Seats most likely to get triaged by Republicans?

[QAnonKelly]

I was listening to a Politico podcast from a few weeks ago about how the GOP is really worried they're about to fall very deep into the minority. They think some of the edge suburban seats are truly in play.  The hosts specifically talked about how they're thinking about cancelling a huge ad buy in TX-7 because the district is zooming left, Fletcher won by 5 last time, and since the media market is expensive, they'd rather spend that money to protect others.

I wouldn't be surprised if they just give up on it here soon since things have only gotten worse since this was recorded. I've also noticed that I've barely seen anything about GA-07 from Republicans, only from Bordeaux herself. Granted I only really watch live TV at work but pretty much every other ad on the news today was either one about the reg senate race or the presidential one. I wouldn't be surprised if they've given up on it for similar reasons to TX-07.

[Roll Roons]

CLF has reserved airtime as follows:
— $3.5 million across Iowa (IA-01, IA-02, IA-03)
— $3.4 million in Upstate New York (NY-22, NY-24)
— $3.4 million in NYC (NJ-07, NY-02, NY-11)
— $3.2 million in Dallas (TX-24, TX-32)
— $3.2 million in Houston (TX-07, TX-22)
— $2.9 million in Albuquerque and El Paso (NM-02)
— $2.7 million in Miami (FL-26, FL-27)
— $2.5 million in Minnesota (MN-01, MN-02, MN-07)
— $2.3 million in LA (CA-25, CA-48)
— $2.3 million in Salt Lake City (UT-04)
— $2.1 million in Charleston and Savannah (SC-01)
— $2.1 million in Oklahoma City (OK-05)
— $2.1 million in Philadelphia (NJ-02, NJ-03, PA-01)
— $1.8 million in Norfolk (VA-02)
— $1.7 million in Atlanta (GA-06, GA-07)
— $1.2 million in Champaign and St. Louis (IL-13, MO-02)
— $1 million in Las Vegas (NV-03, NV-04)
— $775,000 in Cincinnati (OH-01)
— $650,000 in Richmond (VA-07)
— $650,000 in Omaha (NE-02)
— $500,000 in Montana (MT-AL)
— $500,000 in Detroit (MI-08, MI-11)
— $400,000 in Bakersfield and Fresno (CA-21)
— $400,000 in Harrisburg (PA-10)
— $250,000 in Maine (ME-02)

I doubt any incumbents get triaged this time, but it looks like they've already given up on TX-23. I wouldn't be surprised if they cut back in Vegas, since the GOP candidate in NV-03 is really weak. Same with Detroit, since the challengers in MI-08 and MI-11 don't seem that strong and are getting lapped by the incumbents in fundraising.

If what you're saying is accurate about TX-07, I could see them having similar feelings about GA-06 and TX-32. Possibly even GA-07, TX-22 and TX-24.

[NewYorkExpress]

NY-2 probably should get triaged if the Republicans have any common sense.

In terms of incumbents, I wouldn't be stunned if they cut Zeldin and Van Drew loose. The New York and Philadelphia Media Markets are outrageously expensive.

[Xing]

Are we talking about seats that they currently hold? If so, I think GA-07 and TX-23 will be the first on the chopping block. If things really go South, I could see them conceding TX-22 or TX-24. I doubt they’ll give up on their incumbents.

[QAnonKelly]

Are we talking about seats that they currently hold? If so, I think GA-07 and TX-23 will be the first on the chopping block. If things really go South, I could see them conceding TX-22 or TX-24. I doubt they’ll give up on their incumbents.

Either open one, ones they lost two years ago, or ones they hold.

[Roll Roons]

Are we talking about seats that they currently hold? If so, I think GA-07 and TX-23 will be the first on the chopping block. If things really go South, I could see them conceding TX-22 or TX-24. I doubt they’ll give up on their incumbents.

Either open one, ones they lost two years ago, or ones they hold.

If we're talking about those, they already seem to have given up on a bunch, at least for this cycle. VA-10, CO-06, MN-03, CA-10, CA-45, CA-49, AZ-02, KS-03, NJ-11, NY-19, IL-06, IL-14, some of the redrawn seats in PA.

[Calthrina950]

Are we talking about seats that they currently hold? If so, I think GA-07 and TX-23 will be the first on the chopping block. If things really go South, I could see them conceding TX-22 or TX-24. I doubt they’ll give up on their incumbents.

Either open one, ones they lost two years ago, or ones they hold.

If we're talking about those, they already seem to have given up on a bunch, at least for this cycle. VA-10, CO-06, MN-03, CA-10, CA-45, CA-49, AZ-02, KS-03, NJ-11, NY-19, IL-06, IL-14, some of the redrawn seats in PA.

VA-10 and CO-06 are gone for the Republicans, and I expect them to become more Democratic as the 2020s progress. Many of these other districts, however, are potentially within reach for them in future cycles (taking redistricting into account, of course).

[Ferguson97]

US Senate races in Colorado, Michigan, and Arizona.

[here2view]

GA-06

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Triage the whole House, so many Rs have long lost for Speaker Ryan not Kevin McCarthy,  that why so many retired

[Greedo punched first]

Of GOP-held seats: CA-25, GA-07 and TX-23. Possibly TX-22, TX-24, and IL-13.

[Fusternino]

TX-23 starting to look really inelastic, tbh.