Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Zero. Aside from anything else, if there was a border poll which voted for reunification, Belfast would be amongst the areas voting yes.

[LabourJersey]

I disagree that a re-unified Ireland is inevitable; nothing really is inevitable in world politics.

I think it's definitely possible that around 2024 it may be clear that NI is better off staying within the EU under the Republic, and then a border poll is called and unification wins.

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. Not to mention the ROI will probably have to alter its constitution to accommodate NI on some level (whether that's giving cities and regions more power, and even making English the 1st official language) which may be a headache to some.

[Lord Halifax]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

[LabourJersey]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

I know you're not serious, but that would be hilarious and completely opposed by both parties (the Loyalists and the Appalachians, I mean)

[Frodo]

Sounds like common sense:

Clear roadmap must be in place prior to any Irish unity referendum, say academics

Referendums on the future of the island of Ireland should be held only with a clear roadmap of what follows afterwards, according to a report by a group of prominent academics.

They said that a poll would have to be held in the Republic if Northern Ireland voted in favour of unification, although the two referendums could be held on the same day.

In deciding to call a border poll here, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland must “act with conspicuous care and transparent honesty and so maintain public trust”.

They would have to “reflect on a range of evidence: notably election results, opinion polls – bearing in mind the reliability of different sorts of polling – and any votes in the Northern Ireland Assembly".

The working group on unification referendums on the island of Ireland was established by University College London’s (UCL) constitution unit.

It was set up to examine how any future referendums on whether Northern Ireland would stay in the UK or become part of a united Ireland could best be designed and conducted.

[Frodo]

More than half of people in North want referendum on a united Ireland
Half of people in Scotland also want an independence referendum, according to a new opinion poll.

JUST OVER HALF of people in Northern Ireland want a referendum on Irish unity in the next five years, according to a new opinion poll.

The Sunday Times commissioned polls in Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales to gauge people’s views on the future of the United Kingdom.

In Northern Ireland, 47% of people surveyed want to remain in the UK, while 42% of people are in favour of a united Ireland and 11% are undecided.

When asked if they supported a border poll being held in the next five years, 51% said yes and 44% said no.

Among people under the age of 45, supporters of Irish reunification lead by 47% to 46%.

More people in Northern Ireland also think there will be a united Ireland within 10 years, by a margin of 48% to 44%.

If anyone has a subscription to the Sunday Times, that would be lovely.  

[Zinneke]

More than half of people in North want referendum on a united Ireland
Half of people in Scotland also want an independence referendum, according to a new opinion poll.

JUST OVER HALF of people in Northern Ireland want a referendum on Irish unity in the next five years, according to a new opinion poll.

The Sunday Times commissioned polls in Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales to gauge people’s views on the future of the United Kingdom.

In Northern Ireland, 47% of people surveyed want to remain in the UK, while 42% of people are in favour of a united Ireland and 11% are undecided.

When asked if they supported a border poll being held in the next five years, 51% said yes and 44% said no.

Among people under the age of 45, supporters of Irish reunification lead by 47% to 46%.

More people in Northern Ireland also think there will be a united Ireland within 10 years, by a margin of 48% to 44%.

If anyone has a subscription to the Sunday Times, that would be lovely.  

[CumbrianLefty]

Its becoming at least possible that NI could leave the union before Scotland does (though the barriers to that, as related previously in this thread, remain very real)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

[Zinneke]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

Independence is associated with Loyalism.

[Frodo]

More than half of people in North want referendum on a united Ireland
Half of people in Scotland also want an independence referendum, according to a new opinion poll.

JUST OVER HALF of people in Northern Ireland want a referendum on Irish unity in the next five years, according to a new opinion poll.

The Sunday Times commissioned polls in Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales to gauge people’s views on the future of the United Kingdom.

In Northern Ireland, 47% of people surveyed want to remain in the UK, while 42% of people are in favour of a united Ireland and 11% are undecided.

When asked if they supported a border poll being held in the next five years, 51% said yes and 44% said no.

Among people under the age of 45, supporters of Irish reunification lead by 47% to 46%.

More people in Northern Ireland also think there will be a united Ireland within 10 years, by a margin of 48% to 44%.

If anyone has a subscription to the Sunday Times, that would be lovely.  

Thanks!

I'd rather Northern Ireland waits until around 2030 before holding a referendum even if there is a (bare) majority for it now.  I don't see any need to rush into it without the necessary preparation for reunification.  

[GenerationTerrorist]

It would be incredibly sad to see the UK break up.
However, if the democratic will of the people of Northern Ireland is for Irish Unification, then it would be more damaging, in the long run, to deny those wishes.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It would be incredibly sad to see the UK break up.
However, if the democratic will of the people of Northern Ireland is for Irish Unification, then it would be more damaging, in the long run, to deny those wishes.

Well it wouldn't be the breakup of the UK though as Northern Ireland is a fairly minor part. Not like Scottish independence would be. I'm a Scottish unionist who's pro-Irish unification and I don't think that's an extremely uncommon position.

[Estrella]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

[IceAgeComing]

If unification happens (which is a big if) it takes a very long time - frankly it wouldn't surprise me if you are talking a decade at least.  The current core constitutional structures and power sharing of some form would need to be retained (the Unionists wouldn't be happy if the Nationalists got power sharing while they were part of the UK only for it to immediately go away in the opposite situation and they have a lot of guns) and whatever process you would have would need to be designed to minimise bloodshed and terrorism as much as possible.  As others have said it'd open up a constitutional mess in the Republic as well: while asymmetric devolution is a thing all over the world you'd think that it would open up a debate regarding the unitary nature of Ireland's current constitution and whether that should be reformed and then if you are using NI-sized chunks the old Provinces seem like a sensible thing to use but then what do you do with the bits of Ulster that ended up in the Republic post-partition: you can't add them to NI since it would disrupt the power sharing arrangements and the two have been governed separately for 100 years at this point.  Add in the fact that you'd have a chunk of non-EU territory joining an EU member state so they'd want to get involved to make sure that NI followed EU regulations that the UK doesn't need to follow and that the impact doesn't risk the Irish (and therefore EU) economy and you get a situation which would take a very long time for all parties to sort the situation out: especially since the US historically also have an interest in Irish affairs.

Ultimately the 2007-2016 status quo was probably the best for NI: while there were certainly barriers you clearly saw the country trending towards more stable government and terrorism was increasingly a thing of the past and a big part of that was that the settlement did make the symbolic thing of what country Northern Ireland was in increasingly irrelevant to the practical questions regarding the governance of Northern Ireland.  And while there always will be issues between the DUP and Sinn Fein for obvious reasons in government they seem to work together as well as you could expect considering the gulf that exists between them.  Brexit does cause issues though because the practical differences between the UK and the Republic increase significantly and that causes issues for the current status-quo purely because reunification would be an impactful change now.

The real risk though is the risk of increased political violence on both sides and while I don't think you'll ever see a return to levels seen during the Troubles I do think that fear is impacting how all sides in Ireland act on the issue - Sinn Fein talk about a border poll but in an abstract way because they know the risks that one would create and the impact those would have on their base.  I don't think people outside Ireland quite appreciate that though.

[LabourJersey]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

NI is too fragile politically and definitely doesn't have a strong enough economy to be an independent country. If you break up Northern European countries into regions I believe NI was the 3rd poorest region (behind Northeast England & South Wales, IIRC). And like the other posters said, sectarianism makes the idea even less plausible.

[CumbrianLefty]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

NI is too fragile politically and definitely doesn't have a strong enough economy to be an independent country. If you break up Northern European countries into regions I believe NI was the 3rd poorest region (behind Northeast England & South Wales, IIRC). And like the other posters said, sectarianism makes the idea even less plausible.

Whilst this is believable, Wales normally gets counted as a single "region" for these purposes.

[EastAnglianLefty]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

Greece is being absurdly generous. The Donbass is probably nearer the mark.

[Alcibiades]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

NI is too fragile politically and definitely doesn't have a strong enough economy to be an independent country. If you break up Northern European countries into regions I believe NI was the 3rd poorest region (behind Northeast England & South Wales, IIRC). And like the other posters said, sectarianism makes the idea even less plausible.

Whilst this is believable, Wales normally gets counted as a single "region" for these purposes.

I think he was referring to the NUTS2 regions by which the EU measures development: by this measure, Wales is actually divided up into several regions, one of which, West Wales and the Valleys, has the lowest GDP per capita in Northwestern Europe, with the second lowest being Cornwall. There are actually several UK regions which have a lower GDP per capita than Northern Ireland, although it’s obviously not particularly wealthy.

[Coldstream]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

This is the point people always seem to ignore. Unionists entire identity is about not being Irish, they will never accept being part of Ireland anymore than Sinn Fein supporters ever accepted being part of Britain. Unionist paramilitaries still have an awful lot of guns even post GFA..

The IRA were a piece of bad luck away from assassinating the British Prime Minister and that was with a military occupation and advanced intelligence service in the form of MI5. The Irish military/intelligence service is in no way equipped to deal with even a minor insurgence on par with present dissident republicans. And the unionists would have literally nothing to lose by fighting in this scenario, since they’d know there was zero chance of them ever going back to the UK.

People forget the Unionist paramilitaries were responsible for as much if not more violence than the IRA were during the 70s-80s, and they haven’t changed much.

[Zinneke]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

This is the point people always seem to ignore. Unionists entire identity is about not being Irish, they will never accept being part of Ireland anymore than Sinn Fein supporters ever accepted being part of Britain. Unionist paramilitaries still have an awful lot of guns even post GFA..

This is true, but the difference is that when the Republicans make a big statement Dublin takes notice. Historically when Unionists protest and commit acts of violence, Westminster at best doesn't take notice, or otherwise actively condemns then. Like something like 100k marched against the Anglo-Irish agreement...UK gov didn't give a sh**t and now they give even less of a sh**t. They'd rather these guys didn't exist. They are very tolerant to extremist Loyalist compared to dissident Republicans, but the dissident Republicans have had far more political capital (that will increase with the Sinn Fein surge south of the border) that Loyalists with Westminster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Greece is being absurdly generous. The Donbass is probably nearer the mark.

It's a well known fact that the largest private sector employer in Northern Ireland is the narcotics wholesale and distribution industry.

[Estrella]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

This is the point people always seem to ignore. Unionists entire identity is about not being Irish, they will never accept being part of Ireland anymore than Sinn Fein supporters ever accepted being part of Britain. Unionist paramilitaries still have an awful lot of guns even post GFA..

The IRA were a piece of bad luck away from assassinating the British Prime Minister and that was with a military occupation and advanced intelligence service in the form of MI5. The Irish military/intelligence service is in no way equipped to deal with even a minor insurgence on par with present dissident republicans. And the unionists would have literally nothing to lose by fighting in this scenario, since they’d know there was zero chance of them ever going back to the UK.

People forget the Unionist paramilitaries were responsible for as much if not more violence than the IRA were during the 70s-80s, and they haven’t changed much.

And it wouldn't be just a Northern Ireland problem. If Ireland did ever reunite, Loyalist terrorists would almost certainly see (what is now) the Republic as fair game. You could see copycats of IRA's 1990s London attacks, hopefully copying the telephone warnings too. That would be the best case scenario; if not this, then, well, Dublin and Monaghan...

[Samof94]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

In theory yes, but the only thing keeping NI economy from turning into Greece are transfer payments from the rest of the UK. Historically, there was also the small matter that the only thing keeping the place from descending into a civil f****** war was the presence of British Army and London government being there to intervene (indeed, ruling NI directly) in case the Unionist majority decided to go full on fascist. That might seem irrelevant today, but sectarian resentments plus an economy in the gutter is not a good combination.

This is the point people always seem to ignore. Unionists entire identity is about not being Irish, they will never accept being part of Ireland anymore than Sinn Fein supporters ever accepted being part of Britain. Unionist paramilitaries still have an awful lot of guns even post GFA..

The IRA were a piece of bad luck away from assassinating the British Prime Minister and that was with a military occupation and advanced intelligence service in the form of MI5. The Irish military/intelligence service is in no way equipped to deal with even a minor insurgence on par with present dissident republicans. And the unionists would have literally nothing to lose by fighting in this scenario, since they’d know there was zero chance of them ever going back to the UK.

People forget the Unionist paramilitaries were responsible for as much if not more violence than the IRA were during the 70s-80s, and they haven’t changed much.

And it wouldn't be just a Northern Ireland problem. If Ireland did ever reunite, Loyalist terrorists would almost certainly see (what is now) the Republic as fair game. You could see copycats of IRA's 1990s London attacks, hopefully copying the telephone warnings too. That would be the best case scenario; if not this, then, well, Dublin and Monaghan...

Don’t the loyalists also have ties to Neo Nazis?

[jaymichaud]

As someone who hasn't followed the politics of the British Isles closely, would it be possible for NI to leave the UK without Irish reunification? I.e. Northern Ireland would become an independent state. It would be a small state, but far from the smallest, and independence could allow a slow evolution over time from the status quo toward eventual reunification (or not).

I’m pretty sure the Catholic majority border areas (Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry City, South Armagh, South Down) would just jump ship to the RoI in that event leaving NI a rump state.