Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[Coldstream]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

This is the point people always seem to ignore. Unionists entire identity is about not being Irish, they will never accept being part of Ireland anymore than Sinn Fein supporters ever accepted being part of Britain. Unionist paramilitaries still have an awful lot of guns even post GFA..

The IRA were a piece of bad luck away from assassinating the British Prime Minister and that was with a military occupation and advanced intelligence service in the form of MI5. The Irish military/intelligence service is in no way equipped to deal with even a minor insurgence on par with present dissident republicans. And the unionists would have literally nothing to lose by fighting in this scenario, since they’d know there was zero chance of them ever going back to the UK.

People forget the Unionist paramilitaries were responsible for as much if not more violence than the IRA were during the 70s-80s, and they haven’t changed much.

[Coldstream]

To everyone concerned about possible terrorism on the part of desperate Protestant paramilitaries in the event of Irish reunification -how do you feel about having the United Kingdom offering sanctuary (for lack of a better word) in Britain to all Northern Irish Protestants who cannot countenance living under the Irish Republic, especially for those who can't otherwise afford to move?  After all, presumably they are already British citizens, and therefore they don't need visas.  

Why would they leave? It’s not like the Irish military would actually have a chance at beating them if they chose to make a fight of it. Honestly I’d encourage anyone thinking they’d go peacefully to go and meet Ian Paisley Jr or Sammy Wilson. They are no more going to give up their homes/identities than Sinn Fein or the IRA did after hundreds of years of British rule.

[Coldstream]

Of course Loyalists absolutely didn't have a paramilitary wing and committed terrorist acts.

This.

People forget/don’t understand that the loyalist paramilitaries were just as, if not more, blood thirsty than the IRA. They will never back down. And I say this as someone who’d probably be called a soft unionist.

[Coldstream]

Because this pre-supposes that Sunningdale was in any way sustainable at that moment in History.

No? The point about Sunningdale is that the Provisional IRA retreated from an armed campaign to unite Ireland by force to surrendering its arms and accepting a power sharing agreement under the British state that had been brokered with moderate nationalists and unionists decades ago. It is a curious "stalemate" where one side surrenders all of its objectives and weapons to the other side that keeps all of theirs.

(And yeah, the same applies to the loyalist groups post-GFA. They're mostly fat old men who call themselves 'community activists' and complain on TV/to Arlene Foster and can't do much else.)

This is not entirely true - a lot of those fat old men also deal drugs.

And polish their own guns in case they need them again down the line.