CBS/YouGov: Biden +6 in WI, PA

[Wiz in Wis]

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1292468206628634625

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid. Keep it close to 50%, Joe.

[Gass3268]

Not bad given YouGov’s house effects:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1292471574537424896?s=21

[Skill and Chance]

Not bad given YouGov’s house effects:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1292471574537424896?s=21

Hmmm... while there has been a lot of Biden+12 in WI, most of the recent PA polls have been this close or closer.  I always thought Biden would have an easier time in PA though.

[Gass3268]

Not bad given YouGov’s house effects:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1292471574537424896?s=21

Hmmm... while there has been a lot of Biden+12 in WI, most of the recent PA polls have been this close or closer.  I always thought Biden would have an easier time in PA though.

We haven’t gotten a top quality poll of PA since Monmouth showed Biden up 12 and Fox has him up 11. Franklin and Marshall, a more local pollster, had him up 9.

[wbrocks67]

Not bad given YouGov’s house effects:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1292471574537424896?s=21

Hmmm... while there has been a lot of Biden+12 in WI, most of the recent PA polls have been this close or closer.  I always thought Biden would have an easier time in PA though.

We haven’t gotten a top quality poll of PA since Monmouth showed Biden up 12 and Fox has him up 11. Franklin and Marshall, a more local pollster, had him up 9.

Yeah, not sure where the CW is that PA is close. All of that top quality pollsters have had it closer to 10 than 5.

[MillennialModerate]

+6 to me is way way too close for comfort. With the national picture as it is, he should be double digits in both states. Especially PA. I’d be fine if it was +6 a week out

[Person Man]

This would convert to Biden +9 nationally, right?

[Tender Branson]

+6 to me is way way too close for comfort. With the national picture as it is, he should be double digits in both states. Especially PA. I’d be fine if it was +6 a week out

Mobilisation-wise it would be much better for Biden if there’s a close race in the swing state polls.

[Person Man]

+6 to me is way way too close for comfort. With the national picture as it is, he should be double digits in both states. Especially PA. I’d be fine if it was +6 a week out

Mobilisation-wise it would be much better for Biden if there’s a close race in the swing state polls.

But still outside MoE

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

+6 to me is way way too close for comfort. With the national picture as it is, he should be double digits in both states. Especially PA. I’d be fine if it was +6 a week out

Why? I highly doubt it’s at Biden+15 nationally.

[The Mikado]

+6 to me is way way too close for comfort. With the national picture as it is, he should be double digits in both states. Especially PA. I’d be fine if it was +6 a week out

If PA is 3 points to the right of the national average (which it was in 2016), Biden +6 in PA matches to Biden +9 nationally, which is exactly what YouGov shows nationally.

[Ferguson97]

Good, but I’d be more comfortable with a wider margin

[Crumpets]

Not bad given YouGov’s house effects:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1292471574537424896?s=21

Those could be house effects, but they could just as easily be YouGov picking up on trends that other pollsters are missing if they are that region-specific.

[ProudModerate2]

Not bad at all.
I'll take them.

[Pollster]

Interestingly, this appears to be a likely voter screen rather than a poll of all registered voters.

[wbrocks67]

Interestingly, this appears to be a likely voter screen rather than a poll of all registered voters.

Yeah, at this stage of the game, really wish they had both RV and LV.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't buy YouGov's numbers. They're too stable, too perfect, never much variation at all. Compare to phone polls like Monmouth or Quinnipiac or Fox or NYT where they'll occasionally put out something surprising. Makes me think they're massaging the numbers too much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kyle Kondik has an interesting comparison of this PA poll to a 2016 YouGov poll of the state around the same time: https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1292567877833326595

Unrolled version: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1292567877833326595.html

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden below 50%!? It better not be the Executive Order bump or "it is what it is" bump!

But really these results could be better but at the same time Biden is winning with over six times the margin that Trump won with in these two states back in 2016 without a majority of votes. That ought to count for something.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden below 50%!? It better not be the Executive Order bump or "it is what it is" bump!

But really these results could be better but at the same time Biden is winning with over six times the margin that Trump won with in these two states back in 2016 without a majority of votes. That ought to count for something.

Isn't YouGov a little less Biden-friendly than other pollsters? I'd take some solace in that.

Looks like solid numbers to me. I think we've been spoiled by the double-digit leads in these states from previous polls.

[Xing]

Biden wouldn’t win either by double digits unless he were winning the PV by double digits, which I don’t think is anywhere near as likely as Atlas makes it out to be. A six-point margin is fairly comfortable, even if we assume a slight D bias. I’m pretty sure we’re not going to see the same kind of error in Wisconsin that we saw in 2016.

[Annatar]

Very interesting to compare the PA CBS poll to the PA CBS poll done Oct 26-28, 2016 which had Clinton up 48-40 on Trump, Trump is doing a bit worse with whites now, leading by 5%, was up 8% in that poll, he is doing much worse with independents but party ID is more balanced so maybe some independents then now identify as Republican, the Oct 26-28 poll had a 40D/31R party ID split whereas the current poll has a 41D/35R split.

One thing that should be noted is the swing implied in these polls from 2016 is the same as the Monmouth Iowa poll, in that poll, Trump was doing 6.4% worse then 2016, he was up 3 in a state he won by 9.4% and in these polls he is doing 6.7-6.8% worse so the swing implied by these polls is the same as Iowa. Since white voters in states like IA, PA and WI are more elastic then white voters overall and certainly all voters overall, the national swing therefore is probably a bit less then the swing in these states, these polls I think would imply Biden is up 7-8% nationally.

[BobbieMac]

Pretty consistent with their Biden+9 national poll on UNS.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Hmmm... while there has been a lot of Biden+12 in WI, most of the recent PA polls have been this close or closer.  I always thought Biden would have an easier time in PA though.

WI is a bit more elastic than PA, and I feel like the "Scranton Joe" effect is a bit overstated. He was born in Scranton but he's been a Delaware politician all his life.