NJ-02 (HMP internal): Biden +2

[VAR]

Biden 47%
Trump 45%

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/NJ-02_Poll_080920.pdf

[Tintrlvr]

It’s 44-44, or Biden 47-Trump 45 with leaners, according to the link.

This seat was Trump+4.6 in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Another poll finds Trump up by +1. Looks like this district is a dead heat at the prez topline, which is bad news for Trump since it means Biden is winning NJ by closer to 20 than 14.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293896593201156096

[psychprofessor]

Another poll finds Trump up by +1. Looks like this district is a dead heat at the prez topline, which is bad news for Trump since it means Biden is winning NJ by closer to 20 than 14.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293896593201156096

Obama carried NJ by almost 20 in 2012 due to Hurricane Sandy. It wouldn't surprise me to see Biden match or exceed that - and if Murphy allows universal mail ballots like the primary this could get ugly for the R congressional candidates.

[LabourJersey]

Another poll finds Trump up by +1. Looks like this district is a dead heat at the prez topline, which is bad news for Trump since it means Biden is winning NJ by closer to 20 than 14.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293896593201156096

Both these polls sound about right. The district is a toss up at both the congressional & the presidential level. PyschProfessor brings up the good point about how blue states like NJ are likely to really expand universal VBM, which could very well be a boon for Democrats running in swing districts of blue states.

[Oryxslayer]

Another poll finds Trump up by +1. Looks like this district is a dead heat at the prez topline, which is bad news for Trump since it means Biden is winning NJ by closer to 20 than 14.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293896593201156096

Obama carried NJ by almost 20 in 2012 due to Hurricane Sandy. It wouldn't surprise me to see Biden match or exceed that - and if Murphy allows universal mail ballots like the primary this could get ugly for the R congressional candidates.

Yes but polls like these which show Biden in a dead heat or worse (after the normal adjustments to internals) suggest that South Jersey isn't going to be one of these 'snap back' regions. It suggests that Biden's going to dominate in North Jersey and get his 20 points in the suburbs like Morris.

[Sir Mohamed]

Van Drew is among the GOPers I most want to lose.