Georgetown U: Biden +13 (user search)

wbrocks67
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Posts: 22,258

« on: August 10, 2020, 11:07:26 AM »

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

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wbrocks67
Atlas Star

Posts: 22,258

« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2020, 11:21:39 AM »

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.

Which, however, makes no sense..

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wbrocks67
Atlas Star

Posts: 22,258

« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2020, 12:15:44 PM »

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.

Which, however, makes no sense..

The NBC/WSJ poll was Biden +11 but had the congressional ballot only D +4.

Right, and then meanwhile, we had YouGov at Biden +9 but GCB at D+12. So at this point, the average (D+8) seems about on point

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