Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[Estrella]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

[Estrella]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

This is the point people always seem to ignore. Unionists entire identity is about not being Irish, they will never accept being part of Ireland anymore than Sinn Fein supporters ever accepted being part of Britain. Unionist paramilitaries still have an awful lot of guns even post GFA..

The IRA were a piece of bad luck away from assassinating the British Prime Minister and that was with a military occupation and advanced intelligence service in the form of MI5. The Irish military/intelligence service is in no way equipped to deal with even a minor insurgence on par with present dissident republicans. And the unionists would have literally nothing to lose by fighting in this scenario, since they’d know there was zero chance of them ever going back to the UK.

People forget the Unionist paramilitaries were responsible for as much if not more violence than the IRA were during the 70s-80s, and they haven’t changed much.

And it wouldn't be just a Northern Ireland problem. If Ireland did ever reunite, Loyalist terrorists would almost certainly see (what is now) the Republic as fair game. You could see copycats of IRA's 1990s London attacks, hopefully copying the telephone warnings too. That would be the best case scenario; if not this, then, well, Dublin and Monaghan...

[Estrella]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

I’m pretty sure the Catholic majority border areas (Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry City, South Armagh, South Down) would just jump ship to the RoI in that event leaving NI a rump state.

Hacking off some but not all of NI would create more problems than it would solve. Majority Catholic ≠ no Protestants.

(Arlene Foster is actually from Fermanagh btw)

[Estrella]

This is going to be a hugely hot and controversial take, but in a way I think that the Good Friday Agreement was a mistake. You do not negotiate with terrorists. It would have been vastly preferrable for the IRA to have been utterly crushed than for the GFA to happen.

We tried "crushing" the IRA for long enough, and for a while (until the late 1960s) it even worked to a degree. There are plenty in the British establishment who would have continued to pursue it were it a viable prospect, which in itself strongly suggests that it actually was not.

There are still lots of avenues that were never tried though? First and foremost of course, Sinn Fein should have been made illegal.

Still, even if completely crushing the IRA was impossible, the question then is why did the UK lose "the war" and have to get a negotiated settlement. A settlement that includes the fact that if NI wants they can have a referendum on joining Ireland! (which would never ever happen here, though Scotland shows the UK is way more permissive on that regard)

The reason for that is the existence of Irish Sea. More specifically, the physical separation of Northern Ireland from the rest of the country meant that London politicians of all stripes treated it as a quasi-colony where involvement should be kept to a minimum. Yes, they could have banned Sinn Féin (and guess DUP as well while they were at it) and it could have been a better solution, but who wants to deal with that? A typical Westminster politician (really, a typical Briton) cares about Belfast as much as about sheep rustling in Mongolia.

[Estrella]

It "could" have been a better solution, but there's a very good chance it wouldn't have been.

Yeah, I agree. It would only lead to more violence and it wouldn't have achieved anything. When Spain tried this in Euskadi, all they accomplished was wasting everyone's time with that pointless game of partisan whackamole - EH Bildu are still basically the same people they'd be if they weren't banned a hundred times previously.

Though it did give us some pretty funny election results, like when these guys got 12% back in 2005:

[Estrella]

This is going to be a hugely hot and controversial take, but in a way I think that the Good Friday Agreement was a mistake. You do not negotiate with terrorists. It would have been vastly preferrable for the IRA to have been utterly crushed than for the GFA to happen.

Except the GFA was the defeat of the IRA. It was more or less what the UK government had agreed to at Sunningdale in 1973, 25 years previously. The IRA armed campaign during the intervening 25 years was to force a united Ireland by collapsing the British state in Northern Ireland militarily; the reason Adams, McGuinness and co. abandoned the armed campaign was because they saw that was impossible to achieve. So the Provisional IRA decommissioned and went into electoral politics.

Ok, I guess I'll slightly change that to "unconditional surrender from the IRA" (as opposed to the "negotiated treaty" that was the GFA)

With politicians who have attitudes like this, it's honestly a miracle that Spain somehow managed to solve the ETA situation and that there isn't an Exèrcit Republicà Català (yet).