RMG Research/U.S. Term Limits: Gideon +7

[President Johnson]

Tilt Democratic. The winner will probably get less than 50%.

Republicans can’t beat a Democratic Senator in a Trump +42 state while the last blue state Republican with a history of winning absolute landslides is trailing in a Clinton +3 state. I’d say any "asymmetric electoral polarization" in blue vs. red states more than negates the Democrats' "small state problem" in the Senate.

That said, I’m not going to move it to Lean D because of this particular "Term Limits" poll, especially when other recent polls have indicated a much closer race. It’s obvious that Collins is in big trouble, though.

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

[President Johnson]

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

Running better candidates is only part of the story (Gideon really isn’t that strong, I’d say). The biggest problem is Trump/Republican voters simply being much more likely to split their ticket/elect a Senator from the other party than Democratic voters.

There’s no way a Republican equivalent of Jason Kander or Doug Jones would have even kept it close. Heck, Hugin who ran against a scumbag barely did better than Trump, and Republicans couldn’t even hold NH-SEN 2016 where Clinton lost by less than .5%.

Yeah that seems to be a big thing. Why are Trump voters more willing to split their tickets? You would think that they would be more partisan than Democrats.

Maybe because a faction, maybe not a majority but a faction, Trump cultists aren't Republicans. Or they are registered as such, but don't actually care about the party. In certain states, a lot of Trump supporters are ancestral Democrats who vote Democratic downballot, but love Trump. On the contrary, Trump is driving some Republicans out of the party who are willing to vote for Democrats in general. Especially in the upper middle class who strongly support globalism.