another terrorist attack?

[WalterMitty]

if we had another 9/11 magnitude terrorist attack months or weeks before the election, how would it affect the outcome?

[millwx]

It'd help Bush.  He's viewed as stronger in the war on terror.  The counter argument that such an attack proves he's failed would, in my opinion, successfully blunt the movement towards Bush.  But, still, I think it'd help him more than hurt him... esp. with FL one of the most likely to turn on this and FL being such a large battleground state.

It's sad that we have to even ask this question, but it's a fact of life.  Not only will it probably impact the debate and, thus, the outcome, but, after Madrid, that may be the whole point on the part of the attackers.  Incidentally, that's another reason I think it'll help Bush.  We Americans are a stubborn lot.  After Aznar went down after the Madrid bombings, I think many Americans would vote for Bush just to stick it to the terrorists... regardless of whether or not Bush is the best candidate for the war on terror.

[classical liberal]

The result would be this:

[??????????]

RightWing. Bush would win California and NY as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know. And I don't want to know.

[MODU]

I'm in agreement with Al.  Some thoughts (though relavant) are just not worth speculating on.  However, I am inclined to agree that Bush would be re-elected simply based on the outcry by the US when the Spain election was turned upside down.

[© tweed]

very hard to say...some may vote for Bush out of fear while others would question why two attacks happened in three years.

[angus]

if we had another 9/11 magnitude terrorist attack months or weeks before the election, how would it affect the outcome?

I think the GOP should just stick to the original plan of capturing Osama bin Laden about two weeks before the election.  Expecting Kerry to screw up and defeat himself is overly optimistic.  And counting on another crisis is downright morbid.  Just stick to the script and it'll be alright, boys.

[12th Doctor]

I think that most people would understand that we cannot prevent all terrorist attacks so when they do happen, we need someone who will react to them strongly.  Thus, Bush would be unstopable.  He'd probably win every state that is within 7 or 8 points now.

[Giant Saguaro]

With declining approval across the board, it could have the reverse effect and finish him off, politically.

I can hear it now: if we wouldn't have invaded Iraq... If we wouldn't have invaded Iraq... You know, if we hadn't invaded Iraq... Well if we had not invaded Iraq... If we hadn't wasted our resources, money, and time invading Iraq... If we wouldn't have diverted Intel from Afghanistan...

and on and on. The fact that 9/11 happened out of nowhere and we didn't do anything to provoke it rallied everyone to Bush.

[opebo]

Bush would win big.  Even if people blame Bush, the prospect of a Democrat, particularly Kerry, in office when we need to be defending ourselves and getting revenge would be rejected by most Americans.

By the way, given the above, and the natural motivations of the terrorists, I *expect* another attack before the election.

[zachman]

It depends on the credibility of conspiracy theories and timing.

[The Dowager Mod]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

[12th Doctor]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

What if it happened, as it will in all likelyhood, on June 6th?

[opebo]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

Doesn't matter if they're suspicious - when attacked, any group gravitates towards the leader who will kill the enemy.  That's Bush.

[zachman]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

What if it happened, as it will in all likelyhood, on June 6th?

Then we'll have time to get to the bottom of it and maybe start the June 6, commission by November.

[opebo]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

What if it happened, as it will in all likelyhood, on June 6th?

Why June 6th?

[zachman]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

Maybe Supersoulty is a terrorist or a terrorist abeter.

What if it happened, as it will in all likelyhood, on June 6th?

Why June 6th?

[California Dreamer]

The immediate short term effect would be a swing towards Bush.

But the length of time between the election and the attack would be a big factor. It gives people more time to question 'why did it succeed?'

Also how the Bush admin handles the attack and aftermath and investigation.  One reason the Spanish gov was voted out was that they were seen to be hiding the Moroccan link and trying to pin the train bombing on Basques.

[12th Doctor]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

Maybe Supersoulty is a terrorist or a terrorist abeter.

What if it happened, as it will in all likelyhood, on June 6th?

Why June 6th?

1000 days since 9/11.  The G 8 summit.  The celebration of Mohamad's birth, death, "assention" something like that.

[Lunar]

The worst thing for the Bush administration would be two more attacks.

Beyond that, I think it helps Bush as long as he doesn't react in a way that is inconsistant with the American populace.

[??????????]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

Maybe Supersoulty is a terrorist or a terrorist abeter.

What if it happened, as it will in all likelyhood, on June 6th?

Why June 6th?

1000 days since 9/11.  The G 8 summit.  The celebration of Mohamad's birth, death, "assention" something like that.

I hope we dont have an attack on my birthday! Anyway, its on a Sunday. I don't think terrorists MO are weekend attacks.

[Umengus]

if it happens in the last week of october then people will naturally be suspicious.

Doesn't matter if they're suspicious - when attacked, any group gravitates towards the leader who will kill the enemy.  That's Bush.

yes, you can ask to spanish pepople...

Bush has a advantage over kerry on security but with a attack, this advantage is finished. But I think the most important is when this attack will  happen. If it's today, kerry willl win. If it's 1 nov, Bush will win. Time for tears, time for questions.