Belarus Revolution Thread

[Tender Branson]

Opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya received ca. 60-80% of the vote today in the Presidential election, but dictator Lukashenko rigged and reported it as a 79% win for himself.

Now, riots all over the country:

https://twitter.com/blog1600penn/status/1292547014388047872

Which side will prevail ?

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1292539654449790977

[Tender Branson]

Dictator Lukashenko has flown his family out to Turkey ...

Meanwhile:

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1292552637573931011

[Tender Branson]

Tonight is going to be bad for members of the police state:

https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1292553039711264771

[Tender Branson]

Riot police running away scared from THE PEOPLE:

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1292554907069939712

[cp]

Looks like a good start. Hope folks in the US and UK are taking notes

[Tender Branson]

In Zhodino, a city of 60.000, riot police have surrendered at the sight of the protesting citizens:

https://twitter.com/ilyapahomov/status/1292555507920711680

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Honestly, I didn't expect this to happen.

[Sirius_]

It doesn't look like the police really have their hearts set on saving Lukashenko. With seemingly at least 80% of the people ready in overthrow him and his enforcers not sticking by his side, this could spell his doom. Its hard to overcome that.

[Tender Branson]

Honestly, I didn't expect this to happen.

It was pretty clear it would happen after the mass opposition rallies over the past few weeks.

Just the extent of the uprising was unclear ...

[Tender Branson]

LukaHitler is screwed:

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1292559880113590272

[Cassius]

Looks like a good start. Hope folks in the US and UK are taking notes

What? Notes on how to get their skulls cracked?

Everyone needs to give this a few days to play itself out rather than jumping to conclusions based on fragmentary mobile footage.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This could be big- very big.

A lot going on, reports are confusing and unclear, for example these pieces:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1292555118680784897?s=20
https://twitter.com/LouisJMarinelli/status/1292561092279967744
But it is clear that the rigging was absolute and that the opposition won. It's beyond my expectations, honestly- I thought that it would be the biggest opposition movement in Belarus since Lukashenko's rise, but reports from many polling places that didn't rig it indicate that Tikhanovskaya clearly won. It's beyond any expectations. If the current protests gain even more steam and strength, and if Lukashenko doesn't have the stomach to brutally repress or the armed forces don't stand by him, we could see him fall. I would actually say that this has consequences beyond Belarus- this country is culturally similar to Russia, and seeing a protest movement succeed there has to worry Putin.

[PSOL]

It’s very possible that the military might step in and crush the uprising. If not the domestic military, I expect Russia to step in. No possibility that Russia will let this go the way of Ukraine and have the entire European border to be surrounded by hostile states.

I’m still surprised that Belarus has finally succumbed to a color revolution when it has survived for nearly 25 years while the governments of Yugoslavia, Georgia, and Ukraine were overthrown. Lukashenko has survived the economic crisis and revolutionary waves of the 2010s, yet it was the pandemic that brought the Belarusian state to the brink of a successful revolution.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So I managed to read most of the report about the riot police joining the protestors:

https://www.dsnews.ua/world/u-dvoh-mistah-bilorusi-omon-vidstupiv-v-minsku-rostut-barikadi-09082020-394978

According to these reports, they refused to repress the protests in two cities- in one they retreat before the protestors, in the other they "lowered their shields to the applause of the protestors".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Calling this thing "Belarus Revolution" already barely after it started is peak Atlas.

[PSOL]

So I managed to read most of the report about the riot police joining the protestors:

https://www.dsnews.ua/world/u-dvoh-mistah-bilorusi-omon-vidstupiv-v-minsku-rostut-barikadi-09082020-394978

According to these reports, they refused to repress the protests in two cities- in one they retreat before the protestors, in the other they "lowered their shields to the applause of the protestors".

Yeah, Lukashenko is screwed if even the police are fed up with him.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1292571736333058048

[Tender Branson]

It seems neither side has won yet, but people are occupying the streets:

[😥]

Lukashenko has just said that all protests and riots are being led by the Czech Republic, Poland and Ukraine. It is very funny and scary to watch this mustachioed clown of Putin hold on to power

[kelestian]

So I managed to read most of the report about the riot police joining the protestors:

https://www.dsnews.ua/world/u-dvoh-mistah-bilorusi-omon-vidstupiv-v-minsku-rostut-barikadi-09082020-394978

According to these reports, they refused to repress the protests in two cities- in one they retreat before the protestors, in the other they "lowered their shields to the applause of the protestors".

Yeah, Lukashenko is screwed if even the police are fed up with him.

Reports are overblown. People usually became very excited even after rumours of rebellous policemen. But so far i haven't seen any real evidence about divide between pro-Luka and anti-Luka police/military, some law enforment agents were very aggressive, others apathetic, but no signs of rebellion in their ranks.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It seems neither side has won yet, but people are occupying the streets:

This picture is from South Korea in 2016-17. Please don't spread fake news.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1292810211481341963

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1292788613739163650

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1292812229893644288

[Karpatsky]

Keep in mind all that while these early clashes are dramatic, staying power will determine whether protests achieve anything.

Georgia 2003: Elections held Nov 2, Shevardnadze resigned Nov 23 (20 days)
Ukraine 2004: Elections help Nov 21, Rada approved new elections Dec 8 (20 days)
Kyrgyzstan 2005: Elections held March 13, Akayev resigned April 11 (1 month)
Ukraine 2014: Protests began Nov 21, Yanu fled Feb 22 (3 months)

For there to be the slightest chance of victory, there still need to be people on the streets in September at a minimum. Given Belarus is the most repressive of the four countries listed here in my view, it's more likely to be significantly longer than that.

If you want an early idea of whether there's something here, look for evidence of civil society mobilization which can support that sort of time frame of protests - organizations giving first aid to people beaten by police, handing out free masks and gloves,  handing out water and sandwiches, etc. That sort of thing needs to start appearing this week.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, spreading silly rumours (eg that Luka has already fled) isn't really going to help here.