What would be your betting odds for the 2024 Dem. presidential nomination?

[Mr. Morden]

If you had to give betting odds for the 2024 D. nomination right now, before we even know who the 2020 VP nominee is, what odds would you give for each of the most likely possibilities?  (One assumes these odds are heavily correlated with your presumed odds for who Biden will pick for VP this week.)

Some possible scenarios we might end up with are....

1) Trump wins this November, in which case Biden's running mate might still end up as the 2024 nominee, though presumably not as likely as if she was the incumbent VP.

2) Biden wins this November and runs for a 2nd term.  (Presumably then winning renomination.)

3) Biden wins this November, serves a full term, but opts not to run for a 2nd term.  (His VP is probably the heavy favorite for the nomination in most cases, though maybe it's not totally clear if a newbie to electoral politics like Susan Rice is interested in running in this case.)

4) Biden wins this November, but doesn't serve a full term, due to death or resignation.  His VP becomes president and is able to run as the incumbent.  So similar to Scenario 3, but presumably with less chance of there being a significant challenger.

[brucejoel99]

Laying each scenario out:

1. If Trump wins, then it's Warren, regardless of whether or not she was his running mate this time around. She'd probably be the hugest force in the primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. The only other contenders I could see are Governors like Newsom or Inslee, but I'm not sure how popular they'd be & with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024. Harris would surely run again, but she's not as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the base as Warren is.

2. Biden easily wins the primary, facing only nominal opposition a-la Obama 2012.

3. The VP is very much the heavy favorite if they run. If they don't (like - as mentioned - Susan Rice just genuinely might not run), then it's Warren for pretty much the same reasons mentioned in my response re: Scenario #1. If Warren was the incumbent VP who (for some reason) opts not to run, then who knows? A very open primary.

4. The incumbent President easily wins the primary, facing only nominal (if any) major opposition (that is: potentially closer to a Gore 2000 scenario than an Obama 2012 scenario, but still an easy-ass win).

[rhg2052]

Laying each scenario out:

1. If Trump wins, then it's Warren, regardless of whether or not she was his running mate this time around. She'd probably be the hugest force in the primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. The only other contenders I could see are Governors like Newsom or Inslee, but I'm not sure how popular they'd be & with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024. Harris would surely run again, but she's not as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the base as Warren is.

2. Biden easily wins the primary, facing only nominal opposition a-la Obama 2012.

3. The VP is very much the heavy favorite if they run. If they don't (like - as mentioned - Susan Rice just genuinely might not run), then it's Warren for pretty much the same reasons mentioned in my response re: Scenario #1. If Warren was the incumbent VP who (for some reason) opts not to run, then who knows? A very open primary.

4. The incumbent President easily wins the primary, facing only nominal (if any) major opposition (that is: potentially closer to a Gore 2000 scenario than an Obama 2012 scenario, but still an easy-ass win).

I'm with you on most of this. I think that in any open field scenario (no incumbent or VP running), the main contest for the nomination would be between Warren and Cuomo, with Newsom, Harris, Yang, and others also in the running.

[ultraviolet]

If it’s not Biden’s vp for whatever reason (assuming it will be Harris or Rice), I think Newsom, Warren, and Whitmer would be front runners in 2024. Cuomo, Inslee, Cooper, or Brown could do well but I don’t think they would run.

[Left Wing]

Biden’s vp if they run. Joe Kennedy if Trump wins or Biden and his vp don’t run

[ShadowRocket]

I'm going to be bold and say it'll be an open primary only because of my current prediction that Biden picks Rice for VP and it seems unlikely that she would run herself.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm going to be bold and say it'll be an open primary only because of my current prediction that Biden picks Rice for VP and it seems unlikely that she would run herself.

That didn't take long not to age to well.

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wins: Andrew Cuomo.

If Trump loses: Kamala Harris.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Harris  *vomits*