New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[brucejoel99]

Mainstreet: 38-32-19-7-4.

https://qc125.com/proj/2020-08-31-NB-Mainstreet-338Canada.pdf

The race is evidently tightening up.

[Oryxslayer]

Mainstreet: 38-32-19-7-4.

https://qc125.com/proj/2020-08-31-NB-Mainstreet-338Canada.pdf

The race is evidently tightening up.

I mean this still probably points towards a PC majority even though it is a slimmer margin than before the writ dropped. Remember, the PCs were able to form a government despite losing the popular vote by a considerable margin. Compared to 2018, the PCs have taken a bite out of their former partner the PANB, the Greens have taken some of the Lib vote, and there's a slight swing from Lib to PC. Now obviously there is more going on under the hood, but this suggests that the PCs are in position to almost sweep the Anglo areas at minimum, which is enough for a majority.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet: 38-32-19-7-4.

https://qc125.com/proj/2020-08-31-NB-Mainstreet-338Canada.pdf

The race is evidently tightening up.

Actually makes little difference seat wise.  New Brunswick has very large linguistic divides so PCs need a 20 point lead in polls before you will see them getting over 30 seats due to weakness in Francophone areas.  By contrast they need to be trailing by significant margin before you see them losing a whole bunch of Anglophone areas.  So whether tied or 15 points ahead, only flips around 5 seats.

[DL]

Looks like the Liberals will waste a lot of votes running up super majorities in the francophone areas of the province and losing everywhere else

[JoeyOCanada]

Vickers fighting with the moderator about seeing his hand was so cringeworthy.

[DC Al Fine]

Vickers fighting with the moderator about seeing his hand was so cringeworthy.

Oh? What happened exactly?

[the506]

Debate on Rogers Cable. Even other than yelling at the moderator, Vickers was in way over his head. Thomason was surprisingly strong, the others didn't do anything special.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CEkOX2uaFA
The good bit is at the 1 hour 10 minute mark.

I don't think a lot of people watched this one, but there are 2 more on CBC and CTV next week.

[DC Al Fine]

Just watched the clip *cringe*

[adma]

Scratch one Conservative candidate in a competitive seat (5 point margin last time).
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-roland-michaud-transphobic-post-blaine-higgs-1.5714770

Though the fact that the Liberal incumbent's running again means that however well the party's doing at large, there's nothing lost in voters defaulting on behalf of the tried-and-true.  (And whatever the margin he's sitting on, the seat's always had a natural Franco-Catholic Liberal lean)

[Oryxslayer]

Scratch one Conservative candidate in a competitive seat (5 point margin last time).
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-roland-michaud-transphobic-post-blaine-higgs-1.5714770

Though the fact that the Liberal incumbent's running again means that however well the party's doing at large, there's nothing lost in voters defaulting on behalf of the tried-and-true.  (And whatever the margin he's sitting on, the seat's always had a natural Franco-Catholic Liberal lean)

I guess now's a good time to ask what people think the PC targets are. Despite them being up this time around with a substantial swing from last time, I can only really see them gaining a few seats. The People's Alliance seats, St. John Harbor, Fredrickton North, Carleton Victoria, and V-LV before this scandal. The PCs would need a favorable Lib-Green vote split or a star candidate to break through a French or SE seat. Obviously that is enough for a majority, but polarization precludes anything larger.

[the506]

PCs have a slim path to a majority. Assuming they lose Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, they need 4 seats. From most to least likely in my opinion:

Carleton-Victoria (rural anglo seat they barely lost last time)
Moncton East (star candidate in former NB Liquor CEO Daniel Allain, he'd probably their only francophone MLA)
Moncton South (incumbent Liberal Cathy Rogers isn't running again, PCs are running city councillor Greg Turner)
Saint John Harbour (incumbent Liberal Gerry Lowe isn't running again, strong Green candidate may split the vote)
Fredericton-York (PANB incumbent but it's a tight 3-way race with them and the Greens)
Fredericton North (looking less and less likely, Greens seem to have this one wrapped up)
Miramichi Bay-Neguac (PCs are running former cabinet minister Robert Trevors but there may be too much of a francophone vote to get it back)
Fredericton-Grand Lake (Kris Austin's seat, this would have been more likely a few weeks ago but the PANB seems to have gotten some of its strength back)

[the506]

Liberals drop a candidate of their own over a bozo eruption:
https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1303124563207823361

[adma]

Liberals drop a candidate of their own over a bozo eruption:
https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1303124563207823361

And unlike Victoria-La Vallee, Saint Croix is likely rock-solid for the PCs anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

Liberals drop a candidate of their own over a bozo eruption:
https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1303124563207823361

How extremely "liberal" of him

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals drop a candidate of their own over a bozo eruption:
https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1303124563207823361

How extremely "liberal" of him

Maritime politics for better or worse are stuck in the 70's as far as ideological sorting goes. You get leftish Tories and socon Libs that you wouldn't see in the rest of the North America or UK. Heck, I vote Liberal provincially  New Brunswick probably has the most pronounced ideological divide in Atlantic Canada, and you still get stuff like this.

[DL]

PCs have a slim path to a majority. Assuming they lose Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, they need 4 seats. From most to least likely in my opinion:

Carleton-Victoria (rural anglo seat they barely lost last time)
Moncton East (star candidate in former NB Liquor CEO Daniel Allain, he'd probably their only francophone MLA)
Moncton South (incumbent Liberal Cathy Rogers isn't running again, PCs are running city councillor Greg Turner)
Saint John Harbour (incumbent Liberal Gerry Lowe isn't running again, strong Green candidate may split the vote)
Fredericton-York (PANB incumbent but it's a tight 3-way race with them and the Greens)
Fredericton North (looking less and less likely, Greens seem to have this one wrapped up)
Miramichi Bay-Neguac (PCs are running former cabinet minister Robert Trevors but there may be too much of a francophone vote to get it back)
Fredericton-Grand Lake (Kris Austin's seat, this would have been more likely a few weeks ago but the PANB seems to have gotten some of its strength back)

I don't claim to know all the electoral geography of NB but wouldn't the Tories also have a shot at taking Memramcook-Tantramar from the Greens?

[the506]

Doubt it. Memramcook is too francophone and Sackville is too much of a college town.

[DC Al Fine]

I noticed a recurring pattern from the CBC reports on campaign announcements. My recollection of the People's Alliance campaign themes: anti-bilingualism, poverty, rural healthcare funding. For the NDP: stopping that private abortion clinic from closing, defund the police. If thatt's not a commentary on shifting coalitions and political realignment, I don't know what is....

The Greens seem to have more of a mix of "old left" and "new left" issues it seems , which I think will benefit them.

[DC Al Fine]

Doubt it. Memramcook is too francophone and Sackville is too much of a college town.

Yes. It's not totally unwinnable, but if the Tories win that seat, any talk of paths to a majority would be redundant.

[adma]

Also, what's the situation with Miramichi?  The Tories were a distant third last time; but more because their support slid thoroughly in the PANB direction...

[Oryxslayer]

I noticed a recurring pattern from the CBC reports on campaign announcements. My recollection of the People's Alliance campaign themes: anti-bilingualism, poverty, rural healthcare funding. For the NDP: stopping that private abortion clinic from closing, defund the police. If thatt's not a commentary on shifting coalitions and political realignment, I don't know what is....

The Greens seem to have more of a mix of "old left" and "new left" issues it seems , which I think will benefit them.

I mean yeah, polarization eventually starts breeding clearer divides, so its only natural that the PCs, Libs, and the rest end up with more contrasting camps if the French/Anglo divisions keep retrenching. Right now you can still find a SoCon Lib and Laborite PC in NB if they speak the right language as DC Al Fine said. I however wouldn't be surprised if in a few cycles NB drifts away from the Atlantic Canada 'mindset,' thanks to the newer parties pushing the big two towards more divided ideological poles, even if those are more cultural rather than fiscal.

[the506]

The Greens seem to have more of a mix of "old left" and "new left" issues it seems , which I think will benefit them.

Agreed. The Greens have emerged as the pragmatic left-wing party, the NDP the hardcore ideologues and Chapo types who think Bernie Sanders is too far right.

Yes. It's not totally unwinnable, but if the Tories win that seat, any talk of paths to a majority would be redundant.

If the PCs win Memramcook-Tantramar, we're talking 40+ seats.

Also, what's the situation with Miramichi?  The Tories were a distant third last time; but more because their support slid thoroughly in the PANB direction...

PANB seems to have held most of that support, so much so that from what I've heard Vickers is in a fight to win his own riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

As I announced on Twitter, we'll be going through on polling NB by tacking on a vote intention question on a recruitment survey. Since this is a crowdfunded poll, I'll make the raw data public, and you guys can parse through it to see if you see anything interesting going on at the local level (though, taken with a grain of salt considering the number of cases per riding will be small).

[DC Al Fine]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/elections-new-brunswick-voting-campaign-trail-1.5715630

In very weird news, the candidate the Liberals dropped for making homophobic remarks, is an openly gay man who will marry a man in a few days. The candidate in question is continuing his campaign and will sit as an independent on the off chance he wins.

[the506]

OraclePoll: 42-33-18-6-2.

https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Conservation-Forestry-in-New-Brusnswick-Report_Sept8-1.pdf

If this is true, there has been practically no change in voting intention since the writ was dropped. This poll was commissioned by the Conservation Council of New Brunswick, which ironically was the organization David Coon used to head before he went into politics.