New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[the506]

yeah, we're spending way too much time talking about the NDP in this thread.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

People's Alliance of New Brunswick won three seats last time and ended up backing the PC minority govt. Hard to forget about them. Expectations are that the NBPA will be cannibalized like what the Tories did to the Lib-Dems in 2015, but we don't have a poll to confirm this.

Also there are independents. Usually these guys are meaningless, especially when there are enough options on the ballot already to satisfy voter concerns and provide outlets for disgruntled voters. However, every now and again you get a serious Indie who tries to make a run for it. The NB NDP's brand is so bad, and kinda been supplanted by the Greens federally as the left's party of choice, that it wouldn't be surprising if Independents beat the NDP in certain seats. If nothing else, there will likely be one or more Independent in every seat, but we still have no guarantee that the NDP will run 49 candidates.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

People's Alliance of New Brunswick won three seats last time and ended up backing the PC minority govt. Hard to forget about them. Expectations are that the NBPA will be cannibalized like what the Tories did to the Lib-Dems in 2015, but we don't have a poll to confirm this.

We do now.

https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1299066215797854209?s=21

[the506]

This poll was taken over 18 days. Narrative's writeup says:

"When looking at voting intentions pre- and post-election call, there are a few notable differences, in
that after the election was called voters indicated they are less likely to vote PC, more likely to vote for
the Green Party, and as likely to vote for the Liberals."

This jibes with the Google trends I've been monitoring, which right now according to my hastily whipped up model, say something along the lines of 35-28-20-10-7.

L'Acadie Nouvelle (who I assume commissioned the Leger poll) said they have one coming out Saturday morning. Mainstreet is in the field too....I know cause I was polled by them today.

[the506]

Post-election call breakdown (aka the one that matters, high MOE or no): 39-33-17-7-2.

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/1299072170212184064

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

People's Alliance of New Brunswick won three seats last time and ended up backing the PC minority govt. Hard to forget about them. Expectations are that the NBPA will be cannibalized like what the Tories did to the Lib-Dems in 2015, but we don't have a poll to confirm this.

We do now.

https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1299066215797854209?s=21

Yeah, the NBPA supporters seem to be very comfortable with Higgs & the PCs, given how Higgs has hinted at doing things that they want (e.g., reviewing the language requirements for governmental jobs) & how Higgs' instinct is to basically cut services to improve NB's financial situation. There's a lot Higgs/PCs & the NBPA have in common, so if I put myself in the shoes of an NBPA supporter, why would I waste my vote on them instead of the PCs?

Also, lol at the thought of the NDP cracking 5%, might as well just add a couple of their points to the Greens or Liberals.

[adma]

Also, lol at the thought of the NDP cracking 5%, might as well just add a couple of their points to the Greens or Liberals.

How much of that would be a token "Jagmeet bump"?  (That is, accounting for how the federal party's itself no longer so much the dead-party-walking it appeared to be going into the 2019 election--or, for that matter, at the time of the last NB election)

As far as the NBPA goes; well, shouldn't forget how the Confederation of Regions was a one-election wonder in the 1990s.

[Hatman 🍁]

yeah, we're spending way too much time talking about the NDP in this thread.

Never! Cait Grogan will bring them back to relevance!!!111

I must say, they've already nominated more candidates than in the last Newfoundland provincial election (and are polling just as well!), which was another example of the NDP not being prepared. And they still won 3 seats!

[the506]

yeah, I was thinking about that, but the "pox on both their houses" vote that got them those 3 seats is already going to the Greens and PA here.

[DC Al Fine]

This poll was taken over 18 days. Narrative's writeup says:

"When looking at voting intentions pre- and post-election call, there are a few notable differences, in
that after the election was called voters indicated they are less likely to vote PC, more likely to vote for
the Green Party, and as likely to vote for the Liberals."

This jibes with the Google trends I've been monitoring, which right now according to my hastily whipped up model, say something along the lines of 35-28-20-10-7.

L'Acadie Nouvelle (who I assume commissioned the Leger poll) said they have one coming out Saturday morning. Mainstreet is in the field too....I know cause I was polled by them today.

Any guesses as to why your model has PA in double digits while, the polls have them way down?

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

People's Alliance of New Brunswick won three seats last time and ended up backing the PC minority govt. Hard to forget about them. Expectations are that the NBPA will be cannibalized like what the Tories did to the Lib-Dems in 2015, but we don't have a poll to confirm this.

Also there are independents. Usually these guys are meaningless, especially when there are enough options on the ballot already to satisfy voter concerns and provide outlets for disgruntled voters. However, every now and again you get a serious Indie who tries to make a run for it. The NB NDP's brand is so bad, and kinda been supplanted by the Greens federally as the left's party of choice, that it wouldn't be surprising if Independents beat the NDP in certain seats. If nothing else, there will likely be one or more Independent in every seat, but we still have no guarantee that the NDP will run 49 candidates.

Now, with only a few hours left (it closes at 2PM today), numbers are:
PC: 49
Lib: 45
Grn: 41
PA: 33
NDP: 25
Ind: 5
KISS: 3

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

People's Alliance of New Brunswick won three seats last time and ended up backing the PC minority govt. Hard to forget about them. Expectations are that the NBPA will be cannibalized like what the Tories did to the Lib-Dems in 2015, but we don't have a poll to confirm this.

Also there are independents. Usually these guys are meaningless, especially when there are enough options on the ballot already to satisfy voter concerns and provide outlets for disgruntled voters. However, every now and again you get a serious Indie who tries to make a run for it. The NB NDP's brand is so bad, and kinda been supplanted by the Greens federally as the left's party of choice, that it wouldn't be surprising if Independents beat the NDP in certain seats. If nothing else, there will likely be one or more Independent in every seat, but we still have no guarantee that the NDP will run 49 candidates.

Now, with only a few hours left (it closes at 2PM today), numbers are:
PC: 49
Lib: 45
Grn: 41
PA: 33
NDP: 25
Ind: 5
KISS: 3

Now:
PC: 49
Lib: 48 (only missing Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West)
Grn: 42
PA: 35
NDP: 28
Ind: 6
KISS: 4

[MaxQue]

Deadline has passed, so I assume it's final numbers (?)

PC: 49
Lib: 49
Grn: 47
PA: 36
NDP: 30
Ind: 9
KISS: 4

[DC Al Fine]

Pretty solid job by the Greens/PA/NDP considering the circumstances.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sad to see the NDP not run a single seat in the north. At one point, it looked like the party was going to make serious inroads there.

[the506]

Pretty solid job by the Greens/PA/NDP considering the circumstances.

Yup, and in one of the 2 missing Green seats, they had one who backed out and the replacement (who I only first heard about yesterday) probably couldn't get enough signatures in time. In both ridings there's an NDP candidate so progressive voters at least have somewhere to go.

PA was never going to run in most of those northern Acadian seats anyway.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not surprised Coons did this but if the NDP wants to be taken seriously there may have to be a lot of outside the box thinking. Thomasin has a better opportunity than ever to do a loud, shoot first ask questions later, online heavy campaign that could make some noise. He needs to use the few resources on hand, like the young candidates you mentioned. Cait Grogan is smart, funny, and has a following. Use her! Put her in the spotlight! Do something!

as far as I'm concerned, Cait Grogan is the de facto leader of the NDP. She crashed a Higgs event yesterday and got the media coverage. Too bad she wasn't running in Higgs riding, I think she may have had a chance somewhere in SJ proper.

Like I said before, the NDP won't come close to winning a seat but they can take this as a learning experience so they can really be ready next time.

Do you think their showing in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore was a one-off? I was reading that their candidate last cycle was a well known local blueberry farmer that became disgruntled with the party after the election.

The NDP don't appear to have a candidate, so yes

Pretty solid job by the Greens/PA/NDP considering the circumstances.

Yup, and in one of the 2 missing Green seats, they had one who backed out and the replacement (who I only first heard about yesterday) probably couldn't get enough signatures in time. In both ridings there's an NDP candidate so progressive voters at least have somewhere to go.

PA was never going to run in most of those northern Acadian seats anyway.

Story time: Ex-NDP MLA Paul MacEwan once started a regionalist/hard left party called Cape Breton Labour. In order to have the party name appear on the ballot, you had to run more candidates than Cape Breton had seats. They ran a few candidates on the mainland to hit the requirement, where they got something like 20 votes each.

[Oryxslayer]

Sad to see the NDP not run a single seat in the north. At one point, it looked like the party was going to make serious inroads there.

It's understandable and expected that the NBPA run no candidates in the fracophone seats, but any idea why has the NDP has decided to run no candidates in the north? It is clearly appears to be an informed decision rather than one decided by a lack of individuals expressing interest. Maybe it's tactical to protect the Liberal vote in their strongholds, just guessing here.

[DC Al Fine]

I noticed that Kris Austin is campaigning in his own riding today. Not a good sign for PANB.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sad to see the NDP not run a single seat in the north. At one point, it looked like the party was going to make serious inroads there.

It's understandable and expected that the NBPA run no candidates in the fracophone seats, but any idea why has the NDP has decided to run no candidates in the north? It is clearly appears to be an informed decision rather than one decided by a lack of individuals expressing interest. Maybe it's tactical to protect the Liberal vote in their strongholds, just guessing here.

I doubt very much it was an "informed decision". Definitely lack of interest. If there was interest, no one past the vetting stage. The party has an interim leader, and was caught off guard, and is pretty much in shambles at the moment. Why *would* there be interest?

[adma]

Sad to see the NDP not run a single seat in the north. At one point, it looked like the party was going to make serious inroads there.

It's understandable and expected that the NBPA run no candidates in the fracophone seats, but any idea why has the NDP has decided to run no candidates in the north? It is clearly appears to be an informed decision rather than one decided by a lack of individuals expressing interest. Maybe it's tactical to protect the Liberal vote in their strongholds, just guessing here.

I doubt very much it was an "informed decision". Definitely lack of interest. If there was interest, no one past the vetting stage. The party has an interim leader, and was caught off guard, and is pretty much in shambles at the moment. Why *would* there be interest?

Well, one reason: the federal Yvon Godin years, when the party carried a bit of "Bloc Acadien" energy that sometimes carried over into above-average provincial results (most recently in that Bathurst East seat).  Though they were blanked in the only election where they offered a leader from that realm (2010)--and on the whole, it's like a tug among three impulses: that of an "urban" party (expressed through the Elizabeth Weir years), that of Acadian regionalism a la Godin, and an all-things-for-all-people Dominic Cardy generalism.

By the crude sound of things, it seems like the "urban party" impulse wants to be ascendant (a likely echo of Jagmeet's strengths in 2019, i.e. inner Montreal versus the rest of QC, that sort of thing)

[DL]

Leger has a poll out to day that has the PCs leading with 40% Libs at 32%, Greens at 13% and PA and NDP in mid single digits.

Seems like a PC majority is al ost certain and the Green could lose a couple of their seats too.

[the506]

Not so sure, I don't think a majority is guaranteed with these numbers. If you look at the regionals, a lot of this seems to be running up the score in the seats they already have, much like the Liberals in 2018.

Assuming they lose Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, they need to flip 4 seats. They probably flip Fredericton-York. Moncton East and South could flip too, possibly Saint John Harbour or Victoria-La Vallee. Fredericton North seems to be slipping away (I think it's a LIB-GRN race right now). Not sure if they win those last ones, especially with the PCs apparently trending down.

Green vote is well concentrated in the Fredericton area and a handful of other seats. Coon is definitely safe, Arseneau probably is, Mitton could be in trouble.

Kris Austin would be the only one holds on for the PANB, and I'm starting to wonder about even that one. Fredericton-York looks lost, and Kevin Vickers is running in Miramichi...good luck with that.

[the506]

Mainstreet: 38-32-19-7-4.

https://qc125.com/proj/2020-08-31-NB-Mainstreet-338Canada.pdf