New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[Benjamin Frank]

My prediction
P.C 25
Liberal 18
Green 5
PanB 1

The P.Cs 'having' to drop their candidate in Victoria-La Vallee costs them a riding.

[njwes]

My prediction
P.C 25
Liberal 18
Green 5
PanB 1

The P.Cs 'having' to drop their candidate in Victoria-La Vallee costs them a riding.

From a center-right perspective, was the dropped candidate's transphobic comment actually bad or was it the sort of statement 80% of NB's electorate would agree with? I'd like to assume it must have been pretty heinous for a center-right party in a non-metropolitan province to drop him, but....

[Benjamin Frank]

My prediction
P.C 25
Liberal 18
Green 5
PanB 1

The P.Cs 'having' to drop their candidate in Victoria-La Vallee costs them a riding.

From a center-right perspective, was the dropped candidate's transphobic comment actually bad or was it the sort of statement 80% of NB's electorate would agree with? I'd like to assume it must have been pretty heinous for a center-right party in a non-metropolitan province to drop him, but....

I have no idea what others think of it, but you can see the meme he tweeted here:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/roland-michaud-provincial-election-1.5719457

As the article says, he blamed his past sexual abuse for misunderstanding what he was tweeting.  I really have no idea, but there was a close result in this riding in 2018, and I think if people wanted to vote for the P.Cs in that riding his explanation might have been acceptable for people who felt a need to rationalize voting for him, and I'm sure a lot of other people simply wouldn't have cared all that much, one way or the other.

Given the polling, had he not tweeted this meme, he obviously would have remained the P.C candidate and he very likely would have won.

[LabourJersey]

When will we have most of the results? late tonight or later this week?

[Hatman 🍁]

When will we have most of the results? late tonight or later this week?

Tonight, possibly as late as midnight. I think ridings can't report results until all of the polling stations in that riding are closed, and so if there are long lineups, there may be delays.

[Benjamin Frank]

When will we have most of the results? late tonight or later this week?

Tonight, possibly as late as midnight. I think ridings can't report results until all of the polling stations in that riding are closed, and so if there are long lineups, there may be delays.

There are also mail in votes.  I don't know when they'll all be counted or when they all have to be in by.

[jaichind]

Any link to results ?  Also will there be any live TV coverage of results ?

[Benjamin Frank]

Any link to results ?  Also will there be any live TV coverage of results ?

CBC TV usually live streams their coverage.

[Oryxslayer]

Any link to results ?  Also will there be any live TV coverage of results ?

CBC TV usually live streams their coverage.

They have a YT, which is where I watch CBC coverage usually. On the topic, is there going to be an exit poll? They are done in the larger provinces, but the way the CBC counts results it quickly gets sidelined. Since seats and election agencies are more 'uniform' you can put a bar graph of seats where the parties lead but not projected to be the winner up, whereas in the US this would lead to some oddities because of counting speed/bias/weird counts because of gerrymandering.

Anyway, CBC main page link:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/new-brunswick/2020/results/

[the506]

Any link to results ?  Also will there be any live TV coverage of results ?

All 3 local stations are doing live coverage, and they'll all be streaming somewhere. Either on their own sites or FB/YT.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/
https://globalnews.ca/new-brunswick/

I've noticed CTV gets the numbers in fastest but CBC has the best in-depth analysis.

[jaichind]

Another dumb question: When does the polls close?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Another dumb question: When does the polls close?

8 PM Atlantic Time (7 PM Eastern, 4 PM Pacific)

[Oryxslayer]

Polls have closed.

[Oryxslayer]

Initial results in 10 seats, mostly all safe and predictable results for the first polls. VL-V is one of those ten seats, and libs lead 'PC' by 4 votes.

Now up to 30 initial results. PA 1, Green 2.

[Oryxslayer]

Gagetown-Pen is the first seat called for Ross Wetmore.

[JerryArkansas]

Looks like it might not be a wipeout of PA.  Also this is coming in somewhat faster than I had thought it would be

[Oryxslayer]

Changes since last time in the seats right now:

Monocton East, Monocton South, St. John Harbor, Carleton Victoria, Lib -> PC lead

Fredricton York, NBPA -> PC

Shippagan-Lam-Miscou PC -> Lib

Green leading in Fredricton North, Lib -> Green

[Oryxslayer]

Right now there is an almost prefect Lib/Green vote split in St. John Harbor, letting the PC's through.

 Moncton center is a PC and Green tie at 27%, then a lib lead of 33%. Potential weird seat alert.

EDIT I say that and then greens take the lead in Moncton Center. Memramcook-Tantramar is a lib lead, but a tiny one and the greens were leading for a while.

[jaichind]

Looks like the Green vote share is well below what the polling indicated

[Oryxslayer]

NBPA is projected to hold Fredricton Grand Lake. There goes my prediction.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/DevonRowcliffe/status/1305649179365117953?s=19

[Oryxslayer]

CBC just showed a regional swing scoreboard for the PC's. The PC's have a swing in their favor >10% in all regions except the east wheich has a swing of 7%, and the north where the PC's have slid backwards by 3%. All compared to 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

David Coon Projected to hold Fredricton South.

[Oryxslayer]

St. John Harbor projected PC win. 11 seats left to call, mostly marginals or other seats that are changing parties right now.

Moncton Center flips back to Lib.

Fredricton North flips to PC.

Memramcook-Tantramar returns to Greens.

Greens not having a swell night.

[Oryxslayer]

Greens projected in Kent North.

Moncton South and East called for PCs.

8 Seats remain.