Which D/R streak will be broken first?

[chubbygummy]

The longest D and R streaks. Which streak will break first?

[Hope For A New Era]

Hard to say. I’m really not sure why Gasconade is so solidly R. It really isn’t significantly different from neighboring counties. If anything, it should be more D - Hermann seems to be a bit of a tourist town (Missouri Rheinland).

[Former President tack50]

Starr, TX going R seems like the slightly more likely scenario.

Isn't the area actually trending R slightly? I suppose if urban vs rural polarization continues, eventually even areas like this one could theoretically flip

[TML]

Starr, TX going R seems like the slightly more likely scenario.

Isn't the area actually trending R slightly? I suppose if urban vs rural polarization continues, eventually even areas like this one could theoretically flip

But note the demographics in Starr: over 95% is Hispanic, while non-Hispanic Whites make up less than 1%. With demographics like this, it would require the Republican party to back off its racism/xenophobia if they want to make any significant inroads here.

[sofaboi]

Starr, TX going R seems like the slightly more likely scenario.

Isn't the area actually trending R slightly? I suppose if urban vs rural polarization continues, eventually even areas like this one could theoretically flip

But note the demographics in Starr: over 95% is Hispanic, while non-Hispanic Whites make up less than 1%. With demographics like this, it would require the Republican party to back off its racism/xenophobia if they want to make any significant inroads here.

Well, this take didn't age well.

[sofaboi]

Also Gasconade was winning. LOL now that we know what happened here.

[Hope For A New Era]

Hard to say. I’m really not sure why Gasconade is so solidly R. It really isn’t significantly different from neighboring counties. If anything, it should be more D - Hermann seems to be a bit of a tourist town (Missouri Rheinland).

Right. Perhaps I didn't think this through.

[Skill and Chance]

LOL Starr probably flips in 2024 now.

[Former President tack50]

Starr, TX going R seems like the slightly more likely scenario.

Isn't the area actually trending R slightly? I suppose if urban vs rural polarization continues, eventually even areas like this one could theoretically flip

I am #Vindicated!! (admittedly, this happened way, way faster than anyone predicted, including myself lol)

[SingingAnalyst]

I'd say Starr County, TX goes Republican first. Despite its 128-year Democratic streak, it has shown itself to be quite elastic. Gasconade, MO appears much more stable-- and at least from its Wikipedia page, strongly conservative.

Speaking of R streaks: Missaukee, Ottawa, and Sanilac Counties in MI have voted GOP going back at least to the 1880s-- with the exception of having voted for Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (which I count as keeping the streak alive). I pick Ottawa to flip to D far sooner than any of Missaukee, Sanilac, or Gasconade (but not as soon as Starr Co, TX flips R).

Do the 13 who voted Gasconade in the poll know something I don't? Does its GOP streak show signs of instability? Do any of the 13 think Gasconade will flip before Ottawa Co, MI?