Belarus Revolution Thread

[Karpatsky]

Tikhanovskaya has almost certainly been arrested. She went in person to the CEC to file a complaint and has not been heard from since.

It's amateur hour for the Belarusian opposition. Hard to blame them, since authorities deliberately arrested everyone who wasn't an amateur in the leadup to the election.

EDIT: leaving this up but there are conflicting reports on this. Some have said she has just gone into hiding.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/LinkeviciusL/status/1292898802928627712

I agree with others that calling this a revolution is wrong at this point, but what happens from this point will determine whether it is.

I also agree with others saying that it will be harder for the opposition to succeed than it was in the Euromaidan (which, of course, was also hard fought). Putin has already demonstrated that he prioritizes control of Belarus over control of Ukraine.

Another agreement I have - that I am surprised that this is talking place in Belarus. Russia has exercised a degree of control over the country that is almost a parody.

[Karpatsky]

I agree with others that calling this a revolution is wrong at this point, but what happens from this point will determine whether it is.

I also agree with others saying that it will be harder for the opposition to succeed than it was in the Euromaidan (which, of course, was also hard fought). Putin has already demonstrated that he prioritizes control of Belarus over control of Ukraine.

Another agreement I have - that I am surprised that this is talking place in Belarus. Russia has exercised a degree of control over the country that is almost a parody.

This isn't really about Putin, at least not at this point. As I've said elsewhere, the key factor in the success or failure of these sorts of revolutions is the dictator's relationship with his security apparatus: those who can obtain repression survive, those who can't don't. Russia's prioritization of Belarus is immediately relevant only in that Russia probably has some influence over Belarus' security apparatus.FWIW, Belarus and Russia have been drifting apart recently because Lukashenko is increasingly opposed to being integrated into the Eurasian project, but that has little to do with why this is happening in Belarus now.

The simple reason it is is because Lukashenko's Belarus operates on a classic late-Soviet social contract - acquiescence in exchange for economic security, with a focus on strong welfare support for rural citizens and pensioners. A similar thing is present in Russia and the Central Asian states, but Belarus really is the archetypal post-Soviet example. With the coronavirus and resulting economic catastrophe, Lukashenko failed to provide that security exactly when he needed it for a smooth election - which are always catalysts for activist discontent, even when the election is only symbolic. Civil society activation + popular discontent = spark + sawdust = flareup. This wouldn't have happened had there not been a faux election and it wouldn't have happened if the faux election had been a year ago.

[Crumpets]

Although Lukashenka has been a useful foil against the west and liberal democratic movements for Putin, the two aren't exactly goody-goody BFFs. Even if Putin might try to step in if Belarus looks like it's going full Maidan, I can definitely see them holding back if Lukashenka gets the boot without much else changing.

[Mr. Illini]

I agree with others that calling this a revolution is wrong at this point, but what happens from this point will determine whether it is.

I also agree with others saying that it will be harder for the opposition to succeed than it was in the Euromaidan (which, of course, was also hard fought). Putin has already demonstrated that he prioritizes control of Belarus over control of Ukraine.

Another agreement I have - that I am surprised that this is talking place in Belarus. Russia has exercised a degree of control over the country that is almost a parody.

This isn't really about Putin, at least not at this point. As I've said elsewhere, the key factor in the success or failure of these sorts of revolutions is the dictator's relationship with his security apparatus: those who can obtain repression survive, those who can't don't. Russia's prioritization of Belarus is immediately relevant only in that Russia probably has some influence over Belarus' security apparatus.FWIW, Belarus and Russia have been drifting apart recently because Lukashenko is increasingly opposed to being integrated into the Eurasian project, but that has little to do with why this is happening in Belarus now.

The simple reason it is is because Lukashenko's Belarus operates on a classic late-Soviet social contract - acquiescence in exchange for economic security, with a focus on strong welfare support for rural citizens and pensioners. A similar thing is present in Russia and the Central Asian states, but Belarus really is the archetypal post-Soviet example. With the coronavirus and resulting economic catastrophe, Lukashenko failed to provide that security exactly when he needed it for a smooth election - which are always catalysts for activist discontent, even when the election is only symbolic. Civil society activation + popular discontent = spark + sawdust = flareup. This wouldn't have happened had there not been a faux election and it wouldn't have happened if the faux election had been a year ago.

I suppose the reason I mentioned Putin to such a degree is that I find it hard to believe that he will allow a revolution to go down in Belarus without some sort of indirect intervention. Action to either preserve Lukashenko’s position in power, or action after a revolution to install a friendly government. The latter seems a lot more difficult to me.

[CumbrianLefty]

Appears that the "real" election winner is now in Lithuania.

Revolution over?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Anyone else here get the read that Tikhanouskaya's fleeing abroad signals defeat even as the street battle rages? Yushchenko faced poisoning and Pashinyan arrest yet they persevered. Not necessarily an indictment of Tikhanouskaya here (who is effectively a single mother and a new politician in a country more authoritarian than prior examples of electoral revolution), but definitely a retreat that hampers her in terms of tactics and optics alike.

EDIT: The above was written assuming she was still rhetorically in the fight, so to speak. Per BBC, her rhetoric signals definite defeat though she does not appear to outright say she has stopped contesting her claim to the presidency. Looks like her leaving was part of a deal to release her campaign manager, and she has claimed that not one life is worth losing in the name of her campaign. Nevertheless, the street battle appears to rage on. As such, I would propose that my above analysus still stands.

[Tender Branson]

The Revolution is dead, long live the Dictator !



The Belarussian people were too weak, they should have killed the police and Lukahitler while they had the chance ...

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The Belarussian people were too weak

Very strange claim to make.

[Tender Branson]

The Belarussian people were too weak

Very strange claim to make.

The number of protesters outnumbered police by about 10:1.

They should have beaten every single police pig up badly and stormed the compound of the Dictator.

They failed. They were not determined enough.

[Storr]

Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs
https://twitter.com/LinkeviciusL/status/1293055918586953730?s=20

[Mr. Illini]

Tikhanovskaya left the country as part of a deal to ensure the release of her campaign manager. She recorded two videos asking supporters to stand down - first published by state media - from detention. The Lithuanian President says that “no one in their right mind believes she recorded the videos voluntarily.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-537333

She is a brave woman. Solidarity from the United States.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1293172569902845953?s=20

Satirizing (though probably not as distant from reality as one would hope) this obviously staged/forced taped statement from Tikhanouskaya.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1293132733733052418?s=20

[Storr]

"The army is coming to Minsk. Lots of troops. Drivers honk in protest."

https://twitter.com/poczobut/status/1293174437525757952?s=20

[Zinneke]

The Revolution is dead, long live the Dictator !



The Belarussian people were too weak, they should have killed the police and Lukahitler while they had the chance ...

Why dont you go on the street big man?

[Tender Branson]

The Revolution is dead, long live the Dictator !



The Belarussian people were too weak, they should have killed the police and Lukahitler while they had the chance ...

Why dont you go on the street big man?

I don't live in Belarus, but I understand what you are trying to say ... maybe they were not to "weak", but mostly not organized enough to hit up the police state enablers and to kill their dictator for fear of their personal safety.

But if there are 200.000 protesters in Minsk and 10.000 police, they could overpowered them if they wanted to.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The Revolution is dead, long live the Dictator !



The Belarussian people were too weak, they should have killed the police and Lukahitler while they had the chance ...

Why dont you go on the street big man?

I don't live in Belarus, but I understand what you are trying to say ... maybe they were not to "weak", but mostly not organized enough to hit up the police state enablers and to kill their dictator for fear of their personal safety.

But if there are 200.000 protesters in Minsk and 10.000 police, they could overpowered them if they wanted to.

While some may say that this will code as "we will slaughter you unless you step down", it could just as easily be taken as "we will slaughter you if you step down" and, unintentionally, raise the stakes.

[Storr]

Google Translate says the caption in English is "down with the mustache".
https://twitter.com/AndersBjrk3/status/1293314476561793024?s=20
 

[Storr]

In the US something like this would lead to a DOJ Civil Rights investigation, but it's business as usual in Belarus.
https://twitter.com/bbbayh/status/1293301980207751168?s=20

[kaoras]

The Revolution is dead, long live the Dictator !



The Belarussian people were too weak, they should have killed the police and Lukahitler while they had the chance ...

Only someone who has never faced the army or the kind of anti-riot police that exists in countries like Belarus (Or Chile...) could say this. Is not as easy as saying "Protester outnumber them". You think that citizens are going to suddenly turn into Rambos / suicide jihadists and just throw themselves at guys shooting them rubber bullets, tear gas, and water canons?.

Do you know how it works? They come from all the streets near the big concentration, then star pushing from one front and start shooting high-pressure water mixed with pepper gas + tear gas at you (and I hope you never experience how that feels). If people still don't run then they start shooting. And then the "safety in the numbers" works against you because you have a mass stampede. But they don't want to just disperse people, noo. They corner you, throwing tear gas at all the streets you could use to run so you are boxed in an area while the vehicles that throw tear gas and the water canons continue to shoot things at everyone in sight and you can only hide behind some random entrance or door. And when all of that is over you just can walk beside the soldiers and the police and they won't even arrest you because what they want is to make you suffer so you never protest again.

That's how it worked in Chile. Do you think people didn't want to reach the presidential palace? Congress? I'm sorry, you honestly just don't have any idea of what you are talking about. I'm sure someone like Lukashenko must be well versed in the arts of repression.

[The Mikado]

Tender is a grown-ass man who posts like a 14 year old vicariously getting thrills about someone else's rebellion and gets pissed off that people aren't willing to die for his fantasies.

Best of luck to the people of Belarus. I hope you rid yourselves of your tyrant.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Looks like a good start. Hope folks in the US and UK are taking notes

Comparing Belarus to either the US or the UK is incredibly insulting to all the victims of Lukashenko's current regime lmao

[CumbrianLefty]

Though it can certainly be argued that many in both the GOP and UK Tories seem rather disturbingly keen on the Orban model of "managed democracy".

[Tender Branson]

Tender is a grown-ass man who posts like a 14 year old vicariously getting thrills about someone else's rebellion and gets pissed off that people aren't willing to die for his fantasies.

Best of luck to the people of Belarus. I hope you rid yourselves of your tyrant.

No, I’m just saying what most think or want.

And LOL at criticizing me and then posting the exact same thing I want to happen ...

[kelestian]

Absolutely horrible scenes are emerging though reports and video. Today several russian reporters were released and they returned to Russia. Their stories are very identical: tortures, beatings, humiliations in government prisons. I suspect dead count is much higher than official (2 protesters)
https://www.znak.com/2020-08-12/prprpl

Chechen-style forced apologies:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MBKhMedia/status/1293557095292440576