CBS/YouGov: Biden +6 in WI, PA

[wbrocks67]

Not bad given YouGov’s house effects:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1292471574537424896?s=21

Hmmm... while there has been a lot of Biden+12 in WI, most of the recent PA polls have been this close or closer.  I always thought Biden would have an easier time in PA though.

We haven’t gotten a top quality poll of PA since Monmouth showed Biden up 12 and Fox has him up 11. Franklin and Marshall, a more local pollster, had him up 9.

Yeah, not sure where the CW is that PA is close. All of that top quality pollsters have had it closer to 10 than 5.

[wbrocks67]

Interestingly, this appears to be a likely voter screen rather than a poll of all registered voters.

Yeah, at this stage of the game, really wish they had both RV and LV.

[wbrocks67]

Hmmm... while there has been a lot of Biden+12 in WI, most of the recent PA polls have been this close or closer.  I always thought Biden would have an easier time in PA though.

WI is a bit more elastic than PA, and I feel like the "Scranton Joe" effect is a bit overstated. He was born in Scranton but he's been a Delaware politician all his life.

PA is pretty inelastic though. Just look at 2018. Depends on turnout too, but there is a lot of areas that can swing back and forth (Erie, Lackawanna). Depending on the candidate, they can either be close, or like D+15-20.