Belarus Revolution Thread

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, spreading silly rumours (eg that Luka has already fled) isn't really going to help here.

[CumbrianLefty]

Appears that the "real" election winner is now in Lithuania.

Revolution over?

[CumbrianLefty]

Though it can certainly be argued that many in both the GOP and UK Tories seem rather disturbingly keen on the Orban model of "managed democracy".

[CumbrianLefty]

Inevitably, there are a few "fake" crowd shots circulating on social media.

(though that does not appear to be one)

[CumbrianLefty]

Lukashenko appears to have the security forces still on side, but maybe not a lot else.

Shaping up to be a classic immoveable object meets irresistible force situation......

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the bottom line is that if Russia is determined to annex Belarus, there isn't much anybody else can do about it. Hopefully, the prospect of taking on several million restive natives may give Putin pause.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reportedly said "you'll have to kill me if you want another election". Writes its own punchline really.

[CumbrianLefty]

Does seem to have gone somewhat quieter in recent days, possible calm before the storm though?

[CumbrianLefty]

So something of a stalemate right now, as some predicted might happen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Most recent BBC article:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53966004

"Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned Mr Lukashenko on his birthday and reportedly invited him to visit Moscow.

It appeared to be the latest sign of Kremlin support for a president who has not always been seen positively by Russia.

But Mr Putin has said he has formed a police reserve force to intervene in Belarus if necessary, although "it won't be used until the situation gets out of control"."

Putin didn't even send a cake, smh.

Seems fairly lukewarm all told?

[CumbrianLefty]

"The interior ministry said it had no information about the council members being detained."

And if you believe that......

[CumbrianLefty]

Well yeah, if Luka loses the police in significant numbers he is screwed. I don't think the army will be willing to die in the last ditch (metaphorically or indeed literally) for him.

[CumbrianLefty]

In recent news NEXTA claims to have acquired a list of every Belarussian cop and will release it unless Lukashenka resigns.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1304455966704971777

This could be a major turning point.

If someone in the police leaked this, then maybe it means some police are turning on the old man.

it seems a few did from the outset, but not (yet) the critical mass needed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lukashenko has apparently had his (re)inauguration ceremony. Even if it was low key and private, that suggests a certain amount of confidence about remaining in power unfortunately.