Dukakis in the Midwest and Bush in New England

[Keystone Phil]

I was checking out the state-by-state breakdown of the 1988 election and noticed some things that I found a bit odd: Bush broke 55% in Maine and received 63% in New Hampshire, states in Dukakis' backyard. I could kind of understand this but what made me question this was seeing Dukakis' strength in the Midwest. How could he lose over half of New England by comfortable margins yet with Iowa with 55% of the vote and received 47% of the vote in South Dakota!

What made him powerful in this region yet hold him back from picking up more New England states? Or maybe it was Bush's problem in states like Iowa and South Dakota?

[Sam Spade]

Dukakis' totals in the Midwest all had to do with the Farm Crisis of the mid-to-late 1980s and Dukakis' aggressive campaigning to deal with the problem (Bush and Reagan simply ignored it).

The totals in Maine and New Hampshire for Bush are roughly about the same margin away from the national totals as they were for Reagan in 1984.  There's nothing really surprising about that.  Plus, Bush simply played fairly well to Northeast Republicans and most of them were still Republicans at the time.

[True Democrat]

Dukakis' totals in the Midwest all had to do with the Farm Crisis of the mid-to-late 1980s and Dukakis' aggressive campaigning to deal with the problem (Bush and Reagan simply ignored it).

The totals in Maine and New Hampshire for Bush are roughly about the same margin away from the national totals as they were for Reagan in 1984.  There's nothing really surprising about that.  Plus, Bush simply played fairly well to Northeast Republicans and most of them were still Republicans at the time.

Even looking at 1984, Reagan somewhat underperformed in Iowa.

[phk]

Dukakis' totals in the Midwest all had to do with the Farm Crisis of the mid-to-late 1980s and Dukakis' aggressive campaigning to deal with the problem (Bush and Reagan simply ignored it).

The totals in Maine and New Hampshire for Bush are roughly about the same margin away from the national totals as they were for Reagan in 1984.  There's nothing really surprising about that.  Plus, Bush simply played fairly well to Northeast Republicans and most of them were still Republicans at the time.

Even looking at 1984, Reagan somewhat underperformed in Iowa.

Was there a Farm Crises in Iowa at the time?

[True Democrat]

Dukakis' totals in the Midwest all had to do with the Farm Crisis of the mid-to-late 1980s and Dukakis' aggressive campaigning to deal with the problem (Bush and Reagan simply ignored it).

The totals in Maine and New Hampshire for Bush are roughly about the same margin away from the national totals as they were for Reagan in 1984.  There's nothing really surprising about that.  Plus, Bush simply played fairly well to Northeast Republicans and most of them were still Republicans at the time.

Even looking at 1984, Reagan somewhat underperformed in Iowa.

Was there a Farm Crises in Iowa at the time?

Oh, I don't know.  I just assumed the 1988 farm crisis started around 1984.  I mean, doesn't Iowa seem like it would be a Reagan type of state?

[jerusalemcar5]

I think that Dukakis was such an uninspiring candidate he kept the Democrats at home.  Plus, Massachusetts and New Hampshire could very well be in different regions.  Massachusetts/Rhode Island/Connecticut are more uppity liberal states, while Maine/New Hampshire/Vermont are more down to earth libertarians who tend to vote for the best spoken and most active.

[Speed of Sound]

...

Welcome to the forum! 

[Gustaf]

In the 80s, old Republican areas had not yet realigned towards Democrats, but were fully prepared to vote Republican. As someone said Bush was exactly the kind of Republican whom Northeastern Republicans would like.

[Gustaf]

To be fair though, Bush won the Northeastern popular vote 50-49 and the Midwestern 52-48. EV was about 40-60 and 80-20 respectively.

[Cubby]

Dukakis' totals in the Midwest all had to do with the Farm Crisis of the mid-to-late 1980s and Dukakis' aggressive campaigning to deal with the problem (Bush and Reagan simply ignored it).

The totals in Maine and New Hampshire for Bush are roughly about the same margin away from the national totals as they were for Reagan in 1984.  There's nothing really surprising about that.  Plus, Bush simply played fairly well to Northeast Republicans and most of them were still Republicans at the time.

Even looking at 1984, Reagan somewhat underperformed in Iowa.

Was there a Farm Crises in Iowa at the time?

Yes, Iowa was the state hardest hit by the Farm crisis. Its population declined 5% that decade, very bad by US standards. Even in 1984 there was a pronounced swing to the Democrats which continued in 1988 and let Dukakis win that year.

[dazzleman]

In the past, the New England alignment was roughly Massachusetts and Rhode Island, against the rest of the region.  Connecticut also voted Republican that year.

Liberalism has spread through the region like a cancer, and now even New Hampshire voted Democratic in the last election.  Part of it is caused by migration of people from Massachusetts to southern New Hampshire.

As for the midwest, I would agree with what previous posters have said, and attribute Dukakis' stronger showing there to the farm crisis of the 1980s.  I remember Willie Nelson in 1985 had a concert called "Farm Aid" to help bankrupt farmers, so it was a real issue at the time.

[muon2]

In the past, the New England alignment was roughly Massachusetts and Rhode Island, against the rest of the region.  Connecticut also voted Republican that year.

Liberalism has spread through the region like a cancer, and now even New Hampshire voted Democratic in the last election.  Part of it is caused by migration of people from Massachusetts to southern New Hampshire.

As for the midwest, I would agree with what previous posters have said, and attribute Dukakis' stronger showing there to the farm crisis of the 1980s.  I remember Willie Nelson in 1985 had a concert called "Farm Aid" to help bankrupt farmers, so it was a real issue at the time.

A number of prominent singers highlighted the farm crisis. John Cougar Mellencamp's Rain on the Scarecrow from the 1985 album Scarecrow is one example.

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[nclib]

To be fair though, Bush won the Northeastern popular vote 50-49 and the Midwestern 52-48. EV was about 40-60 and 80-20 respectively.

What states are you including in the Northeast and Midwest?

[nclib]

Liberalism has spread through the region like a cancer, and now even New Hampshire voted Democratic in the last election.  Part of it is caused by migration of people from Massachusetts to southern New Hampshire.

Actually the Boston suburbs in New Hampshire swung slightly Republican. It was the areas near Vermont that swung Democratic.

[dazzleman]

Liberalism has spread through the region like a cancer, and now even New Hampshire voted Democratic in the last election.  Part of it is caused by migration of people from Massachusetts to southern New Hampshire.

Actually the Boston suburbs in New Hampshire swung slightly Republican. It was the areas near Vermont that swung Democratic.

OK.  I had always heard New Hampshire's shift toward the Democrats blamed on the influx of people from Massachusetts.

[© tweed]

Liberalism has spread through the region like a cancer, and now even New Hampshire voted Democratic in the last election.  Part of it is caused by migration of people from Massachusetts to southern New Hampshire.

Actually the Boston suburbs in New Hampshire swung slightly Republican. It was the areas near Vermont that swung Democratic.

OK.  I had always heard New Hampshire's shift toward the Democrats blamed on the influx of people from Massachusetts.

The Massachsettsites that leave MA are usually rich people that leave to escape the taxes.  Since they're rich and don't want to pay taxes, most aren't Democrats.

[Alcon]

Tweed is correct; polls generally show Massachustts immigrants to be the most conservative folks in New Hampshire (as well as Vermont).

[dazzleman]

Tweed is correct; polls generally show Massachustts immigrants to be the most conservative folks in New Hampshire (as well as Vermont).

Interesting.  Perhaps they're fleeing Massachusetts liberalism.

Still, I don't necessarily believe it.  Massachusetts has a history of an abundance of wealthy liberals.  The Boston suburbs are full of them.  In many ways, the suburbs are more liberal than the city itself, which still has a good number of white, working class voters who are relatively conservative socially.

[Gustaf]

To be fair though, Bush won the Northeastern popular vote 50-49 and the Midwestern 52-48. EV was about 40-60 and 80-20 respectively.

What states are you including in the Northeast and Midwest?

8 states a piece: New Jersey, New York and everything Northeast of that as Northeast, Minnesota, Iowa and everything East of that as Midwest (not including West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. which I consider to be border states.)

[nclib]

So you're including Pennsylvania in the Midwest?

[Alcon]

Tweed is correct; polls generally show Massachustts immigrants to be the most conservative folks in New Hampshire (as well as Vermont).

Interesting.  Perhaps they're fleeing Massachusetts liberalism.

Still, I don't necessarily believe it.  Massachusetts has a history of an abundance of wealthy liberals.  The Boston suburbs are full of them.  In many ways, the suburbs are more liberal than the city itself, which still has a good number of white, working class voters who are relatively conservative socially.

They are mostly freeing taxes.

You do not have to believe it, but it's what every poll that has asked the question has shown.

[Gustaf]

So you're including Pennsylvania in the Midwest?

Lot of questions with no comments here...

Yes, that would be correct. You want to put Pennsylvania in the Northeast? I guess a case for that could be made.

[nclib]

Lot of questions with no comments here...

Alright.

I guess your point is that Bush's numbers were better in the Midwest than was stated by an earlier poster and ditto for Dukakis in the Northeast. However (though I haven't done the math), I would expect the party gap between the Northeast and the Midwest to have been smaller in 1988 than in previous and more recent years.

As for Pennsylvania, I would have put in the Northeast, but either way's fine.

[dazzleman]

Tweed is correct; polls generally show Massachustts immigrants to be the most conservative folks in New Hampshire (as well as Vermont).

Interesting.  Perhaps they're fleeing Massachusetts liberalism.

Still, I don't necessarily believe it.  Massachusetts has a history of an abundance of wealthy liberals.  The Boston suburbs are full of them.  In many ways, the suburbs are more liberal than the city itself, which still has a good number of white, working class voters who are relatively conservative socially.

They are mostly freeing taxes.

You do not have to believe it, but it's what every poll that has asked the question has shown.

If you say so, I believe it.  I have no better knowledge.

[WalterMitty]

Tweed is correct; polls generally show Massachustts immigrants to be the most conservative folks in New Hampshire (as well as Vermont).

Interesting.  Perhaps they're fleeing Massachusetts liberalism.

Still, I don't necessarily believe it.  Massachusetts has a history of an abundance of wealthy liberals.  The Boston suburbs are full of them.  In many ways, the suburbs are more liberal than the city itself, which still has a good number of white, working class voters who are relatively conservative socially.

They are mostly freeing taxes.

You do not have to believe it, but it's what every poll that has asked the question has shown.

they arent just fleeing taxes, but also the insane price of housing in the bay state.

a lot of blue collars and lower middle class people leave mass for nh.  the more professional white collars are going to the sunbelt (where the jobs have been going for the last 20 years)