Georgetown U: Biden +13

[Annatar]

The education sample is hilariously off, not just a bit, 633/1005 of their respondents have a college degree, that’s a 63% college educated sample, the population overall is around 35%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WwCfytVXK7Rtr62XRkzTgNT7CQsDpdTW/view

[Annatar]

What’s interesting is the generic ballot is only D+6, 50-44, so republicans are running ahead of trump and democrats behind Biden.

[Annatar]

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.

[Annatar]

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.

Which, however, makes no sense..

I agree, I would be surprised to see more than a 3% difference at most between the house vote and presidential vote. The difference in 2008 was 3.4%, in 2012 it was 2.7% and 3.2% in 2016.