''Gay 'boost' for Cameron''

[afleitch]

'A poll by PinkNews.co.uk has found a growth in support of the Conservative party amongst the LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgendered) community since the election of David Cameron as leader.

In a poll of 600 readers, selected to be demographically representative of LGBT people in England, a 10.2% increase in support for the Conservatives since 2005 was found, although Labour remains the party of choice for the pink vote.

In 2005, 42% of the gay community voted for the Labour party (declared votes of those interviewed) whilst 31.1% voted Liberal Democrat with just 19.2% voting Conservative.'


Full results

LAB 37.5%
CON 29.7%
LIB 27.3%

[Ben.]

Good news for the Conservatives, the electoral impact might be negligible… then again what about Hove?... but it’s a good sign that popular perceptions of the party are shifting in a more positive direction, and in the longer term I think the electorate in general is beginning to see the Conservatives as credible and reflective of the society in which ordinary people live, I’d say that this poll is probably suggestive of this.

I should of course add that the Tories still have a great deal of work to do though.   

[Harry Hayfield]

In 2005, 42% of the gay community voted for the Labour party (declared votes of those interviewed) whilst 31.1% voted Liberal Democrat with just 19.2% voting Conservative.'


Full results

LAB 37.5%
CON 29.7%
LIB 27.3%

So, that means:

Labour 42.0% -> 37.5% (-4.5% on 2005)
Conservatives 19.2% -> 29.7% (+10.5% on 2005)
Liberal Democrats 31.1% -> 27.3% (-3.8% on 2005)
Others 7.7% -> 5.5% (-2.2% on 2005)
Swing from Lab to Con of 7.5%

Which if applied to the UK as a whole on the 2005 boundaries gives us:

Conservatives 325 seats
Labour 236 seats
Liberal Democrats 55 seats
SNP 5 seats
Plaid Cymru 4 seats
Others 21 seats
Conservative majority of 4

Forecast for Brighton, Pavilion (constituency with the highest percentage of gay voters)

Con 31%
Lab 28%
Green 22%
Lib Dem 16%
UKIP 1%
Others 1%

Con gain from Lab on a swing of 7.5%

[Harry Hayfield]

Good news for the Conservatives, the electoral impact might be negligible… then again what about Hove?... but it’s a good sign that popular perceptions of the party are shifting in a more positive direction, and in the longer term I think the electorate in general is beginning to see the Conservatives as credible and reflective of the society in which ordinary people live, I’d say that this poll is probably suggestive of this.

I should of course add that the Tories still have a great deal of work to do though.   

Forecast for Hove

Con 44%
Lab 30%
Lib Dem 18%
Green 6%
UKIP 1%
Others 1%

Con gain from Lab on a swing of 7.5%

[afleitch]

I've been rummaging around the internet for the 2001 poll, carried out by another company I believe, but interesting none the less. Labour scored over 50% and the Tories less than 10% IIRC.

[Ben.]

Forecast for Brighton, Pavilion (constituency with the highest percentage of gay voters)

Con 31%
Lab 28%
Green 22%
Lib Dem 16%
UKIP 1%
Others 1%

Con gain from Lab on a swing of 7.5%

I'd rather like to see Keith Taylor elected as the UK's first Green MP


Interesting news about Hove though, i wonder if Boles will stand again?

I was surprised that a very strong Tory candidate like Boles, who (by all accounts) ran a very good campaign, ended up losing - I suspect that the failure of the Boles was more to do with the Tories populist national campaign turning off the white collar, middle class, liberal voters of a place like Hove, rather than anything Boles’ own campaign did or did not do, what’s more I expect Celia Barlow must have fought the seat hard to retain it.
 

[Democratic Hawk]

I noticed this on Teletext. Must be a sign that the Conservative Party is emerging from the Dark Ages

Dave

[Voice from the South West]

Interesting news about Hove though, i wonder if Boles will stand again?

I was surprised that a very strong Tory candidate like Boles, who (by all accounts) ran a very good campaign, ended up losing - I suspect that the failure of the Boles was more to do with the Tories populist national campaign turning off the white collar, middle class, liberal voters of a place like Hove, rather than anything Boles’ own campaign did or did not do, what’s more I expect Celia Barlow must have fought the seat hard to retain it.

Or, perhaps the touchy-feely "Modern" campaign flopped with the Hove electorate. Though considering the demographics it seems unlikely; far be it from be to suggest his campaign might not have been all what it was cracked up to be...