KS-SEN SurveyUSA: Marshall+2
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Author Topic: KS-SEN SurveyUSA: Marshall+2  (Read 1234 times)
S019
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« on: August 12, 2020, 01:02:52 PM »

Marshall leads Bollier 46-44 in the Survey USA Kansas Poll

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b7efcf1a-9519-4b36-95f6-5a05b8cc7f6d
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2020, 01:04:27 PM »

"Safe R."
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2020, 01:05:43 PM »

Bollier favorability is 44-31% (+13)

Marshall favorability at 41-40% (+1)

Barb could actually win this race.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2020, 01:06:16 PM »

Among "100% certain to vote", the two are actually tied up.

Also, most of the undecideds stem from <40 voters, which bodes well for Bollier.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2020, 01:06:17 PM »

Marshall only has a net favorability rating of +1? Yikes.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2020, 01:10:05 PM »

Likely R to Lean R.
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2020, 01:11:31 PM »

About in line with what we're seeing in our preliminary results this week as well (though we haven't completed yet).
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2020, 01:12:08 PM »

Tilt R for now, but these undecideds look slightly more like Bollier voters than Marshall voters.
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WD
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2020, 01:12:32 PM »

But I was told Marshall was a Moderate ™, likable ™, strong candidate ™ who would make this Safe R, because Kansas is a Safe R state ™ that definitely isn’t trending D, because as we all know Kelly only won because it was a State race not a federal race™. Not to Mention that Safe R state Kansas™ hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since the 1930s ™
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2020, 01:13:24 PM »

About in line with what we're seeing in our preliminary results this week as well (though we haven't completed yet).

Who is „we“ ?
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VAR
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2020, 01:16:58 PM »

Among "100% certain to vote", the two are actually tied up.

Also, most of the undecideds stem from <40 voters, which bodes well for Bollier.

I’m not sure how much this really matters.

43% of undecideds are Trump voters, 16% are Biden voters. Age doesn’t matter that much when analyzing crosstabs, you should look at Party ID, education, and race (for diverse states).



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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2020, 01:17:17 PM »

But I was told Marshall was a Moderate ™, likable ™, strong candidate ™ who would make this Safe R, because Kansas is a Safe R state ™ that definitely isn’t trending D, because as we all know Kelly only won because it was a State race not a federal race™. Not to Mention that Safe R state Kansas™ hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since the 1930s ™

Outstanding analysis, but don’t forget that polarization™ will surely doom Bollier.

In any case, like I said in other thread: On paper Marshall should win it by an underwhelming margin, but I’m getting serious ND-SEN 2012 vibes from this one.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2020, 01:18:31 PM »

Among "100% certain to vote", the two are actually tied up.

Also, most of the undecideds stem from <40 voters, which bodes well for Bollier.

I’m not sure how much this really matters.

43% of undecideds are Trump voters, 16% are Biden voters. Age doesn’t matter that much when analyzing crosstabs, you should look at Party ID, education, and race (for diverse states).





People under 40 generally vote for Democrats, as they are in this poll. That is the largest subset of the poll that is undecided. Not to mention, other older age groups aren't necessarily swinging majorly one way or the other, either. So in totality, it's a close race to the end.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2020, 01:24:23 PM »

If polls still show this in October, I’ll buy that this is a Toss-Up race. I doubt Trump is only up 7 in KS, though.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2020, 02:42:43 PM »

Bollier is gonna win, the fact she is tied with Marshall
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2020, 02:46:02 PM »

While KKKobach would be have been a (too) controversial candidate, Marshall seems to be a lackluster candidate, while Bollier is running a strong campaign. This is winnable, but I think Marshall is still favored due to the state's partisan lean. However, it will be relatively close. Lean Republican for now.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2020, 03:31:59 PM »

This is too close for comfort but I still think Marshall wins by more than this. I'll be pretty troubled if it is still those close in two months, though, after Bollier has been beat up on the airwaves a bit like Marshall has.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2020, 04:13:57 PM »

If Bollier is staying tied in a red state, Bullock and Harrison can win, whom kneck and kneck with Daines and Graham
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2020, 07:46:23 AM »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Survey USA on 2020-08-09

Summary: D: 44%, R: 46%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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