Belarus Revolution Thread

[CumbrianLefty]

Most recent BBC article:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53966004

"Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned Mr Lukashenko on his birthday and reportedly invited him to visit Moscow.

It appeared to be the latest sign of Kremlin support for a president who has not always been seen positively by Russia.

But Mr Putin has said he has formed a police reserve force to intervene in Belarus if necessary, although "it won't be used until the situation gets out of control"."

Putin didn't even send a cake, smh.

Seems fairly lukewarm all told?

[Storr]

EU demands release of Belarus political prisoners and warns of sanctions

"Key opposition figure Maria Kolesnikova went missing on Monday after she was seen being bundled into a minibus [in Minsk]."

"Ms Kolesnikova was the last of the three women who joined forces against Mr Lukashenko to remain inside Belarus. Veronika Tsepkalo and presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya left the country soon after the vote."

"The interior ministry said it had no information about the council members being detained."

[CumbrianLefty]

"The interior ministry said it had no information about the council members being detained."

And if you believe that......

[Storr]

BBC Belarus protests: Opposition leader 'tore up passport' to avoid expulsion

Now, in the theater of the absurd: evidently after Kolesnikova and two of her colleagues were kidnapped and interrogated they "accepted" an offer to leave the country. But when they reached the Ukrainian border (with a plain clothed escort of totally not police), Kolesnikova ripped up her passport and threw the pieces out the car window so that she was unable to leave the country.

"She climbed, climbed from the car and she walked proudly to Belarusian territory," Mr. Kravtsov said, adding: "She's really a hero. You must understand that. She's very dedicated to what she's doing now."

Lukashenko confirmed that Kolesnikova was arrested for "violating the rules on crossing the state border" and also mentioned "some Belarusians might be "fed up" with his rule but he was adamant that he wouldn't leave office".

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

mentioned "some Belarusians might be "fed up" with his rule

The first step is admitting you have a problem.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In recent news NEXTA claims to have acquired a list of every Belarussian cop and will release it unless Lukashenka resigns.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1304455966704971777

This could be a major turning point.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well yeah, if Luka loses the police in significant numbers he is screwed. I don't think the army will be willing to die in the last ditch (metaphorically or indeed literally) for him.

[Storr]

In recent news NEXTA claims to have acquired a list of every Belarussian cop and will release it unless Lukashenka resigns.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1304455966704971777

This could be a major turning point.

If someone in the police leaked this, then maybe it means some police are turning on the old man.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

If he stepped down, who would take power? I'm guessing caretaker/military government until new elections are called.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Wow. One cheer for doxxing, I guess.

Internet-age revolutions are always such fascinating events. Like History in fast-forward.

[CumbrianLefty]

In recent news NEXTA claims to have acquired a list of every Belarussian cop and will release it unless Lukashenka resigns.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1304455966704971777

This could be a major turning point.

If someone in the police leaked this, then maybe it means some police are turning on the old man.

it seems a few did from the outset, but not (yet) the critical mass needed.

[Person Man]

Is there still a chance that if Belarus breaks up or breaks down that Putin would attempt at least partial annexation like he did in Ukraine?

[hurricanehink]

Is there still a chance that if Belarus breaks up or breaks down that Putin would attempt at least partial annexation like he did in Ukraine?

Good question, one I wondered too. Considering Belarus as a whole is in a union state with Russia, I wonder if it’s all or nothing for Putin.

[Person Man]

Is there still a chance that if Belarus breaks up or breaks down that Putin would attempt at least partial annexation like he did in Ukraine?

Good question, one I wondered too. Considering Belarus as a whole is in a union state with Russia, I wonder if it’s all or nothing for Putin.

And wouldn't that basically lengthen the NATO/EU- Russia border half way across the intermarium?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

EU says it doesn't recognize Lukashenko.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/eu-don-recognise-lukashenko-legitimate-president-200915114733368.html

It wants to impose sanctions...

But diplomats say the EU sanctions on Belarus are being blocked by Cyprus, which is demanding measures against Turkey first in a dispute over natural gas drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lukashenko has apparently had his (re)inauguration ceremony. Even if it was low key and private, that suggests a certain amount of confidence about remaining in power unfortunately.

[Samof94]

How will President Biden handle the situation as for a U.S response?

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1332332372759629826

A constitution made by him and his supporters? Or something different?

[Frodo]

I highly doubt Putin will allow for a truly liberal democracy to develop in Belarus, so I presume he will send Russian forces into Belarus and install a more loyal henchman in Lukashenko's place, and hold a sham 'election' to supposedly give him 'legitimacy'.   

[kelestian]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1332332372759629826

A constitution made by him and his supporters? Or something different?

He is lying as always. Constitutional change (what are they anyway?) were crafted by dictator's hencmen, he would control voting process etc. I can't see Lukashenko leaving power voluntarily, max he will granted himself new governmental post (speaker of legislature?) with new puppet-president.