Belarus Revolution Thread

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Reportedly said "you'll have to kill me if you want another election". Writes its own punchline really.

Protestors: "aight bet"

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Lukashenka visited a tractor factory today, and the claque failed to laud him. Shades of Ceaucescu's final speech.

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1295283616684085248

I get the impression that Lukashenka is a lot more tact than Nicolae and Elena.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

So I know I'm behind on this--I was Up North all weekend--but I've scanned a few media sources and I have some thoughts that may be of interest.

1. Per aol.com, workers at state-owned factories have engaged in walk-outs. The literature on protest coalitions in Russia, and the facts surrounding Lukashenko's rise to power and Belarusian political economy, would lead this to be a very surprising fact on its own. Protest coalitions tend to be formed from middle-class/white collar employees from the private sector, with blue-collar workers at state-owned enterprises being the least likely to protest from among that selection of characteristics. Lukashenko was elected in 1994 amid a popular wave of opposition to privatization, and upon taking office reversed the privatization process. Belarus in general has an industry-heavy economy with a service sector that is relatively weak compared to its neighbors, so my impression was that blue-collar workers at state enterprises would be his base.

2. Tsikhanouskaya/Tsikhanovskaya has issued a statement where she says "I would like to address those in (military) uniform. Belarusians are people that don't stand for violence, Belarusians are generous and just. If you decide not to follow criminal orders and join the side of the people, they will forgive you, support you, and will not reproach you in the future." Statements like these are, I feel, crucial--or will be after-the-fact deemed as such if Tsikhanouskaya succeeds. The most recent post-Soviet nation to undergo a democratic revolution was Armenia in 2018. In that case, uniformed soldiers were seen among the protesters on the day that Sargsyan resigned. That does not signal wholesale abandonment by the security services, though I think it became clear that sustained violence would not be acceptable. Belarus, like Armenia, has conscription, and as such I would guess that soldiers are more like ordinary citizens than a dedicated weaponized arm of the state. In fact, they only serve 18-month terms of service, and as such are probably by-and-large unwilling to slaughter their countrymen and/or die for the regime. I haven't looked into who has been doing most of the enforcement thus far, though I would assume it is police services, which may have a different culture and set of incentives (as being an officer would be a career choice with more obvious ideological and economic ties to the regime than a draftee). Nevertheless, those hoping for Sasha to fall should remember the example of Venezuela, where, despite economic collapse, mass protests, international outcry, and some defections, the military has remained fairly loyal to Maduro. Why is this? In part, I believe it is because of the immense access the military has had to other economic sectors, particularly its increasing role in administering and profiting from the nation's oil industry. Belarus is not an an oil-rich state, but it has a large government presence in the economy, and is in fact an exporter of processed petroleum (as of a ~2016 check I did while writing a paper in college, 33% of its imports were crude, and 33% of its exports were refined petrol). As such, there may be economic sectors that Lukashenko will or has been able to bribe the military (likely, after 26 years, staffed at the top by loyalists) with. But again, this is speculation, and it will require further investigation to suss out the specific ties between the military and the civilian authorities. Another factor will of course be Russia, which I cannot yet comment on.

[Beet]

Lukashenko's mistake was not shutting down Tsikhanouski's YouTube channel once it became popular. How his security services were not monitoring social media is ridiculous in retrospect. He got complacent simply because he survived for so long. But cases like that of Gadhafi prove longevity is no guarantee. As far as Putin, I don't see how he can allow this. A color revolution right at this doorstep. He can intervene without taking the provocative step of annexation.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Interesting Detail from Al Jazeera:

"Police moved aggressively, using stun grenades and rubber bullets to disperse the crowds, injuring scores of people.

However, as protests grew and the harsh crackdown drew criticism in the West, law enforcement refrained from interfering with the crowds and appeared all but absent during a rally on Sunday that attracted about 200,000 people."

Changing feelings on the part of the police, or a new strategy?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Perhaps he thinks he can just wait things out and eventually people will get tired and go home. As long as the protesters aren't willing to forcibly take over important government buildings or abduct government officials then in theory he could just subsist on under the table money from Putin and eventually the Belarussians will have to go back to work to eat and pay rent. Certainly it's a better strategy than rolling in the tanks, but my guess is that he alienated too many people with mass oppression and torture to get them to simply go home now. If this continues then it seems likely that eventually either some key element of his regime will defect or the protesters will get more bold and he'll regret exposing himself.

[Meclazine for Israel]

"No Elections Until You Kill Me."

Personally, I would not use this as my political platform, but whatever works I guess.

[Storr]

Evidently Luka is tired of all these people expressing their opinions:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53831663

"The man who has led Belarus since 1994 said he had ordered police to quell protests in Minsk. "There should no longer be any disorder in Minsk of any kind," he told his security council.

"People are tired. People demand peace and quiet," he added. He said he had ordered border controls to be tightened to prevent an influx of "fighters and arms"."

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The Belarussian people were too weak

Very strange claim to make.

Not according to Lukashenko

[Storr]

"The Belarus chief prosecutor has launched a criminal case against opposition leaders, accusing them of trying to seize power.

The indictment from Alexander Konyuk says the "creation and activity of the [opposition] Coordination Council are aimed at seizure of state power, and at harming national security"."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53846815

[KaiserDave]

Here comes the crackdown, I'm hoping the revolution is still breathing fire. They must not give in while the iron is hot.

All support to the people of Belarus!

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1297510103478935553

[CumbrianLefty]

Does seem to have gone somewhat quieter in recent days, possible calm before the storm though?

[Karpatsky]

Does seem to have gone somewhat quieter in recent days, possible calm before the storm though?

It's not necessarily that it's gotten quieter - protests today are the largest they've been the whole time and more people turned up dead yesterday - it's just that nothing particularly new is happening, so it's no longer filtering through to western media.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/alex_owski/status/1297584601897021440

[Tender Branson]

The dictator flew 1 hour over Minsk in his helicopter, looking down at protesters and saying they behave like rats.

Together with himself, his 15-year old son also stepped out of the helicopter in full combat gear + Kalashnikov.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Lukashenka might have nearly zero popular support but if the protesters aren't willing to depose him then he has no reason to leave. Simply marching around waving flags is a waste of time at this point; if they aren't willing to escalate then they won't get anywhere.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53877953

Allegations by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that "foreign powers" are organising a build-up of troops on the country's border are baseless, says Nato.

<snip>

Earlier, Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for 26 years, accused Nato of trying to split up Belarus and install a new president in Minsk.

He said troops in Poland and Lithuania were readying themselves, and that he was moving his armed forces to the country's western border.

[ProudModerate2]

I wish the people of Belarus peace and democracy.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Listening to a podcast by a Latvia-based commentator over the weekend, I heard mention of "little green men" sightings, but this does not appear corroborated by news sources. May be a reference to the already-old news of the arrest of Wagner personnel in July.

[CumbrianLefty]

So something of a stalemate right now, as some predicted might happen.

[Mr. Illini]

As I said when this started, Putin will not allow this to be successful. The Navalny poisoning is likely related to this, a signal to any in Russia that may be deriving inspiration to what is going on in Belarus. I would be very surprised if he did not indirectly intervene to stop a revolution. Direct intervention would obviously be a major escalation - I’m not sure if he’d go that far.

I’m praying for the people of Belarus, that they might achieve self-government in the most peaceful way possible.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I wish the people of Belarus peace and democracy.

Only Lukashenko can provide those things for the weak Belorussian proletariat!

[Tender Branson]

The people of Belarus are out protesting in full force again today:

[Storr]

Most recent BBC article:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53966004

"Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned Mr Lukashenko on his birthday and reportedly invited him to visit Moscow.

It appeared to be the latest sign of Kremlin support for a president who has not always been seen positively by Russia.

But Mr Putin has said he has formed a police reserve force to intervene in Belarus if necessary, although "it won't be used until the situation gets out of control"."

Putin didn't even send a cake, smh.