KS-SEN SurveyUSA: Marshall+2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 27, 2023, 03:15:24 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  KS-SEN SurveyUSA: Marshall+2
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: KS-SEN SurveyUSA: Marshall+2  (Read 1093 times)
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,864
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 12, 2020, 01:02:52 PM »

Marshall leads Bollier 46-44 in the Survey USA Kansas Poll

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b7efcf1a-9519-4b36-95f6-5a05b8cc7f6d
Logged
MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,409
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2020, 01:04:27 PM »

"Safe R."
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,144
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2020, 01:05:43 PM »

Bollier favorability is 44-31% (+13)

Marshall favorability at 41-40% (+1)

Barb could actually win this race.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,200


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2020, 01:06:16 PM »

Among "100% certain to vote", the two are actually tied up.

Also, most of the undecideds stem from <40 voters, which bodes well for Bollier.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,109
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2020, 01:06:17 PM »

Marshall only has a net favorability rating of +1? Yikes.
Logged
AncestralDemocrat.
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,421
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2020, 01:10:05 PM »

Likely R to Lean R.
Logged
Pollster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2020, 01:11:31 PM »

About in line with what we're seeing in our preliminary results this week as well (though we haven't completed yet).
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,580
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2020, 01:12:08 PM »

Tilt R for now, but these undecideds look slightly more like Bollier voters than Marshall voters.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,485
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2020, 01:12:32 PM »

But I was told Marshall was a Moderate ™, likable ™, strong candidate ™ who would make this Safe R, because Kansas is a Safe R state ™ that definitely isn’t trending D, because as we all know Kelly only won because it was a State race not a federal race™. Not to Mention that Safe R state Kansas™ hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since the 1930s ™
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,175
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2020, 01:13:24 PM »

About in line with what we're seeing in our preliminary results this week as well (though we haven't completed yet).

Who is „we“ ?
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,768
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2020, 01:16:58 PM »

Among "100% certain to vote", the two are actually tied up.

Also, most of the undecideds stem from <40 voters, which bodes well for Bollier.

I’m not sure how much this really matters.

43% of undecideds are Trump voters, 16% are Biden voters. Age doesn’t matter that much when analyzing crosstabs, you should look at Party ID, education, and race (for diverse states).



Logged
MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,409
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2020, 01:17:17 PM »

But I was told Marshall was a Moderate ™, likable ™, strong candidate ™ who would make this Safe R, because Kansas is a Safe R state ™ that definitely isn’t trending D, because as we all know Kelly only won because it was a State race not a federal race™. Not to Mention that Safe R state Kansas™ hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since the 1930s ™

Outstanding analysis, but don’t forget that polarization™ will surely doom Bollier.

In any case, like I said in other thread: On paper Marshall should win it by an underwhelming margin, but I’m getting serious ND-SEN 2012 vibes from this one.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,200


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2020, 01:18:31 PM »

Among "100% certain to vote", the two are actually tied up.

Also, most of the undecideds stem from <40 voters, which bodes well for Bollier.

I’m not sure how much this really matters.

43% of undecideds are Trump voters, 16% are Biden voters. Age doesn’t matter that much when analyzing crosstabs, you should look at Party ID, education, and race (for diverse states).





People under 40 generally vote for Democrats, as they are in this poll. That is the largest subset of the poll that is undecided. Not to mention, other older age groups aren't necessarily swinging majorly one way or the other, either. So in totality, it's a close race to the end.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,747
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2020, 01:24:23 PM »

If polls still show this in October, I’ll buy that this is a Toss-Up race. I doubt Trump is only up 7 in KS, though.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 74,538
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2020, 02:42:43 PM »

Bollier is gonna win, the fact she is tied with Marshall
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,959
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2020, 02:46:02 PM »

While KKKobach would be have been a (too) controversial candidate, Marshall seems to be a lackluster candidate, while Bollier is running a strong campaign. This is winnable, but I think Marshall is still favored due to the state's partisan lean. However, it will be relatively close. Lean Republican for now.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,386
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2020, 03:31:59 PM »

This is too close for comfort but I still think Marshall wins by more than this. I'll be pretty troubled if it is still those close in two months, though, after Bollier has been beat up on the airwaves a bit like Marshall has.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 74,538
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2020, 04:13:57 PM »

If Bollier is staying tied in a red state, Bullock and Harrison can win, whom kneck and kneck with Daines and Graham
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,600
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2020, 07:46:23 AM »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Survey USA on 2020-08-09

Summary: D: 44%, R: 46%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 13 queries.