New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[CumbrianLefty]

Though that 2% for PA is a bit different from their 7% in the last survey.

(albeit from a different pollster - could that also explain the Tory difference?)

[DL]

OraclePoll: 42-33-18-6-2.

https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Conservation-Forestry-in-New-Brusnswick-Report_Sept8-1.pdf

If this is true, there has been practically no change in voting intention since the writ was dropped. This poll was commissioned by the Conservation Council of New Brunswick, which ironically was the organization David Coon used to head before he went into politics.

The Green vote skews young and the PC vote skews old. Given the differential turnout factor i predict that the PCs will get about two percent more and the Greens about two percent less than what that poll says

[jaichind]

Wow.  PA really got squeezed by PC in this poll

[warandwar]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/elections-new-brunswick-voting-campaign-trail-1.5715630

In very weird news, the candidate the Liberals dropped for making homophobic remarks, is an openly gay man who will marry a man in a few days. The candidate in question is continuing his campaign and will sit as an independent on the off chance he wins.

There was a lot going on there - Gays appropriating the rainbow from Christians? Something in the water up there...

[mileslunn]

Last election PCs + PANB was 44% and it seems more or less PCs have largely cannibalized the PANB thus polling close to the combined total.  Liberal vote has fallen a bit, most likely to Greens.  Seems though with big linguistic divides, a 10 point PC lead vs. 5 point Liberal lead is maybe only 5 seats difference as Liberals would need a bigger lead before they start making gains in Anglophone areas while PCs bigger lead before gaining in Francophone areas.

[the506]

CBC forum (basically a debate with no crosstalk) last night. Vickers was the big loser, none of the others really shone or screwed up enough.

https://www.facebook.com/161231191936/videos/3550669758310670/

[DL]

Last election PCs + PANB was 44% and it seems more or less PCs have largely cannibalized the PANB thus polling close to the combined total.  Liberal vote has fallen a bit, most likely to Greens.  Seems though with big linguistic divides, a 10 point PC lead vs. 5 point Liberal lead is maybe only 5 seats difference as Liberals would need a bigger lead before they start making gains in Anglophone areas while PCs bigger lead before gaining in Francophone areas.

True but there are a couple of seats that are mixed Anglo/Franco in the Moncton area where I suspect the PCs could gain ground as well.

[Oryxslayer]

The crowdfunded poll is complete, and it finds a slightly differing picture than the other polls. The principle difference is that the NBPA has held up and pushed the PC's down. The rest is similar to other polls. Perhaps a case of previous PC voters choosing to send message to the PC's in their safe seats? The regional breakdown hints at that, since the PA have no seats and probably cannot get any seats in the rural South/West, and they have fallen from grace in Fredricton. That or its just the outlier and we throw it in the average...but its also the most recent poll.

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1304966850141474817?s=20

One interesting thing is the Greens and the Francophone vote. There have been rumors of the Greens making big plays among this group, and it helps that they will probably be the main opposition in the north. Perhaps we will see some weird vote splits in the East - the north is too Liberal for any third party to sneak through.

https://twitter.com/kylejhutton/status/1304969001517412359?s=20

[brucejoel99]

If the result ends up looking like that poll come Monday, then it's gonna be one hell of a night.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Jeeez, this poll is much better for the Liberals than previous polls had indicated. Though their vote is still pretty inefficiently spread, with most of it going to the rural ridings up in the northeast.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the difference between our poll and the others comes down to how it was weighted. The sample itself leans pretty PC, but the regional weight really boosts the Liberals. The huge difference in how Anglos and Francos vote in the province means that being able to correctly weight for that becomes challenging. Getting it wrong can really throw off the topline numbers. I haven't seen that much swing toward the Liberals while we've been in field (though, there was a bit of an uptick today.. err Saturday), so that leads me to think the difference is in the methodology.

I originally had a language weight, but I tossed it, as it was weighing the Liberals even higher. I think having a regional weight is enough anyway. The language weight was based on the language the respondent took the survey in, but was weighted using census data to mother tongue/language used most often at home. It's not an apples to apples comparison, so it's problematic. Could be lots of Francophones doing the survey in English. Anyway, hopefully I'm not accused of herding, we're still an outlier (we'll see what Mainstreet's numbers are). It's still obvious from the regionals that the Tories have the seat advantage, and could still win a majority.

[toaster]

The language weight was based on the language the respondent took the survey in, but was weighted using census data to mother tongue/language used most often at home. It's not an apples to apples comparison, so it's problematic. Could be lots of Francophones doing the survey in English. Anyway, hopefully I'm not accused of herding, we're still an outlier (we'll see what Mainstreet's numbers are). It's still obvious from the regionals that the Tories have the seat advantage, and could still win a majority.

I would think using the language in which they completed the survey would be a better indicator of who is actually Francophone.  Census data for Francophones in minority settings tends to overestimate numbers given the push by French community/cultural groups to get anyone who speaks the language to identify it as their L1 for funding (and other) reasons.  Not sure this would be the case in the Edmundston and North-West area because it is majority francophone, but in Moncton, might play a role.  People like to identify with their heritage group (Francophone here) even if if is not the language they most commonly use. 

[Hatman 🍁]

The language weight was based on the language the respondent took the survey in, but was weighted using census data to mother tongue/language used most often at home. It's not an apples to apples comparison, so it's problematic. Could be lots of Francophones doing the survey in English. Anyway, hopefully I'm not accused of herding, we're still an outlier (we'll see what Mainstreet's numbers are). It's still obvious from the regionals that the Tories have the seat advantage, and could still win a majority.

I would think using the language in which they completed the survey would be a better indicator of who is actually Francophone.  Census data for Francophones in minority settings tends to overestimate numbers given the push by French community/cultural groups to get anyone who speaks the language to identify it as their L1 for funding (and other) reasons.  Not sure this would be the case in the Edmundston and North-West area because it is majority francophone, but in Moncton, might play a role.  People like to identify with their heritage group (Francophone here) even if if is not the language they most commonly use. 

I'm not sure, you may be right. But next time, I will try to add a question about mother tongue (same for Quebec) to ensure that a language weight will be doing the right thing. This poll didn't have the budget for any more questions, so I did what I could.

Speaking of which, I do suspect that Moncton will be closer than the poll suggests, as removing the language weight dropped the Liberal numbers there. Moncton, I think is hard to poll- looking back at our internal polling from 2018, our regional numbers were the most off there. And this time, the biggest shift in regional voting intentions (compared to 2018) is in Moncton. All the other regions have similar numbers to 2018. Again, this shift might just be explained on dropping the language weight, and not based on any actual shifts in vote intention.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1305171346247254017 Apparently there will be a Forum too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm. Small sample size. Still making me nervous. But I suspect the difference comes down to how it was weighted.

[Oryxslayer]

Hmm. Small sample size. Still making me nervous. But I suspect the difference comes down to how it was weighted.

Definitely in regards to the Greens. 20% is high enough for potential surprises, but that could simply be statistical noise from their high-teens polling average.

[adma]

If there is a further Franco-Green breakthrough anywhere, it'll be in Restigouche West, largely due to the weird different-drummer voting patterns around Saint-Quentin (anyone know what's the story there?  It also seems to be a place which shows exceptionally high ballot-spoilage in federal elections)

[brucejoel99]

Damn, this election polling has been so confusing. Guess we'll just have to wait 'til tomorrow night to find out what it all means.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been panicking about our numbers ever since I saw them last night, and Mainstreet's numbers make me even more anxious. I've been trying to compare the two polls the best I can. I think the big difference is the under 35 numbers. Very hard to poll this group, so a crapshoot as to who is correct. We both have the Greens winning them, but we have the Liberals in 2nd and they have the PCs in second. This group has a poor response rate, so it gets weighted up 2 or 3 times, which really has an affect on your top line numbers.

[the506]

No time to do the full riding writeups this time like I did in 2018, but here's my final outlook. It's based on my own proprietary model which incorporates not just polling data, but Facebook and Google trends which (I hope) gives it a better handle on local races that may not go the same way as the province.

Restigouche West   leaning GRN
I might be too bullish on the Greens in this one (I had it as a tossup as late as today), but they're running the same candidate (Charles Theriault) who came a strong 2nd in 2018, and the Greens have shot up on the north shore in the final weeks.

Campbellton-Dalhousie   solid LIB

Restigouche-Chaleur   solid LIB

Bathurst West-Beresford   likely LIB
No incumbent and a somewhat strong Green candidate takes this out out of the solid column.

Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore   solid LIB

Caraquet   solid LIB

Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou   solid LIB
With no Robert Gauvin, anyone who says the PCs still have a chance here should be disregarded.

Tracadie-Sheila   likely LIB
If the PCs had any traction at all on the north shore, their candidate Diane Carey, a well known local entrepreneur and consultant, could have taken this.

Miramichi Bay-Neguac   solid LIB
Maybe being too bullish on Lisa Harris here, with the PCs running former MLA Robert Trevors, but there's too much of a francophone population for him to win here.

Miramichi   LIB-PANB tossup
Kevin Vickers is running in Miramichi but is in a fight to win his seat. Michelle Conroy's victory for the PANB in 2018 was one of the biggest shockers of election night and she has been everywhere in the constituency ever since.

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin   leaning PC
Watch for a strong PANB showing here, like in 2018.

Kent North   solid GRN
Kevin Arseneau is up against former MLA Bertrand LeBlanc but he's made enough of a name for himself to hold on.

Kent South   likely LIB

Shediac Bay-Dieppe   solid LIB
Ex-PC Robert Gauvin is running here, Brian Gallant's former seat. With no Green candidate (she missed the filing deadline by 1 minute) I have this as the NDP's best riding.

Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé   leaning LIB
Strong candidates for both the Greens and PCs will eat into Jacques LeBlanc's margin but he should hold on.

Memramcook-Tantramar   leaning GRN
Megan Mitton won by only 11 votes last time but has established enough of a reputation here to expand her margin now, especially with the Green vote growing province-wide.

Dieppe   solid LIB

Moncton East   PC-LIB tossup
Former NB Liquor CEO and Dieppe councillor Daniel Allain is the PC candidate, he could be their token francophone if he's elected. I had him winning bigger earlier in the campaign but incumbent Liberal Monique LeBlanc has rebounded late.

Moncton Centre   leaning LIB
Liberal Rob McKee should be re-elected, but a surprisingly strong Green showing from Carole Chan could turn some heads on election night.

Moncton South   likely PC
With former Gallant finance minister Cathy Rogers stepping down, PC candidate and Moncton councillor Greg Turner looks to be the heavy favourite.

Moncton Northwest   likely PC

Moncton Southwest   PC-LIB tossup
My gut says the model is too bullish on the Liberals here, but incumbent Sherry Wilson's social conservatism has come up during the campaign and the Liberals are running one-time leadership candidate Rene Ephestion.

Riverview   solid PC

Albert   solid PC

Gagetown-Petitcodiac   leaning PC
Strong Green and PA candidates take this down to "leaning" status but I'd be shocked if Ross Wetmore loses.

Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins   solid PC

Hampton   solid PC

Quispamsis   solid PC
Blaine Higgs' seat. The NDP twitterati will be surprised when Cait Grogan fails to take 10% and possibly finishes behind the Greens.

Rothesay   solid PC

Saint John East   leaning PC
Fun fact: after Gauvin left caucus, incumbent Glen Savoie changed the pronunciation of his name from "Savoy" to try to pass himself off as the one francophone in caucus. Possibly a Liberal pickup under better circumstances, but their candidate has made some self-owns on social media.

Portland-Simonds   likely PC
Trevor Holder, who's spent the last 21 years in the legislature, is facing some stiff opposition from Liberal and Green candidates who will probably just split the vote.

Saint John Harbour   LIB-PC tossup
One of the most closely watched races in the province. Liberal Gerry Lowe, who won by 10 votes in 2018, is stepping down to return to city council. The new Liberal candidate is Alice McKim, a transgender high school teacher. The PCs are running Arlene Dunn, who's heavily involved in building trade unions. The Greens and NDP are also running strong campaigns. Conventional wisdom suggests a PC win with their gains in the Saint John area, but my online metrics are pointing to McKim.

Saint John Lancaster   leaning PC
The first issue that led to election speculation was taking away collective bargaining from nursing home workers last year. The minister involved, Dorothy Shephard, is running against the head of the relevant union, Sharon Teare. Strong Green campaign by Joanna Killen could affect the result too.

Kings Centre   likely PC

Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West   solid PC
What a difference 2 years makes. Andrea Anderson-Mason broke a 40 year Liberal stranglehold on part of this riding. This time, the Liberals couldn't even find a candidate til the filing deadline.

Saint Croix   likely PC
Former MP Greg Thompson won this seat in 2018 but passed away last year. The ensuing by-election was delayed due to COVID and eventually cancelled in favour of the general. PC candidate Kathy Bockus may win this one by default after the Liberals dumped their candidate (see upthread) and PA star candidate Rod Cumberland (who saus he was fired from his college teaching job for opposing glyphosate spraying) had a few bozo eruptions of his own come to light.

Oromocto-Lincoln   LIB-PC tossup
PC candidate Mary Wilson only won by 100 votes in 2018. This could be one of the province's few Liberal pickups. Steven Burns, who owns an IT firm and whose wife Sara was a police officer killed in the line of duty in 2018. Like Saint John Harbour, this is a seat where the online metrics point a different direction than conventional wisdom, and my model has less than a 1% difference between the 2.

Fredericton-Grand Lake   likely PANB
Kris Austin was probably in more trouble early in the campaign but *should* hold on with the party rebounding. His biggest opponent, Roy Wiggins, lost the nomination in Fredericton-York and was given Grand Lake as a consolation prize.

New Maryland-Sunbury   solid PC

Fredericton South   solid GRN
David Coon's seat. PCs are trying to beat him like the Liberals tried 2 years ago and will probably fail just as miserably.

Fredericton North   leaning GRN
Tight 3-way race. Green candidate Luke Randall, who owns an art supply store in Fredericton, blanketed the riding with signs early in the campaign and the other 2 major candidates needed time to catch up. Liberal Stephen Horsman seems to have checked out, and 2018 PC candidate Jill Green is back this time. NDP leader Mackenzie Thomason is also running here and I think the PC/Liberals best hope is he takes enough of the Green vote for one of them come up the middle.

Fredericton-York   GRN-PC-PANB tossup
Nobody believes me when I say the Greens have a chance here. But Melissa Fraser has blanketed the riding with signs and has more Facebook activity in than the PC and PA candidates combined. Google trends are in her favour too. PA incumbent Rick DeSaulniers is a strong 2nd in the sign and social war, but province-wide trends could put PC Ryan Cullins over the top anyway.

Fredericton West-Hanwell   leaning PC
Education minister Dominic Cardy has been attacked from pretty much all sides over everything under the sun (especially his strong stance on forced vaccinations), but his opposition is split enough (relatively strong Liberal and weak Green for the Fredericton area) that he should stick around.

Carleton-York   likely PC
Longtime PC MLA Carl Urquhart has stepped down, but Richard Ames doesn't seem to be in any trouble. Especially with the 2nd-place PANB losing steam from 2018.

Carleton   likely PC
Another riding with no incumbent that the PCs should probably hold anyway, though I've heard rumblings of a strong PA campaign.

Carleton-Victoria   PC-LIB tossup
Andrew Harvey is the only rural anglo Liberal in the province. The last 2 elections the PCs insisted they could knock him off, came close both times, but failed. Even if they do this time (and my hunch is they will), it won't be easy.

Victoria-La Vallée   solid LIB
The PCs dropping their candidate for transphobic Facebook posts sealed another term for Chuck Chiasson.

Edmundston-Madawaska Centre   solid LIB

Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston   solid LIB

Final prediction?

PC - 23
Liberal - 19
Green - 6
PANB - 1

[Harlow]

Higgs pulling a Theresa May would just be *chef's kiss*

[brucejoel99]

Hoping for that upset depriving the PC/PANB of a majority but that feels pretty unlikely at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

My prediction (this is more of a gut feeling than anything based on any modelling)
PC: 27
Lib: 18
Grn: 3
PA: 1

[Oryxslayer]

Prediction:

PC: 27
LIB: 17
Green: 5
NBPA: 0

This prediction is allowed to differ by 1 given weird votes splits potentially returning weird results.

If there are any surprises, I expect them to come from the Lib/Green side of the playing field.

[DC Al Fine]

My guess:

PC: 26
Lib: 17
Green: 4
PA: 2