GA-SurveyUSA: Biden +2

[VAR]

Biden 46%
Trump 44%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4b9009c4-ef1d-4774-a211-0c4402738ec8

[wbrocks67]

I feel like every GA poll always has at least 10%+ other.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

LOL the Sen numbers though

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The fact that Georgia and Texas are still rated Leans R despite Biden leading most polls while Biden pretty much has to pull double digit leads for the pundits to consider a state Lean D really show how biased prognosticators are to Trump.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that Georgia and Texas are still rated Leans R despite Biden leading most polls while Biden pretty much has to pull double digit leads for the pundits to consider a state Lean D really show how biased prognosticators are to Trump.

Not to mention, the crosstabs benefit Biden here too for the undecideds, since there is a larger portion of <45 voters that are undecided/other versus 45+

[vileplume]

The fact that Georgia and Texas are still rated Leans R despite Biden leading most polls while Biden pretty much has to pull double digit leads for the pundits to consider a state Lean D really show how biased prognosticators are to Trump.

They're being cautious, understandably so after massively underestimating Trump and humiliating themselves last time. However if nothing shifts soon I imagine they'll be moved to 'tossup' (Georgia before Texas). I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia is projected as Lean D by election day though I imagine they'll chicken out on Texas and move it back to Lean R (if they eliminate tossups that is).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Larry Sabato and Cook keep it at 268 the Nate Silver motto. They waited last time to predict a Hillary Clinton landslide as well.

[pbrower2a]

The fact that Georgia and Texas are still rated Leans R despite Biden leading most polls while Biden pretty much has to pull double digit leads for the pundits to consider a state Lean D really show how biased prognosticators are to Trump.

The historical pattern of a state's voting has relevance to the upcoming election. Political culture does not change overnight, and Republicans will be counting the vote.

I was in Texas as it went from D to R, and I can show you the signs. Republicans started winning offices that they just did not win until then (John Tower, Bill Clements), and although the older and more established incumbents kept winning, their intended successors lost to newer Republicans. Some pols (Phil Graham, Ralph Hall) went from D to R, which was especially true in judicial races.

It is not bias; it is the expectation of inertia, ordinarily a reasonable assumption.   

[Horus]

The fact that Georgia and Texas are still rated Leans R despite Biden leading most polls while Biden pretty much has to pull double digit leads for the pundits to consider a state Lean D really show how biased prognosticators are to Trump.

More like they understand that thee shy Trump vote is real.

[Gass3268]

The fact that Georgia and Texas are still rated Leans R despite Biden leading most polls while Biden pretty much has to pull double digit leads for the pundits to consider a state Lean D really show how biased prognosticators are to Trump.

More like they understand that thee shy Trump vote is real.

The shy Trump vote is a myth that Nate Cohen debunked.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pure tossup. But a bit too much undecideds.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The fact that Georgia and Texas are still rated Leans R despite Biden leading most polls while Biden pretty much has to pull double digit leads for the pundits to consider a state Lean D really show how biased prognosticators are to Trump.

More like they understand that thee shy Trump vote is real.

What Trump voters in GA are shy? LOL.

[Tender Branson]

Pure tossup. But a bit too much undecideds.

6% is not "too much" undecideds.

[Fusternino]

How do you get a 39 R - 42 D - 19 I sample? Completely off from 2018 exit polls, junk it.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The fact that Georgia and Texas are still rated Leans R despite Biden leading most polls while Biden pretty much has to pull double digit leads for the pundits to consider a state Lean D really show how biased prognosticators are to Trump.

More like they understand that thee shy Trump vote is real.

What Trump voters in GA are shy? LOL.

Exactly I was driving in Hiram the other day and there was a huge bus with Trump on it selling stuff on the side of the road. There is no shy Trump voter in GA.

[pppolitics]

While this is great and all, GA is pretty inelastic

It remains to be seen if Biden bumps into a celling.