Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[Frodo]

Everything is pointing in the direction of a reunified Ireland -already Northern Ireland is split half-and-half on the question, and the demographics are in favor.  I am willing to bet that by 2030 (assuming the groundwork has been laid by then), if a referendum were to be held on whether Northern Ireland would unite with the Irish Republic, there would be a clear majorities in both Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic in favor:

The beginning of the end of Northern Ireland?
Northern Irish politics is shifting decisively in favour of Irish unity.

 

[CumbrianLefty]

Demographics are moving somewhat more slowly than some predicted, the direction is clear though.

[Zinneke]

Unionist political entrepreuneurs shot themselves massively in the foot backing Brexit and being hardline on regulatory alignment with Great Britain, all because of some warped imperialist-era superiority complex. They cornered themselves into not only precipitating a massive constitutional crisis but also the eventual selling out of Unionism by an English nationalist movement, and the creation of an all-Ireland economy in the works, which will make Ulster far more interdependent with the EU economy.

That said, we shouldn't underestimate the 10-15% of Catholics who might be soft "Unionists" and would rather keep some form of the goodie bag they get from Westminster : the NHS, some form of stability through the GFA, education, a currency that, once the Brexit process is finished, will likely stabilise. And it could take another generation for some of the more Unionists to ever accept peacefully a transition.

Not to mention, Southern Ireland still hasn't figured out what a United Ireland would look like. You have options ranging from a unitary Dail Eireann with the Unionist community not given any alarm bell procedures or special treatment, a Dail Eireann with alarm bell procedures and minority rights for Unionists, a federal Ireland using the 4 provinces with heavy decentralisation leading to Stormont remaining as it is, or a confederacy-style arrangement with Stormont remaining as it is - but then a West Lothian-style Question occurs in the Dail. The good news is, under republican pressure, it appears Dublin has finally kicked into gear with committees examining how

 Stormont looks likely to remain no matter what : I sincerely doubt any political United Ireland agreement with the Unionists, backed by Westminster, involves scrapping Stormont and power sharing in favour of even the most stringent minority rights. Power sharing especially enables all the political entrepreneurs to use their political budgets to keep their electorates on board in Ulster.
But then BoJo has sold the Unionist cause down the road once now, and historically Westminster has seen Ulster as a boil on the arse of their affairs (there is after all, no political capital to be gained by either major party there - only the risk of being held to ransom in the event of a hung parliament)

A final solution is a situation of co-sovereignty. Ulster as a place where British and Irish (and thus EU) interests converge. Where the two economies meet, where both currencies are used, and regulation is light. A sort of miniture Hong Kong. I think given the abject poverty rates, the drug problem and the general brain drain Ulster suffers, it would benefit from the EU and UK banging their heads together to make it an attractive, prosperous place while still allowing its identities to flourish.

[Hnv1]

I doubt the UDA\UVF will let it slide without starting the troubles again

[DaWN]

The unionists aren't going to let it happen while they remain the majority. It's a non-starter until this changes.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The unionists are already not a majority in the population at large, because a substantial and growing share of the population associate with neither side. But that doesn't mean that the neithers from unionist backgrounds are likely to support reunification in any substantial numbers and there isn't going to be a 50%+1 referendum anyway. The long-term weakness of both blocs is likely to be more significant than the relative balance between the two.

[cp]

Unionist political entrepreuneurs shot themselves massively in the foot backing Brexit and being hardline on regulatory alignment with Great Britain, all because of some warped imperialist-era superiority complex. They cornered themselves into not only precipitating a massive constitutional crisis but also the eventual selling out of Unionism by an English nationalist movement, and the creation of an all-Ireland economy in the works, which will make Ulster far more interdependent with the EU economy.

That said, we shouldn't underestimate the 10-15% of Catholics who are soft Unionists and would rather keep some form of the goodie bag they get from Westminster : the NHS, some form of stability through the GFA, education, a currency that, once the Brexit process is finished, will likely stabilise. And it could take another generation for some of the more Unionists to ever accept peacefully a transition.

Without hyperbole, I don't think Brexit will ever 'finish'. It's slowly become a euphemistic catchall for 'relations with the EU', as well as an index for tribal cultural politics in England. Whatever impact it has on NI, it certainly won't be one that brings stability.

It's worth repeating just how screwed the Unionists are in NI right now. Returning to the status quo ante Brexit is impossible. Suppression of growing nationalist sentiment, nevermind strengthening unionist ties with the UK, is a non-starter and all but mandated to become harder as the Withdrawal Agreement comes into full effect. Any cooperation with ideological conservative allies in England is a dubious prospect - they did just sell them down the river out of convenience, after all.

It's not just a question of Unionists having no good moves. There are no moves to make whatsoever. The WA mandated plebiscite on continued economic alignment with the EU scheduled for 2024 (a near certainty to pass), will probably be interpreted as a proxy border poll regardless of what politicians on both sides of the Irish Sea (and the border) insist. As it becomes clearer how distant and diminishing Westminster's prerogatives and powers are in the day-to-day lives of those in NI, the inexorable logic of reunification will become harder to resist.

[jaymichaud]

No because near 100% of Ulster Protestants (who are the majority) support the union and some surveys have shown even a fair amount of Irish Catholics wouldn’t vote in favour of a UI in a Border poll.

I’ll be very shocked if Northern Ireland is still existing in 2050. But with the current demographics and political climate it’s not realistic.

[CumbrianLefty]

I doubt the UDA\UVF will let it slide without starting the troubles again

"They haven't gone away, you know".

[Zinneke]

Unionist political entrepreuneurs shot themselves massively in the foot backing Brexit and being hardline on regulatory alignment with Great Britain, all because of some warped imperialist-era superiority complex. They cornered themselves into not only precipitating a massive constitutional crisis but also the eventual selling out of Unionism by an English nationalist movement, and the creation of an all-Ireland economy in the works, which will make Ulster far more interdependent with the EU economy.

That said, we shouldn't underestimate the 10-15% of Catholics who are soft Unionists and would rather keep some form of the goodie bag they get from Westminster : the NHS, some form of stability through the GFA, education, a currency that, once the Brexit process is finished, will likely stabilise. And it could take another generation for some of the more Unionists to ever accept peacefully a transition.

Without hyperbole, I don't think Brexit will ever 'finish'. It's slowly become a euphemistic catchall for 'relations with the EU', as well as an index for tribal cultural politics in England. Whatever impact it has on NI, it certainly won't be one that brings stability.

It's worth repeating just how screwed the Unionists are in NI right now. Returning to the status quo ante Brexit is impossible. Suppression of growing nationalist sentiment, nevermind strengthening unionist ties with the UK, is a non-starter and all but mandated to become harder as the Withdrawal Agreement comes into full effect. Any cooperation with ideological conservative allies in England is a dubious prospect - they did just sell them down the river out of convenience, after all.

It's not just a question of Unionists having no good moves. There are no moves to make whatsoever. The WA mandated plebiscite on continued economic alignment with the EU scheduled for 2024 (a near certainty to pass), will probably be interpreted as a proxy border poll regardless of what politicians on both sides of the Irish Sea (and the border) insist. As it becomes clearer how distant and diminishing Westminster's prerogatives and powers are in the day-to-day lives of those in NI, the inexorable logic of reunification will become harder to resist.

Well the DUP is Unionist in every aspect except in its willingness to let Westminster's prerogatives and powers interfere with their vision of a theocratic Ulster. They just want the money from London so that they themselves can maintain the House of Cards. RHI is a testament to the corruption at hand. As long as they 1. keep the whole symbolic mymbo jumbo about what flags fly over Stormont and the Queen's authority and 2. continue to be subsidized by London rather than the potentially more reluctant/demanding Dublin - they'll be happy. But yeah pushing for Brexit was still an extraordinary way to snooker yourself.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I think that demographic changes point more toward the "neither here nor there" camp growing than toward the Nationalist camp growing.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Worth noting that Belfast North was the only seat where SF increased its vote in 2019, and that was with a candidate deliberately chosen not to repel soft nationalists.

[Zinneke]

Worth noting that Belfast North was the only seat where SF increased its vote in 2019, and that was with a candidate deliberately chosen not to repel soft nationalists.

Was the issue salience really about the future of Northern Ireland? Or a way to punish the two big parties, both of whom left much to be desired in Stormont and in Westminster (or absent of it)?

[EastAnglianLefty]

The point is that if Irish re-unification was a major issue for a growing number of voters, that ought to have led in an increase in vote share for the only party willing to campaign on that issue. The fact this didn't happen suggests it isn't a priority.

[jaymichaud]

I think that demographic changes point more toward the "neither here nor there" camp growing than toward the Nationalist camp growing.

Even then a poll earlier this year stated the majority of Alliance voters would support remaining in the UK in the event of a border poll.

[brucejoel99]

I'd say Irish reunification is not only likely but almost inevitable at this point. Any referendum on unification with Ireland - though it'll surely be fought by the 2 sides on cultural grounds (because the politicians of either side are simply too incompetent &/or self-absorbed for it to be otherwise) - will be decided by the economic case, & with Brexit & the effect thereof on the NI economy (combined with continued growth for the ROI's economy), it's almost inevitable that there'll be a consensus for unification sooner rather than later.

So at this point, Irish reunification honestly feels a bit like same-sex marriage: you can fight it & maybe delay it for a little while, but it's eventually gonna happen, so you might as well just get on with it already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The point is that if Irish re-unification was a major issue for a growing number of voters, that ought to have led in an increase in vote share for the only party willing to campaign on that issue. The fact this didn't happen suggests it isn't a priority.

And it is important not to forget that the long-term logic of the Good Friday Agreement is that eventually Northern Ireland should reach the point where it makes little difference whether the province is technically in the United Kingdom or technically in the Republic.

[Zinneke]

I'd say Irish reunification is not only likely but almost inevitable at this point. Any referendum on unification with Ireland - though it'll surely be fought by the 2 sides on cultural grounds (because the politicians of either side are simply too incompetent &/or self-absorbed for it to be otherwise) - will be decided by the economic case, & with Brexit & the effect thereof on the NI economy (combined with continued growth for the ROI's economy), it's almost inevitable that there'll be a consensus for unification sooner rather than later.

So at this point, Irish reunification honestly feels a bit like same-sex marriage: you can fight it & maybe delay it for a little while, but it's eventually gonna happen, so you might as well just get on with it already.

On the contrary, timing will be crucial. Especially if UVF veterans are still alive.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The point is that if Irish re-unification was a major issue for a growing number of voters, that ought to have led in an increase in vote share for the only party willing to campaign on that issue. The fact this didn't happen suggests it isn't a priority.

And it is important not to forget that the long-term logic of the Good Friday Agreement is that eventually Northern Ireland should reach the point where it makes little difference whether the province is technically in the United Kingdom or technically in the Republic.

Yes, but quite frankly that's RIP now and it's not clear to me what will happen in the North once it becomes clear that this is dead.

Note though the 2019 elections saw a backlash against both main 'sectarian' parties, in favour of those who defended the constitution as it was, the SDLP and the Alliance. The DUP's attempt to recreate Orange State 2.0 did not go down very well among middle class voters in Greater Belfast, which is interesting in itself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, but quite frankly that's RIP now and it's not clear to me what will happen in the North once it becomes clear that this is dead.

Note though the 2019 elections saw a backlash against both main 'sectarian' parties, in favour of those who defended the constitution as it was, the SDLP and the Alliance. The DUP's attempt to recreate Orange State 2.0 did not go down very well among middle class voters in Greater Belfast, which is interesting in itself.

That's the thing: while the dream itself is quite dead for the time being, the idea that Northern Ireland ought to exist in a state of ambiguity isn't and there turns out to be a pretty large share of the electorate that has become very attached to the... er... anti-concept.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yes, but quite frankly that's RIP now and it's not clear to me what will happen in the North once it becomes clear that this is dead.

Note though the 2019 elections saw a backlash against both main 'sectarian' parties, in favour of those who defended the constitution as it was, the SDLP and the Alliance. The DUP's attempt to recreate Orange State 2.0 did not go down very well among middle class voters in Greater Belfast, which is interesting in itself.

That's the thing: while the dream itself is quite dead for the time being, the idea that Northern Ireland ought to exist in a state of ambiguity isn't and there turns out to be a pretty large share of the electorate that has become very attached to the... er... anti-concept.

Anti-Politics, it's about escaping being Green or Orange, just wanting to grill, so to speak.

What's interesting on that point was until the end of the Troubles that sentiment was mostly Unionist, as the widespread opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985 indicates, even if wasn't always Unionist Orthodoxy (i.e. integrationism was popular among this crowd as well). That clearly though is no longer the case.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's also interesting that this wish for moderation in politics doesn't come with any obvious popular desire for more mixed housing developments or integrated schools - a lot of people backing the SDLP or Alliance are nominally in favour of these things, but they're generally in favour of them happening without any personal cost to them.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is, unfortunately, quite a widespread human trait generally.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Yes, it's certainly not surprising, but the very fact that there are large groups of voters whose basic wish is for Northern Ireland to be normal enough for them to not pay attention means that it's less likely there will be a groundswell of support for any measures to make that actually happen.

[jaichind]

What are the chances of a second partition with a smaller core NI that stays with UK ?