Belarus Revolution Thread

[Storr]

This is Saddam Hussein level stuff.

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1293563045709590528?s=20

The largest protest video recently posted I saw browsing twitter (I assume this was last night):
https://twitter.com/julietnvk/status/1293689390645092352?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Inevitably, there are a few "fake" crowd shots circulating on social media.

(though that does not appear to be one)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Lukashenka sent his thugs to terrorize random citizens and businesses and now entire factories are walking out

https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293895146073923588

https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293908962970963968

https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293892610730467334

Frankly I think this is the end for him unless Putin rolls in the tanks this week, and possibly even if that happens. He had little support to begin and totally alienated a huge portion of those uninvolved with aimless terror.

For Putin this is a far trickier situation than Ukraine was. With the Ukrainians it was easy to divorce Russians and pro-Russian Donbassians from Western Ukrainians with the divisions over language and history, but Belarussians and Russians are far more similar. It's not impossible that Lukashenka falling could inspire more protests in Russia too, though of course Putin has a far higher base of support and understanding of political strategy than Lukashenka ever did.

Of course on the flip side, there's no surer way for Putin to create such protests than to send in the tanks and create a thousand videos and photos of Russian troops abusing Belarussian citizens. Again, since your average Russian can't just categorize Belarussians as fascists Putin's options are much more limited. My guess is that he'll let Lukashenka collapse (because it would take extreme violence to prop up a dictator with sub 20% support) and then find a puppet among the revolutionaries to support in the following power struggle/election.

[mgop]

1. it's lukashenkO, not lukashenkA, he's not a woman.

2. eu/western hipocrisy is through the roof right now. just several weeks ago one european dictator did the absolutely same thing to own people and they were numb, not a word about human rights or anything back then.

[Lord Halifax]

1. it's lukashenkO, not lukashenkA, he's not a woman.

It's Lukashenka (Лукашэ́нка) in Belarusian.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Pompeo: Election-rigging dictator on the verge of being ousted should get a do-over with international oversight.

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1293871596642467840

[Zinneke]

1. it's lukashenkO, not lukashenkA, he's not a woman.

2. eu/western hipocrisy is through the roof right now. just several weeks ago one european dictator did the absolutely same thing to own people and they were numb, not a word about human rights or anything back then.

Who are you referring to in point 2?

[jaymichaud]

Jeans revolution 2.0 NOW!

[Storr]

So much for the Luka #WWC Blue Collar vote:

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1293979702974197763?s=20

I looked it up, Zhodzina has 61,800 residents. I'm terrible at estimating crowds, it looks like there's conservatively ~2,500 people, that brings it close to the 5% of the total population rule of thumb concerning protest success. I can see why OMON left.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1293967657365049350?s=20
Also in Zhodzina:
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1293839711061061633?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JoergForbrig/status/1293901811951308801?s=20

[Tender Branson]

10.000s are congregating in front of the Parliament in Minsk right now:

https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1294325547342934016

It’s weekend. People are home from work and angry.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lukashenko appears to have the security forces still on side, but maybe not a lot else.

Shaping up to be a classic immoveable object meets irresistible force situation......

[Crumpets]

According to a Russia analyst friend of mine, Putin may be sending in the "Little Green Men" either today or tomorrow. I'm not sure if they will be doing so to put down the protests and prop up Lukashenka or if they will pull a Crimea and try to install an even more puppety puppet state in place of the previous semi-puppet state.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/FP_Champagne/status/1294692245870870529

[Woody]

According to a Russia analyst friend of mine, Putin may be sending in the "Little Green Men" either today or tomorrow. I'm not sure if they will be doing so to put down the protests and prop up Lukashenka or if they will pull a Crimea and try to install an even more puppety puppet state in place of the previous semi-puppet state.

Either way, Lukashenko is pretty much screwed. The EU & West don't want anything to do with him now due to the protests, so now not only is Belarus isolated from the west and entirely dependent on Russia, he now has to give major concessions to Russia for him to even stay in power; after today he will be completely under Putin's control.

[Karpatsky]

According to a Russia analyst friend of mine, Putin may be sending in the "Little Green Men" either today or tomorrow. I'm not sure if they will be doing so to put down the protests and prop up Lukashenka or if they will pull a Crimea and try to install an even more puppety puppet state in place of the previous semi-puppet state.

ISW agrees and has some hard evidence on it: http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/warning-russian-hybrid-intervention-belarus-likely-imminent

Lukashenko did a 180 on the Union State in his rhetoric yesterday; I think it's likely he's folding to Putin for support to stay in power.

[Beet]

According to a Russia analyst friend of mine, Putin may be sending in the "Little Green Men" either today or tomorrow. I'm not sure if they will be doing so to put down the protests and prop up Lukashenka or if they will pull a Crimea and try to install an even more puppety puppet state in place of the previous semi-puppet state.

ISW agrees and has some hard evidence on it: http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/warning-russian-hybrid-intervention-belarus-likely-imminent

Lukashenko did a 180 on the Union State in his rhetoric yesterday; I think it's likely he's folding to Putin for support to stay in power.

I knew it. That's why I was against this "revolution" thing to begin with.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the bottom line is that if Russia is determined to annex Belarus, there isn't much anybody else can do about it. Hopefully, the prospect of taking on several million restive natives may give Putin pause.

[Tender Branson]

Huge crowd in Minsk:

https://twitter.com/Belsat_TV/status/1294994301886312448

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1295003202782363649

[Storr]

Well the bottom line is that if Russia is determined to annex Belarus, there isn't much anybody else can do about it. Hopefully, the prospect of taking on several million restive natives may give Putin pause.

The main question would be what the Belarusian military would do about it. Would they fight like the Ukrainians in the Donetsk basin or fold like the Ukrainians in Crimea? With Lukashenka currently still in power (on the surface at least), there's an obvious answer to that question.

[Silent Hunter]

The "Hero City" designation for Minsk is basically like Malta's George Cross; the entire city was basically awarded the Hero of the Soviet Union medal.

So, it's very much a symbol of the Soviet regime in one way.

[ibagli]

Lukashenka visited a tractor factory today, and the claque failed to laud him. Shades of Ceaucescu's final speech.

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1295283616684085248

[CumbrianLefty]

Reportedly said "you'll have to kill me if you want another election". Writes its own punchline really.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Reportedly said "you'll have to kill me if you want another election". Writes its own punchline really.

When someone declares themselves "President for Life", they are telling you precisely how they wish to leave office.

Belarus President Sends SOS to Putin, Tells Protesters: You’ll Have to Kill Me to Get New Elections

This doesn’t sound like a man who’s going to go quietly. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko warned protesters Monday that he will not give in to their demands for a new presidential election—unless they assassinate him.

Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in the capital city of Minsk over the weekend to protest against the disputed elections held earlier this month. Protesters have been infuriated by alleged poll-rigging and police violence at the ensuing protests, but Lukashenko has defied any suggestion that the vote could be re-run.

“We held elections already. Until you kill me, there will be no other elections,” he was quoted by Belarusian media as saying during a visit to a tractor plant Monday morning. “You should never expect me to do something under pressure... They [new elections] won’t happen.”