Rank IA-SEN, MT-SEN, and KS-SEN from most likely to least likely to flip

[here2view]

MT > IA > KS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can definitely see a 1992 blue wave, since Harris galvanizes AA in Sunbelt stack,  Biden is up 11 in polls and that is more than 51 percent of the vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kansas isn’t really in play, Kobach was the Dems’ only realistic shot there. Marshall will win by double digits in the end.

Montana is more likely to flip but requires a national landslide for Biden and Biden keeping Montana at least within ten points. My guess right now is Daines wins by 8 and Trump by 15.

Iowa is by far the most likely. Biden should keep Iowa to a 5 point loss or so and could easily win it if he does just a bit better nationally than he is right now, and that’s more or less exactly where Greenfield should end up as well.

It’s pretty farcical how many people honestly think Dems are favored to win even one of these seats though, much less multiple.

You wish Bullock and Greenfield and Bollier are finished, they are all 5 pts behind not an insurmountable lead

[redjohn]

MT-Sen: Tossup
IA-Sen: Lean R
KS-Sen: Likely R

I think Bullock's approvals and previous wins in MT matter more than the current polling in IA showing a tight race between Ernst and Greenfield when we're evaluating which seat is more likely to flip. I wouldn't be surprised if Bullock trails in polling most of the cycle and ends up flipping the seat.

Greenfield, meanwhile, couldn't get on the ballot in 2018 in IA, and I do doubt that she can flip the seat in an environment where IA goes to Trump by a few points.

KS is an overrated pickup opportunity, especially with the primary results. Dems aren't winning KS unless they've also flipped MT+IA+ME+NC.

[YE]

Kansas isn’t really in play, Kobach was the Dems’ only realistic shot there. Marshall will win by double digits in the end.

Montana is more likely to flip but requires a national landslide for Biden and Biden keeping Montana at least within ten points. My guess right now is Daines wins by 8 and Trump by 15.

Iowa is by far the most likely. Biden should keep Iowa to a 5 point loss or so and could easily win it if he does just a bit better nationally than he is right now, and that’s more or less exactly where Greenfield should end up as well.

It’s pretty farcical how many people honestly think Dems are favored to win even one of these seats though, much less multiple.

I don’t really agree. Montana has a long enough history even recently of ticket splitting that such race is fairly decoupled from the precise presidential margin. I’d also be very surprised if Bullock did worse than Rob Quist.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can see Uncle Sam thinks this is gonna be a typical election but in 1992, 2008 and 2010, the outparty with elevated unemployment did very well

[UncleSam]

Kansas isn’t really in play, Kobach was the Dems’ only realistic shot there. Marshall will win by double digits in the end.

Montana is more likely to flip but requires a national landslide for Biden and Biden keeping Montana at least within ten points. My guess right now is Daines wins by 8 and Trump by 15.

Iowa is by far the most likely. Biden should keep Iowa to a 5 point loss or so and could easily win it if he does just a bit better nationally than he is right now, and that’s more or less exactly where Greenfield should end up as well.

It’s pretty farcical how many people honestly think Dems are favored to win even one of these seats though, much less multiple.

I don’t really agree. Montana has a long enough history even recently of ticket splitting that such race is fairly decoupled from the precise presidential margin. I’d also be very surprised if Daines did worse than Rob Quist.

Montana has a fair amount of ticket-splitting yes, but honestly in the national scope a seven point difference is quite significant. I could see Bullock overperforming by ten or twelve instead of seven, sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it by any means. Polarization is only increasing across the country and just because Montana is more resistant to it than most states doesn’t make it immune.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daines is only ahead by 5 pts

[ctrepublican512]

IA
MT
KS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are destined to lose, like 2008, 8-9 seat loss, Rs have a KS, MT, NC, IA and GA problem, after AZ, CO,  and, with GA runoffs, and Gov Kelly, Bullock and Cooper have a 60% approval rating and Ernst have been trailing in polls due our House delegation winning

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MT
KS
IA

[MillennialModerate]

Kansas hasn’t had a Dem Senator since the 30’s.

It’s Kansas last and any other answer is a joke.

Montana would be first just because of Bullocks appeal. Iowa is last because well IDK why. Ernst is obnoxious but for some reason they put up with her

[They not like us]

Most

IA
MT
KS

Least

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent defeating more than 6 incumbents and AZ, CO, GA and ME equals 6, and it will be 50 to 52 D Senators. None of these will flip

[PAK Man]

1. Iowa (Ernst wasn't prepared for a tough contest and assumed Greenfield would go away. Add the fact that she can't really do one-on-one events, which she's really good at, and Iowa's backlash against Trump plus recent polling showing her down, and you've got what I believe is the most likely to flip race)

2. Montana (Daines I'm sure had a ton of material ready to go against Bullock, so he's more prepared than Ernst. Recent polling also shows Daines leading. Also, Montana, despite having a ton of recent statewide Democratic office-holders, seems less elastic than Iowa).

3. Kansas (This is the most likely year that Kansas breaks its tradition of not electing Democrats to the senate, but it's still a tall order. Plus the GOP has had great luck with candidates from the 1st District winning statewide)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS maybe the biggest surprise,  it's an open Senate race, Ds need to get to 51 to ensure a majority, before the GA runoffs, you want to have a fallback option and you dont want a tied Senate with Leader McConnell as an obstructionist

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

IA - tilt D
MT - pure tossup but I'd give it to Daines at this point
KS - likely R but closer to lean than safe

[Left Wing]

Dems arent defeating more than 6 incumbents and AZ, CO, GA and ME equals 6, and it will be 50 to 52 D Senators. None of these will flip

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

From the polls, today, IA has the best chance of flipping

[LAKISYLVANIA]

From most likely to least:
1. IA
2. MT
3. KS

[Hope For A New Era]

A few weeks ago I would have done MT -> IA -> KS, but as more polls come in it's looking more and more like IA -> MT -> KS.

Also, Marshall will not win by double digits. It will be between Marshall +5 and Bollier +2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are moving onto other 2nd tier battlegrounds since the sex scandal of Bullock like TX, I got emails to that effect

[Liberal Lion]

Sex scandal? Do you mean “butt grab girl” on Tik Tok? No one out here has even heard of that (I’ve only seen it in atlas forums) and it seems kind of a stretch to be honest (no witnesses, no other “victims” etc.). She could be a Republican operative for all we know.

 There has been one poll showing Daines leading but every other poll has shown Bullock in the lead and he seems to have regained his footing lately and Daines has fired his worst attack ads and doesn’t seem to have drawn blood. The Daines leading Emerson poll was due to independent minded Montanans overreacting to the mask mandate. That has simmered down now. Still a tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA and KS are gonna flip in a blue wave. MT, TX, SC and KY are the last to flip in a blue wave, as Ds are looking for AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME and NC of 6 to 7 seats to flip. Due to the Bullock scandal

[Gustaf]

Kansas is a pretty obvious last. And I think IA is more likely to flip than MT.