RMG Research/U.S. Term Limits: Gideon +7

[Gass3268]

Gideon (D) 48%
Collins (R-inc) 41%

Source

Almost time to move this to Lean D.

[Person Man]

I think we should. We can always say Collins has caught up.

[WD]

Yikes. Collins is probably done for.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, the most striking thing is the prez topline looks like nearly every other Maine poll we've gotten, so there's not much f**kery going on there. Big difference is it looks like most Biden voters are coming around to Gideon, and Collins is stuck around Trump's #s.

[Calthrina950]

This poll provides yet another indication that Collins has lost most of her crossover appeal. The fact that she is mired in the lower 40s and is running about even with Trump's support levels is certainly alarming for her. Collins is in a much more vulnerable position than her Democratic counterpart, Joe Manchin, was back in 2018. Manchin led almost all of the polls that year; Collins has trailed in most of them. At this point, I'm starting to think that a Gideon victory is more likely then not. Collins still has a chance, but it's going to be tough.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans can’t beat a Democratic Senator in a Trump +42 state while the last blue state Republican with a history of winning absolute landslides is trailing in a Clinton +3 state. I’d say any "asymmetric electoral polarization" in blue vs. red states more than negates the Democrats' "small state problem" in the Senate.

That said, I’m not going to move it to Lean D because of this particular "Term Limits" poll, especially when other recent polls have indicated a much closer race. It’s obvious that Collins is in big trouble, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Yellowhammer]

This race is Safe D, nothing to see here

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This race is Safe D, nothing to see here

No. MT Treasurer has it right - RMG/Term Limits is probably an iffy combination. Although not inherently pro-Democratic, they probably stick to releasing polls favourable to the candidate who has not yet broken a term limits pledge (Gideon in this case), hence why they released the only poll showing McGrath ahead of McConnell. It’s a bit of good news for Gideon’s campaign, but not a strong indicator.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is Safe D, nothing to see here

No. MT Treasurer has it right - RMG/Term Limits is probably an iffy combination. Although not inherently pro-Democratic, they probably stick to releasing polls favourable to the candidate who has not yet broken a term limits pledge (Gideon in this case), hence why they released the only poll showing McGrath ahead of McConnell. It’s a bit of good news for Gideon’s campaign, but not a strong indicator.

QU released a poll showing McGrath down by 5 and Graham tied with Harrisob, it was a RV poll, but McConnell, Graham and Cornyn are vulnerable 👍👍👍

That's why I have all 3 losing and Mackler, not Gross winning

[President Johnson]

Tilt Democratic. The winner will probably get less than 50%.

Republicans can’t beat a Democratic Senator in a Trump +42 state while the last blue state Republican with a history of winning absolute landslides is trailing in a Clinton +3 state. I’d say any "asymmetric electoral polarization" in blue vs. red states more than negates the Democrats' "small state problem" in the Senate.

That said, I’m not going to move it to Lean D because of this particular "Term Limits" poll, especially when other recent polls have indicated a much closer race. It’s obvious that Collins is in big trouble, though.

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

[WD]

Is RCP going to put this into their average?

[wbrocks67]

The term limits question was asked *after* the original topline, and the prez race lines up with exactly what we've been seeing in Maine. RMG isn't the great pollster (Scott Rasmussen anyone...), but the fact that the Prez topline lines up with everything we've gotten so far in ME, makes the Senate topline believable

[MT Treasurer]

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

Running better candidates is only part of the story (Gideon really isn’t that strong, I’d say). The biggest problem is Trump/Republican voters simply being much more likely to split their ticket/elect a Senator from the other party than Democratic voters.

There’s no way a Republican equivalent of Jason Kander or Doug Jones would have even kept it close. Heck, Hugin who ran against a scumbag barely did better than Trump, and Republicans couldn’t even hold NH-SEN 2016 where Clinton won by less than .5%.

[WD]

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

Running better candidates is only part of the story (Gideon really isn’t that strong, I’d say). The biggest problem is Trump/Republican voters simply being much more likely to split their ticket/elect a Senator from the other party than Democratic voters.

There’s no way a Republican equivalent of Jason Kander or Doug Jones would have even kept it close. Heck, Hugin who ran against a scumbag barely did better than Trump, and Republicans couldn’t even hold NH-SEN 2016 where Clinton lost by less than .5%.

Yeah that seems to be a big thing. Why are Trump voters more willing to split their tickets? You would think that they would be more partisan than Democrats.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

Running better candidates is only part of the story (Gideon really isn’t that strong, I’d say). The biggest problem is Trump/Republican voters simply being much more likely to split their ticket/elect a Senator from the other party than Democratic voters.

There’s no way a Republican equivalent of Jason Kander or Doug Jones would have even kept it close. Heck, Hugin who ran against a scumbag barely did better than Trump, and Republicans couldn’t even hold NH-SEN 2016 where Clinton lost by less than .5%.

Baker won his last election with a lead of 33 points. He would not win a Senate seat in the Trump era, but with Biden in office, he’s a decent comparison to Kander.

Jones is a special case and will lose badly this November. Menendez is scum, but the electorate has long been more forgiving of the corrupt than sexual predators.

[South Dakota Democrat]

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

Running better candidates is only part of the story (Gideon really isn’t that strong, I’d say). The biggest problem is Trump/Republican voters simply being much more likely to split their ticket/elect a Senator from the other party than Democratic voters.

There’s no way a Republican equivalent of Jason Kander or Doug Jones would have even kept it close. Heck, Hugin who ran against a scumbag barely did better than Trump, and Republicans couldn’t even hold NH-SEN 2016 where Clinton lost won by less than .5%.

FTFY

[MT Treasurer]

Baker won his last election with a lead of 33 points. He would not win a Senate seat in the Trump era, but with Biden in office, he’s a decent comparison to Kander.

I don’t think Baker could ever come this close except maybe in a special election (even then, probably not), but even that’s not the best comparison because Kander almost beat Blunt with Obama in office.

Jones is a special case and will lose badly this November.

He’ll still outperform Biden by a lot, much more than most blue state Republican Senators who lost in recent elections.

Menendez is scum, but the electorate has long been more forgiving of the corrupt than sexual predators.

Menendez won an easy double-digit victory, he could have been accused of things far worse than that and would have still won. (Republicans were foolish for targeting this seat when they could have focused on MT/WV instead, and I also don’t buy that this seat would have been competitive in a Clinton midterm.)

FTFY

Fixed.

[President Johnson]

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

Running better candidates is only part of the story (Gideon really isn’t that strong, I’d say). The biggest problem is Trump/Republican voters simply being much more likely to split their ticket/elect a Senator from the other party than Democratic voters.

There’s no way a Republican equivalent of Jason Kander or Doug Jones would have even kept it close. Heck, Hugin who ran against a scumbag barely did better than Trump, and Republicans couldn’t even hold NH-SEN 2016 where Clinton lost by less than .5%.

Yeah that seems to be a big thing. Why are Trump voters more willing to split their tickets? You would think that they would be more partisan than Democrats.

Maybe because a faction, maybe not a majority but a faction, Trump cultists aren't Republicans. Or they are registered as such, but don't actually care about the party. In certain states, a lot of Trump supporters are ancestral Democrats who vote Democratic downballot, but love Trump. On the contrary, Trump is driving some Republicans out of the party who are willing to vote for Democrats in general. Especially in the upper middle class who strongly support globalism.

[Gracile]

Tilt Democratic. The winner will probably get less than 50%.

It is impossible for the winner to get less than 50% in ME because of RCV.

[Pollster]

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

Running better candidates is only part of the story (Gideon really isn’t that strong, I’d say). The biggest problem is Trump/Republican voters simply being much more likely to split their ticket/elect a Senator from the other party than Democratic voters.

There’s no way a Republican equivalent of Jason Kander or Doug Jones would have even kept it close. Heck, Hugin who ran against a scumbag barely did better than Trump, and Republicans couldn’t even hold NH-SEN 2016 where Clinton lost by less than .5%.

Yeah that seems to be a big thing. Why are Trump voters more willing to split their tickets? You would think that they would be more partisan than Democrats.

Democrats regularly have the more popular platform, outside of guns and abortion, and especially on "kitchen table" issues. It's far easier for a mainstream Republican to buy into a Democratic candidate's agenda than vice versa. Plenty of Republican-leaning folks can palate a Democrat who frames their campaign around affordable healthcare and taxing billionaires but very few Democrat-leaning folks can palate a Republican who frames their campaign around hardline immigration restriction and an arch-conservative judiciary.

Also, I know it can be an Atlas meme to say this, but candidate quality matters. MT Treasurer is right that Democrats overperform in red states frequently, but this really only happens when the Democratic candidate is credible as a political officeholder and raises decent money (would the nobody weed activist who ran against Shelby in 2016 have been as strong against Roy Moore as Jones was?). This is a big part of why Kansas, for instance, will still be competitive even without Kobach.

This video is also a great on the topic.

[Pericles]

Doesn't the fact that Democratic Senators represent more people than Republicans prove they still have a small state problem? Democrats may be able to mitigate the disadvantage, at least in the short-term, but it seems like a pretty serious problem unless party coalitions change or new states are added to the Senate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good for John James

[Nyvin]

I'm very concerned for Senator Collins.

[Horsemask]

something something troubled concerned disappointed

(Collins is in trouble, but its not over yet)