AZ-Trafalgar: Trump+1

[n1240]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OGtHWhhMFEx9VollDKv6dsI-KEkucYOI/view

Trump 46
Biden 45
Jorgensen 3

Aug 5-8, 1013 LV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont know why they didnt poll Senate race

[n1240]

I dont know why they didnt poll Senate race

I'm not actually sure if I've seen a non-prez race poll from Trafalgar yet this cycle.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Trafalgar? More like Austerlitz.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

If that's the best this right leaning group can do then Trump is in major trouble here.

[Young Conservative]

I dont know why they didnt poll Senate race

they probably did and didn't release how poorly McSally is doing relative to Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont know why they didnt poll Senate race

they probably did and didn't release how poorly McSally is doing relative to Trump

McSally isnt out of it, by any means, Ermst or Tillis can win as well AZ isnt Safe D

Ducey was behind as well and came back to best Garcia and Kelly isnt winning by 9 pts

I know AZ and Sinema only won by 2 pts

[Alben Barkley]

So Biden is actually up by 7. Nice.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So Biden is actually up by 7. Nice.

No, he's not, since this poll includes Jorgensen

[Hammy]

So Biden is actually up by 7. Nice.

Came here to post this. Arizona was one of Trafalgar's worst performances in 2018 and managed to under-poll Dems by five points.

[Skye]

I know that Trafalgar got it right in 2016, but now that pollsters are compensating for the errors they made in 2016 (esp. weights by education), Trafalgar's polls having a consistent slant for GOP candidates should make us treat them like R internals at this point.

[Fusternino]

3rd and 7th districts way underrepresented or does that not matter with small sample size of subgroups?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden +6. Nice!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden still only has 268 EC votes in Larry Sabato Crystal Ball and Cook 278 EC votes. He hasnt crossed the blue wall. So, it's not a surprise the 259 red wall reaffirming itself in some polls

[Hammy]

I know that Trafalgar got it right in 2016, but now that pollsters are compensating for the errors they made in 2016 (esp. weights by education), Trafalgar's polls having a consistent slant for GOP candidates should make us treat them like R internals at this point.

They did well in some places, and poorly in others.

MI/PA/FL and I believe Wisconsin (I can't recall if they polled there in 2016) were very accurate but they had an awful R slant in AZ/NV/TX/GA and D slant in OH.

They're still good to watch in those states they did well in.

[Person Man]

This is probably the best Trump can do if Democrats stay home.

[Progressive Pessimist]

By Trafalgar standards, I'll take it!

[CellarDoor]

I wish we would stop talking about accuracy of pollsters, especially pollsters with lower quality methods, in previous elections.  When we talk about accuracy we are only looking at the last poll a polling outfit released for a given election.

What's to stop partisan polling outfits from releasing shady polls throughout the election cycle (pushing a narrative favorable to their party) only to revert to acceptible/normal practices for their final polls (on which they are judged)?

I'm not as cynical as most, but given how polarized our country has become and given what we have seen out of some polling outfits recently, I can't rule this out. 

[Hammy]

I wish we would stop talking about accuracy of pollsters, especially pollsters with lower quality methods, in previous elections.  When we talk about accuracy we are only looking at the last poll a polling outfit released for a given election.

What's to stop partisan polling outfits from releasing shady polls throughout the election cycle (pushing a narrative favorable to their party) only to revert to acceptible/normal practices for their final polls (on which they are judged)?

I'm not as cynical as most, but given how polarized our country has become and given what we have seen out of some polling outfits recently, I can't rule this out. 

By that logic we should just stop talking about polls entirely.

[CellarDoor]

I wish we would stop talking about accuracy of pollsters, especially pollsters with lower quality methods, in previous elections.  When we talk about accuracy we are only looking at the last poll a polling outfit released for a given election.

What's to stop partisan polling outfits from releasing shady polls throughout the election cycle (pushing a narrative favorable to their party) only to revert to acceptible/normal practices for their final polls (on which they are judged)?

I'm not as cynical as most, but given how polarized our country has become and given what we have seen out of some polling outfits recently, I can't rule this out. 

By that logic we should just stop talking about polls entirely.

I don't think so.  There are some pollsters that have a clearly defined, time tested methodology.  There are others that don't.  I'm just suggesting that we take the former seriously and dismiss the rest of the stuff.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I wish we would stop talking about accuracy of pollsters, especially pollsters with lower quality methods, in previous elections.  When we talk about accuracy we are only looking at the last poll a polling outfit released for a given election.

What's to stop partisan polling outfits from releasing shady polls throughout the election cycle (pushing a narrative favorable to their party) only to revert to acceptible/normal practices for their final polls (on which they are judged)?

I'm not as cynical as most, but given how polarized our country has become and given what we have seen out of some polling outfits recently, I can't rule this out.  

By that logic we should just stop talking about polls entirely.

I don't think so.  There are some pollsters that have a clearly defined, time tested methodology.  There are others that don't.  I'm just suggesting that we take the former seriously and dismiss the rest of the stuff.

How about dismissing/removing internals & any poll that's not rated A/B by FiveThirtyEight?

[CellarDoor]

I wish we would stop talking about accuracy of pollsters, especially pollsters with lower quality methods, in previous elections.  When we talk about accuracy we are only looking at the last poll a polling outfit released for a given election.

What's to stop partisan polling outfits from releasing shady polls throughout the election cycle (pushing a narrative favorable to their party) only to revert to acceptible/normal practices for their final polls (on which they are judged)?

I'm not as cynical as most, but given how polarized our country has become and given what we have seen out of some polling outfits recently, I can't rule this out.  

By that logic we should just stop talking about polls entirely.

I don't think so.  There are some pollsters that have a clearly defined, time tested methodology.  There are others that don't.  I'm just suggesting that we take the former seriously and dismiss the rest of the stuff.

How about dismissing/removing internals & any poll that's not rated A/B by FiveThirtyEight?

That's more or less how I look at the polls myself.  I put a lot of weight in Fox News/Monmouth/Siena etc.  The rest are fun to talk about but I don't give them any weight in my own mind.  There's been a little bit of an back-and-forth between Nate Silver and Nate Cohn on this today.  Nate Silver believes that the market for pollsters keeps pollsters on the level (i.e. pollsters care about their reputation so there is an incentive to do better).  Nate Cohn seems to believe that that is true for most polling outfits but there are some that are not so much.  I tend to agree with Cohn and don't think a simple average of the polling firms is the best estimate we can get.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The compiled map has Biden narrowing winning, and it doesnt show a EC landslide. The mistake we made in 2016 and 18 was that 279 wasnt the norm but 334 or 413 was the norm and that wasnt correct 279 is the norm and will be the norm and TX is still a Lean R state, so is OH, IA, FL and NC

[cg41386]

I dont know why they didnt poll Senate race

they probably did and didn't release how poorly McSally is doing relative to Trump

McSally isnt out of it, by any means, Ermst or Tillis can win as well AZ isnt Safe D

Ducey was behind as well and came back to best Garcia and Kelly isnt winning by 9 pts

I know AZ and Sinema only won by 2 pts

Clearly, you don’t, since Ducey was never behind.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McSally and Ernst are Air Force pilots as well as Kelly whom is an Astronaut. Bullock can unseat Daines, and so can Cunningham due to fact the Gov races can go Dem

As I said many times, NC which the PPP poll has it Biden +3 is the tipping pt race, not AZ, which Obama and Biden won in 2008