Georgetown U: Biden +13
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Author Topic: Georgetown U: Biden +13  (Read 1294 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 10, 2020, 09:39:46 AM »
Georgetown University, Aug. 1-6, 1000 LV

Biden 53
Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 44

This looks like a very D-friendly sample (46/39 Clinton/Trump voters).
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2020, 09:41:09 AM »
Must be that Executive Order bump.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2020, 09:42:17 AM »
D O M I N A T I N G
O
M
I
N
A
T
I
N
G
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2020, 09:52:45 AM »
Can probably put this in the trash:
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Rand
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2020, 09:53:23 AM »
#Rigged
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Annatar
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« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2020, 09:53:35 AM »
The education sample is hilariously off, not just a bit, 633/1005 of their respondents have a college degree, that’s a 63% college educated sample, the population overall is around 35%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WwCfytVXK7Rtr62XRkzTgNT7CQsDpdTW/view
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2020, 10:00:48 AM »
This is the polling equivalent of: "It's one banana. What could it cost? $10?"
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2020, 10:05:01 AM »
🗑
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American2020
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2020, 10:06:39 AM »
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2020, 10:13:40 AM »
Biden up by 13 points is even a relatively small margin for a poll that had SIXTY THREE PERCENT college graduates.

What a disaster.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2020, 10:14:55 AM »
Quote from: Battista Minola 1616 on August 10, 2020, 10:13:40 AM
Biden up by 13 points is even a relatively small margin for a poll that had SIXTY THREE PERCENT college graduates.

What a disaster.
The self reported 2016 vote was 46/39 Clinton. If we adjust that to the 48/46 it was, you get a Biden +8 margin.
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« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2020, 10:16:20 AM »
What’s interesting is the generic ballot is only D+6, 50-44, so republicans are running ahead of trump and democrats behind Biden.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2020, 10:22:24 AM »
I don't think we can gain much insight for this poll, but at least it's something to offset the Rasmussen's of the world we've been seeing lately.  I would expect us to see the high-quality live-caller polls released sometime this week before the DNC.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2020, 10:24:07 AM »
This was conducted by The Tarrance Group (GOP) and Lake Research (Dem), both of whom are considered bottom of the barrel firms for their respective parties.
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2020, 10:27:45 AM »
Quote from: Bidenworth2020 on August 10, 2020, 10:14:55 AM
Quote from: Battista Minola 1616 on August 10, 2020, 10:13:40 AM
Biden up by 13 points is even a relatively small margin for a poll that had SIXTY THREE PERCENT college graduates.

What a disaster.
The self reported 2016 vote was 46/39 Clinton. If we adjust that to the 48/46 it was, you get a Biden +8 margin.

The fact that the self reported 2016 vote was 46/39 Clinton is in itself very likely related to how many college graduates were polled.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2020, 10:32:59 AM »
What would an acceptable Biden lead be out of interest?
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2020, 10:34:10 AM »


According to Cohn, the accurately weighted result of this poll is +9/6 depending on how you interpret 2 year college (some college or college grad).

Lines up pretty well with the averages.
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2020, 10:41:26 AM »
Quote from: Bidenworth2020 on August 10, 2020, 10:34:10 AM


According to Cohn, the accurately weighted result of this poll is +9/6 depending on how you interpret 2 year college (some college or college grad).

Lines up pretty well with the averages.

Ah. So they may have included two-year degrees among college graduates? So that 63% figure, while still an actor, isn't wildly off then.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2020, 10:45:27 AM »


If you weight everything according to the NYT/Siena poll weighting, it actually comes up Biden +8/10.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: August 10, 2020, 10:48:47 AM »
Quote from: Pollster on August 10, 2020, 10:24:07 AM
This was conducted by The Tarrance Group (GOP) and Lake Research (Dem), both of whom are considered bottom of the barrel firms for their respective parties.

Really? I've read by some people that Tarrance is actually pretty respected among Republicans.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2020, 10:52:51 AM »
Quote from: Bidenworth2020 on August 10, 2020, 10:45:27 AM


If you weight everything according to the NYT/Siena poll weighting, it actually comes up Biden +8/10.

These numbers sound reasonable.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #21 on: August 10, 2020, 10:53:58 AM »
I have no problem with this.  Throw it in with the averages, like the Repubs and RCP do with Trafalgar.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: August 10, 2020, 11:07:26 AM »
Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2020, 11:16:51 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 10, 2020, 11:07:26 AM
Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?
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« Reply #24 on: August 10, 2020, 11:20:56 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 10, 2020, 11:16:51 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 10, 2020, 11:07:26 AM
Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.
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