 yeal old for interim leader who was in a little bit of panic at the prospect of an election. I guess that party won't be a factor.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-interim-ndp-leader-ready-election-1.5682661

"the party planned to hold its leadership vote last August, but only one candidate submitted paperwork to run and she was disqualified" - got to LOL at that, especially since it was *a year ago* now.

They had planned another race in June, but it got postponed due to the health situation (3 people filled, it seems).

Yeah saw that, but still seems a pretty glacial timescale overall.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

[CumbrianLefty]

Liberals drop a candidate of their own over a bozo eruption:
https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1303124563207823361

How extremely "liberal" of him

[CumbrianLefty]

Though that 2% for PA is a bit different from their 7% in the last survey.

(albeit from a different pollster - could that also explain the Tory difference?)

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like the Green vote share is well below what the polling indicated

You can almost set your watch by that for most elections.

[CumbrianLefty]

Running on the programme and rhetoric of the average DSA chapter in an election in New Brunswick was certainly a... brave... choice.

NDP have about 350 members in the whole province, apparently. Isn't that a bit.......low??

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s interesting to look back at twists of fate. In 2014 the New Brunswick NDP took 14% of the vote (like the Greens last night) but the then leader Dominic Cardy narrowly lost his seat while the Greens managed to elect their leader narrowly despite a much smaller provincial vote share. Imagine if the roles had been reversed and Cardy had won his seat in 2014 and Coons did not? IMHO if that had happened the NDP would be the strong third party in NB with a handful of seats and the Greens would be almost non-existent

Would Cardy being, well, Cardy not still have left an opening for the Greens and others?  Cargo-cult Blairism doesn't strike me as the most stable foundation to effectively build an NDP branch from scratch on.

Lurching from ultra-Blairism to ultra-Corbynism does seem a bit on brand for the modern NDP tbh.