Belarus Revolution Thread

[Karpatsky]

Keep in mind all that while these early clashes are dramatic, staying power will determine whether protests achieve anything.

Georgia 2003: Elections held Nov 2, Shevardnadze resigned Nov 23 (20 days)
Ukraine 2004: Elections help Nov 21, Rada approved new elections Dec 8 (20 days)
Kyrgyzstan 2005: Elections held March 13, Akayev resigned April 11 (1 month)
Ukraine 2014: Protests began Nov 21, Yanu fled Feb 22 (3 months)

For there to be the slightest chance of victory, there still need to be people on the streets in September at a minimum. Given Belarus is the most repressive of the four countries listed here in my view, it's more likely to be significantly longer than that.

If you want an early idea of whether there's something here, look for evidence of civil society mobilization which can support that sort of time frame of protests - organizations giving first aid to people beaten by police, handing out free masks and gloves,  handing out water and sandwiches, etc. That sort of thing needs to start appearing this week.

[Karpatsky]

Tikhanovskaya has almost certainly been arrested. She went in person to the CEC to file a complaint and has not been heard from since.

It's amateur hour for the Belarusian opposition. Hard to blame them, since authorities deliberately arrested everyone who wasn't an amateur in the leadup to the election.

EDIT: leaving this up but there are conflicting reports on this. Some have said she has just gone into hiding.

[Karpatsky]

I agree with others that calling this a revolution is wrong at this point, but what happens from this point will determine whether it is.

I also agree with others saying that it will be harder for the opposition to succeed than it was in the Euromaidan (which, of course, was also hard fought). Putin has already demonstrated that he prioritizes control of Belarus over control of Ukraine.

Another agreement I have - that I am surprised that this is talking place in Belarus. Russia has exercised a degree of control over the country that is almost a parody.

This isn't really about Putin, at least not at this point. As I've said elsewhere, the key factor in the success or failure of these sorts of revolutions is the dictator's relationship with his security apparatus: those who can obtain repression survive, those who can't don't. Russia's prioritization of Belarus is immediately relevant only in that Russia probably has some influence over Belarus' security apparatus.FWIW, Belarus and Russia have been drifting apart recently because Lukashenko is increasingly opposed to being integrated into the Eurasian project, but that has little to do with why this is happening in Belarus now.

The simple reason it is is because Lukashenko's Belarus operates on a classic late-Soviet social contract - acquiescence in exchange for economic security, with a focus on strong welfare support for rural citizens and pensioners. A similar thing is present in Russia and the Central Asian states, but Belarus really is the archetypal post-Soviet example. With the coronavirus and resulting economic catastrophe, Lukashenko failed to provide that security exactly when he needed it for a smooth election - which are always catalysts for activist discontent, even when the election is only symbolic. Civil society activation + popular discontent = spark + sawdust = flareup. This wouldn't have happened had there not been a faux election and it wouldn't have happened if the faux election had been a year ago.

[Karpatsky]

According to a Russia analyst friend of mine, Putin may be sending in the "Little Green Men" either today or tomorrow. I'm not sure if they will be doing so to put down the protests and prop up Lukashenka or if they will pull a Crimea and try to install an even more puppety puppet state in place of the previous semi-puppet state.

ISW agrees and has some hard evidence on it: http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/warning-russian-hybrid-intervention-belarus-likely-imminent

Lukashenko did a 180 on the Union State in his rhetoric yesterday; I think it's likely he's folding to Putin for support to stay in power.

[Karpatsky]

Does seem to have gone somewhat quieter in recent days, possible calm before the storm though?

It's not necessarily that it's gotten quieter - protests today are the largest they've been the whole time and more people turned up dead yesterday - it's just that nothing particularly new is happening, so it's no longer filtering through to western media.