New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[Oryxslayer]

Quite frankly, we don't know what's going on in New Brunswick. The last poll in Wikipedia's database is from May. We don't know if the PC's are going to crush it, if the Libs are going to poll ahead, or if a third party is going to add to their caucus. That is why you should send a few Loonies to a Canadian version of the election twitter poll.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1295428154220335104?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

People's Alliance of New Brunswick won three seats last time and ended up backing the PC minority govt. Hard to forget about them. Expectations are that the NBPA will be cannibalized like what the Tories did to the Lib-Dems in 2015, but we don't have a poll to confirm this.

Also there are independents. Usually these guys are meaningless, especially when there are enough options on the ballot already to satisfy voter concerns and provide outlets for disgruntled voters. However, every now and again you get a serious Indie who tries to make a run for it. The NB NDP's brand is so bad, and kinda been supplanted by the Greens federally as the left's party of choice, that it wouldn't be surprising if Independents beat the NDP in certain seats. If nothing else, there will likely be one or more Independent in every seat, but we still have no guarantee that the NDP will run 49 candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

Sad to see the NDP not run a single seat in the north. At one point, it looked like the party was going to make serious inroads there.

It's understandable and expected that the NBPA run no candidates in the fracophone seats, but any idea why has the NDP has decided to run no candidates in the north? It is clearly appears to be an informed decision rather than one decided by a lack of individuals expressing interest. Maybe it's tactical to protect the Liberal vote in their strongholds, just guessing here.

[Oryxslayer]

Mainstreet: 38-32-19-7-4.

https://qc125.com/proj/2020-08-31-NB-Mainstreet-338Canada.pdf

The race is evidently tightening up.

I mean this still probably points towards a PC majority even though it is a slimmer margin than before the writ dropped. Remember, the PCs were able to form a government despite losing the popular vote by a considerable margin. Compared to 2018, the PCs have taken a bite out of their former partner the PANB, the Greens have taken some of the Lib vote, and there's a slight swing from Lib to PC. Now obviously there is more going on under the hood, but this suggests that the PCs are in position to almost sweep the Anglo areas at minimum, which is enough for a majority.

[Oryxslayer]

Scratch one Conservative candidate in a competitive seat (5 point margin last time).
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-roland-michaud-transphobic-post-blaine-higgs-1.5714770

Though the fact that the Liberal incumbent's running again means that however well the party's doing at large, there's nothing lost in voters defaulting on behalf of the tried-and-true.  (And whatever the margin he's sitting on, the seat's always had a natural Franco-Catholic Liberal lean)

I guess now's a good time to ask what people think the PC targets are. Despite them being up this time around with a substantial swing from last time, I can only really see them gaining a few seats. The People's Alliance seats, St. John Harbor, Fredrickton North, Carleton Victoria, and V-LV before this scandal. The PCs would need a favorable Lib-Green vote split or a star candidate to break through a French or SE seat. Obviously that is enough for a majority, but polarization precludes anything larger.

[Oryxslayer]

I noticed a recurring pattern from the CBC reports on campaign announcements. My recollection of the People's Alliance campaign themes: anti-bilingualism, poverty, rural healthcare funding. For the NDP: stopping that private abortion clinic from closing, defund the police. If thatt's not a commentary on shifting coalitions and political realignment, I don't know what is....

The Greens seem to have more of a mix of "old left" and "new left" issues it seems , which I think will benefit them.

I mean yeah, polarization eventually starts breeding clearer divides, so its only natural that the PCs, Libs, and the rest end up with more contrasting camps if the French/Anglo divisions keep retrenching. Right now you can still find a SoCon Lib and Laborite PC in NB if they speak the right language as DC Al Fine said. I however wouldn't be surprised if in a few cycles NB drifts away from the Atlantic Canada 'mindset,' thanks to the newer parties pushing the big two towards more divided ideological poles, even if those are more cultural rather than fiscal.

[Oryxslayer]

The crowdfunded poll is complete, and it finds a slightly differing picture than the other polls. The principle difference is that the NBPA has held up and pushed the PC's down. The rest is similar to other polls. Perhaps a case of previous PC voters choosing to send message to the PC's in their safe seats? The regional breakdown hints at that, since the PA have no seats and probably cannot get any seats in the rural South/West, and they have fallen from grace in Fredricton. That or its just the outlier and we throw it in the average...but its also the most recent poll.

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1304966850141474817?s=20

One interesting thing is the Greens and the Francophone vote. There have been rumors of the Greens making big plays among this group, and it helps that they will probably be the main opposition in the north. Perhaps we will see some weird vote splits in the East - the north is too Liberal for any third party to sneak through.

https://twitter.com/kylejhutton/status/1304969001517412359?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Hmm. Small sample size. Still making me nervous. But I suspect the difference comes down to how it was weighted.

Definitely in regards to the Greens. 20% is high enough for potential surprises, but that could simply be statistical noise from their high-teens polling average.

[Oryxslayer]

Prediction:

PC: 27
LIB: 17
Green: 5
NBPA: 0

This prediction is allowed to differ by 1 given weird votes splits potentially returning weird results.

If there are any surprises, I expect them to come from the Lib/Green side of the playing field.

[Oryxslayer]

Any link to results ?  Also will there be any live TV coverage of results ?

CBC TV usually live streams their coverage.

They have a YT, which is where I watch CBC coverage usually. On the topic, is there going to be an exit poll? They are done in the larger provinces, but the way the CBC counts results it quickly gets sidelined. Since seats and election agencies are more 'uniform' you can put a bar graph of seats where the parties lead but not projected to be the winner up, whereas in the US this would lead to some oddities because of counting speed/bias/weird counts because of gerrymandering.

Anyway, CBC main page link:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/new-brunswick/2020/results/

[Oryxslayer]

Polls have closed.

[Oryxslayer]

Initial results in 10 seats, mostly all safe and predictable results for the first polls. VL-V is one of those ten seats, and libs lead 'PC' by 4 votes.

Now up to 30 initial results. PA 1, Green 2.

[Oryxslayer]

Gagetown-Pen is the first seat called for Ross Wetmore.

[Oryxslayer]

Changes since last time in the seats right now:

Monocton East, Monocton South, St. John Harbor, Carleton Victoria, Lib -> PC lead

Fredricton York, NBPA -> PC

Shippagan-Lam-Miscou PC -> Lib

Green leading in Fredricton North, Lib -> Green

[Oryxslayer]

Right now there is an almost prefect Lib/Green vote split in St. John Harbor, letting the PC's through.

 Moncton center is a PC and Green tie at 27%, then a lib lead of 33%. Potential weird seat alert.

EDIT I say that and then greens take the lead in Moncton Center. Memramcook-Tantramar is a lib lead, but a tiny one and the greens were leading for a while.

[Oryxslayer]

NBPA is projected to hold Fredricton Grand Lake. There goes my prediction.

[Oryxslayer]

CBC just showed a regional swing scoreboard for the PC's. The PC's have a swing in their favor >10% in all regions except the east wheich has a swing of 7%, and the north where the PC's have slid backwards by 3%. All compared to 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

David Coon Projected to hold Fredricton South.

[Oryxslayer]

St. John Harbor projected PC win. 11 seats left to call, mostly marginals or other seats that are changing parties right now.

Moncton Center flips back to Lib.

Fredricton North flips to PC.

Memramcook-Tantramar returns to Greens.

Greens not having a swell night.

[Oryxslayer]

Greens projected in Kent North.

Moncton South and East called for PCs.

8 Seats remain.

[Oryxslayer]

Only five seats now remain. Miramichi was called for the NBPA, Moncton Center for the Libs, and Fredricton York was called for the PC.

Seats remaining:

PC Lead: Carleton-Victoria over Libs, Moncton Northwest over Libs, Fredricton North over Green

Green: Memramcook-Tantramar over Libs

Lib: Miramichi Bay-Neguac over PC.

[Oryxslayer]

Fredricton North called for PCs.

[Oryxslayer]

All seats called. 27-17-3-2.