Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[CumbrianLefty]

Demographics are moving somewhat more slowly than some predicted, the direction is clear though.

[CumbrianLefty]

I doubt the UDA\UVF will let it slide without starting the troubles again

"They haven't gone away, you know".

[CumbrianLefty]

It is, unfortunately, quite a widespread human trait generally.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its becoming at least possible that NI could leave the union before Scotland does (though the barriers to that, as related previously in this thread, remain very real)

[CumbrianLefty]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

NI is too fragile politically and definitely doesn't have a strong enough economy to be an independent country. If you break up Northern European countries into regions I believe NI was the 3rd poorest region (behind Northeast England & South Wales, IIRC). And like the other posters said, sectarianism makes the idea even less plausible.

Whilst this is believable, Wales normally gets counted as a single "region" for these purposes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the alternative scenario is that they actually come to see that *some* sort of united Ireland is a "historic inevitability", so to speak. Which would mean their strategy (and that of the "legitimate" NI unionist parties, of course) switching to exacting as high a price as possible from Dublin - which in practice would surely mean a high degree of continued autonomy.

But no, I'm not holding my breath for this to happen any time soon either.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is going to be a hugely hot and controversial take, but in a way I think that the Good Friday Agreement was a mistake. You do not negotiate with terrorists. It would have been vastly preferrable for the IRA to have been utterly crushed than for the GFA to happen.

We tried "crushing" the IRA for long enough, and for a while (until the late 1960s) it even worked to a degree. There are plenty in the British establishment who would have continued to pursue it were it a viable prospect, which in itself strongly suggests that it actually was not.

[CumbrianLefty]

It "could" have been a better solution, but there's a very good chance it wouldn't have been.

[CumbrianLefty]

There would almost certainly be significant emigration of NI unionists to Britain in the event of almost any conceivable united Ireland scenario. Of course we would - and should - accept and welcome them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbh we don't know how even the "hardcore" would react to a united Ireland coming into being.

And there is the precedent of significant emigration of the protestant minority after the Free State came into being (both to NI and the British mainland)

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not for nothing that the late Seamus Mallon said the GFA was "Sunningdale for slow learners"

[CumbrianLefty]

It seems that soon, the major chunks of the "United" Kingdom will only be England and Wales.

Cymru am byth. Long live Glyndŵr.

If both Scotland and NI leave the UK, it won't be long until Wales does too.

(and even now, support for independence there is non-negligible)

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed - whilst many in the Republic are aware of the formidable challenges of integrating the North even in a relatively benign scenario, the belief there that Ireland *should* be one country is extremely deep seated and has endured for a whole century now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Polls have shown public indifference to NI for ages now. Even at the height of IRA violence, it was not unreasonable to say many on the mainland were ambivalent about it.

Scotland leaving would (still) be a different matter to many in rUK.

[CumbrianLefty]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

I know you're not serious, but that would be hilarious and completely opposed by both parties (the Loyalists and the Appalachians, I mean)

West Virginia is paying people to move there lol

Genuinely interested in how many are taking up the offer.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, it is hardly likely to be "rushed" anyway.