Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The point is that if Irish re-unification was a major issue for a growing number of voters, that ought to have led in an increase in vote share for the only party willing to campaign on that issue. The fact this didn't happen suggests it isn't a priority.

And it is important not to forget that the long-term logic of the Good Friday Agreement is that eventually Northern Ireland should reach the point where it makes little difference whether the province is technically in the United Kingdom or technically in the Republic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, but quite frankly that's RIP now and it's not clear to me what will happen in the North once it becomes clear that this is dead.

Note though the 2019 elections saw a backlash against both main 'sectarian' parties, in favour of those who defended the constitution as it was, the SDLP and the Alliance. The DUP's attempt to recreate Orange State 2.0 did not go down very well among middle class voters in Greater Belfast, which is interesting in itself.

That's the thing: while the dream itself is quite dead for the time being, the idea that Northern Ireland ought to exist in a state of ambiguity isn't and there turns out to be a pretty large share of the electorate that has become very attached to the... er... anti-concept.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Greece is being absurdly generous. The Donbass is probably nearer the mark.

It's a well known fact that the largest private sector employer in Northern Ireland is the narcotics wholesale and distribution industry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would mean the end of the Republic as presently constituted, which is yet another excellent reason to maintain some form of the present arrangement.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By the mid-1990s, the upper ranks of the IRA were infested with informers. The writing was on the wall.

John Hume's strategy of forcing them to the negotiating table by putting pressure on their ability to easily raise funds in the USA also bore fruit: their finances were well known to be a right mess by the middle 1990s. Actually this probably encouraged some senior members to turn informer: not (of course) part of Hume's plan in any sense, but it all added up and pushed in the same direction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How exactly did Hume go about doing that?

He cultivated ties with various senior Irish American politicians who were concerned at the situation and wished to lobby heavily in the Irish American community for the necessity of Peace and Negotiation, but felt unable to do anything unless and until they had a very credible figure from Northern Ireland to back them up. It is known that the IRA considered assassinating Hume after they worked out what he was up to, though cooler heads prevailed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The median opinion on Northern Ireland in GB has been mildly 'Nationalist' since the 1960s,* so this is no surprise. Almost everyone - well, in England and Wales anyway - views Ulster Protestants as being 'Irish' rather than 'British'.

_{*Before the 1960s the median opinion on Northern Ireland in GB was 'to have no opinion'.}