Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[njwes]

Does anyone think that if reunification became a truly imminent possibility (say a border poll is held that results in 54-46% FOR unification) the desire for unification in the Republic of Ireland would collapse?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Does anyone think that if reunification became a truly imminent possibility (say a border poll is held that results in 54-46% FOR unification) the desire for unification in the Republic of Ireland would collapse?

No.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed - whilst many in the Republic are aware of the formidable challenges of integrating the North even in a relatively benign scenario, the belief there that Ireland *should* be one country is extremely deep seated and has endured for a whole century now.

[Frodo]

It appears the British (at the very least) won't mind seeing the end of Northern Ireland as a distinct political entity, as it would be one less burden they have to deal with:

Shock poll in Britain shows 30 percent want Irish unity
Another 38% of respondents said that they neither supported nor opposed Irish unity, while only 11% were opposed to the idea.

[Samof94]

It appears the British (at the very least) won't mind seeing the end of Northern Ireland as a distinct political entity, as it would be one less burden they have to deal with:

Shock poll in Britain shows 30 percent want Irish unity
Another 38% of respondents said that they neither supported nor opposed Irish unity, while only 11% were opposed to the idea.

How would this affect the Orange Order?

[CumbrianLefty]

Polls have shown public indifference to NI for ages now. Even at the height of IRA violence, it was not unreasonable to say many on the mainland were ambivalent about it.

Scotland leaving would (still) be a different matter to many in rUK.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The median opinion on Northern Ireland in GB has been mildly 'Nationalist' since the 1960s,* so this is no surprise. Almost everyone - well, in England and Wales anyway - views Ulster Protestants as being 'Irish' rather than 'British'.

_{*Before the 1960s the median opinion on Northern Ireland in GB was 'to have no opinion'.}

[Frodo]

They may want to have a referendum vote sometime this decade, but that will only happen if at least 50% of them support reunification with Ireland, per the Good Friday Agreement:

Majority of Northern Irish voters want vote on staying in UK

Two-thirds of voters in Northern Ireland believe there should be a vote over its place in the UK, but only 37% want it to take place within the next five years, according to a new poll for the Observer.

Some 31% of voters said there should be a vote at some point about Northern Ireland’s place in the UK but after 2026, the LucidTalk poll found. A further 29% said there should never be such a vote. There is currently a seven-point lead for Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK should any vote take place.

Asked to state how they would vote, 49% said they would back remaining in the UK, while 42% backed being part of a united Ireland, with 9% saying they did not know. Other recent surveys have put support for a united Ireland much lower. The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, published in June, suggested that 30% backed a united Ireland.

[Frodo]

Time is clearly on the nationalist side -they just have to campaign hard for it to make reunification a reality:

Border poll: Voters in Northern Ireland under 45 would opt for a united Ireland says survey

Voters in Northern Ireland under the age of 45 would opt for a united Ireland, according to a new poll.

However, more people overall would vote for the north to remain part of the UK if a border poll was held now.

The LucidTalk survey for the Belfast Telegraph found that 49% of respondents were in favour of staying in the UK with 39% choosing Irish unity.

But a united Ireland proved to be the most popular choice for people aged under 45, while respondents who were middle-aged and pensioners showed the strongest support for the Union.

The poll comes amid increasing debate on the constitutional question.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Remaining part of the UK still has a ten point lead. Support for Irish unity is higher than in most recent polls, but the drop in support for the union is not statistically significant. This is at most an argument that a border poll in two decades time might be close.

[Lord Halifax]

Remaining part of the UK still has a ten point lead. Support for Irish unity is higher than in most recent polls, but the drop in support for the union is not statistically significant. This is at most an argument that a border poll in two decades time might be close.

that's ignoring demographic change (UI leads among voters under 45 and pensioners are the most unionist) and that the poll has 52% saying they aspire to a UI at some point in the future (given a point over 10 years in the future) with only 44% saying they would never support leaving the UK.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Remaining part of the UK still has a ten point lead. Support for Irish unity is higher than in most recent polls, but the drop in support for the union is not statistically significant. This is at most an argument that a border poll in two decades time might be close.

that's ignoring demographic change (UI leads among voters under 45 and pensioners are the most unionist) and that the poll has 52% saying they aspire to a UI at some point in the future (given a point over 10 years in the future) with only 44% saying they would never support leaving the UK.

It very much is not ignoring demographic change - that is the reason it might be close in two decades time, even if it isn't right now.

An "aspiration" towards a united Ireland isn't particularly meaningful, because it's hard to say what that might mean in practice - is that a "I'd like it, but it'll never happen", is it a theoretical maximum for support for a UI, is it a "we can look at that once we've fixed public services"? The word can bear any of those interpretations, without everybody agreeing meaning all of them.

If polls start showing support for a UI rising above 45%, it'll become a much more contentious issue. Right now it's just a way for politicians on both sides to rally their base and a displacement activity to avoid engaging with their day jobs.

[Lord Halifax]

Remaining part of the UK still has a ten point lead. Support for Irish unity is higher than in most recent polls, but the drop in support for the union is not statistically significant. This is at most an argument that a border poll in two decades time might be close.

that's ignoring demographic change (UI leads among voters under 45 and pensioners are the most unionist) and that the poll has 52% saying they aspire to a UI at some point in the future (given a point over 10 years in the future) with only 44% saying they would never support leaving the UK.

It very much is not ignoring demographic change - that is the reason it might be close in two decades time, even if it isn't right now.

An "aspiration" towards a united Ireland isn't particularly meaningful, because it's hard to say what that might mean in practice - is that a "I'd like it, but it'll never happen", is it a theoretical maximum for support for a UI, is it a "we can look at that once we've fixed public services"? The word can bear any of those interpretations, without everybody agreeing meaning all of them.

If polls start showing support for a UI rising above 45%, it'll become a much more contentious issue. Right now it's just a way for politicians on both sides to rally their base and a displacement activity to avoid engaging with their day jobs.

assuming young people getting the vote during the next two decades would be at least as pro-UI as the youngest category in this poll and most who are 65+ now would be dead it'll result in a clear pro-UI majority - and those seem to be reasonable assumptions.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Remaining part of the UK still has a ten point lead. Support for Irish unity is higher than in most recent polls, but the drop in support for the union is not statistically significant. This is at most an argument that a border poll in two decades time might be close.

that's ignoring demographic change (UI leads among voters under 45 and pensioners are the most unionist) and that the poll has 52% saying they aspire to a UI at some point in the future (given a point over 10 years in the future) with only 44% saying they would never support leaving the UK.

It very much is not ignoring demographic change - that is the reason it might be close in two decades time, even if it isn't right now.

An "aspiration" towards a united Ireland isn't particularly meaningful, because it's hard to say what that might mean in practice - is that a "I'd like it, but it'll never happen", is it a theoretical maximum for support for a UI, is it a "we can look at that once we've fixed public services"? The word can bear any of those interpretations, without everybody agreeing meaning all of them.

If polls start showing support for a UI rising above 45%, it'll become a much more contentious issue. Right now it's just a way for politicians on both sides to rally their base and a displacement activity to avoid engaging with their day jobs.

assuming young people getting the vote during the next two decades would be at least as pro-UI as the youngest category in this poll and most who are 65+ now would be dead it'll result in a clear pro-UI majority - and those seem to be reasonable assumptions.

There is a demographic difference between the oldest generations (who are considerably more Protestant than NI as a whole) and the younger generations. However, there long ago stopped being any significant difference in birthrates between the Protestant and Catholic communities so the trend hasn't continued (hence why there is a Catholic plurality but nobody expects that to become a majority any longer.)

With that necessary codicil, yes, if you remove the oldest generation then there is a plurality for a UI - though not one that's clear, because in every other age group the "Don't Knows" are a larger group than the lead in either direction.

But there isn't one today, because for all that the Northern Irish NHS is not in a good shape, today's over-65s are still a decent share of the electorate and will be for a while yet. So you seem to be arguing against something I'm not saying.

I'm not saying that there couldn't be a lead for the UI side in future. I am saying we are not there yet, nor are we likely to be until at least the 2040s on current trajectories.

[LabourJersey]

Remaining part of the UK still has a ten point lead. Support for Irish unity is higher than in most recent polls, but the drop in support for the union is not statistically significant. This is at most an argument that a border poll in two decades time might be close.

that's ignoring demographic change (UI leads among voters under 45 and pensioners are the most unionist) and that the poll has 52% saying they aspire to a UI at some point in the future (given a point over 10 years in the future) with only 44% saying they would never support leaving the UK.

It very much is not ignoring demographic change - that is the reason it might be close in two decades time, even if it isn't right now.

An "aspiration" towards a united Ireland isn't particularly meaningful, because it's hard to say what that might mean in practice - is that a "I'd like it, but it'll never happen", is it a theoretical maximum for support for a UI, is it a "we can look at that once we've fixed public services"? The word can bear any of those interpretations, without everybody agreeing meaning all of them.

If polls start showing support for a UI rising above 45%, it'll become a much more contentious issue. Right now it's just a way for politicians on both sides to rally their base and a displacement activity to avoid engaging with their day jobs.

assuming young people getting the vote during the next two decades would be at least as pro-UI as the youngest category in this poll and most who are 65+ now would be dead it'll result in a clear pro-UI majority - and those seem to be reasonable assumptions.

There is a demographic difference between the oldest generations (who are considerably more Protestant than NI as a whole) and the younger generations. However, there long ago stopped being any significant difference in birthrates between the Protestant and Catholic communities so the trend hasn't continued (hence why there is a Catholic plurality but nobody expects that to become a majority any longer.)

With that necessary codicil, yes, if you remove the oldest generation then there is a plurality for a UI - though not one that's clear, because in every other age group the "Don't Knows" are a larger group than the lead in either direction.

But there isn't one today, because for all that the Northern Irish NHS is not in a good shape, today's over-65s are still a decent share of the electorate and will be for a while yet. So you seem to be arguing against something I'm not saying.

I'm not saying that there couldn't be a lead for the UI side in future. I am saying we are not there yet, nor are we likely to be until at least the 2040s on current trajectories.

I also get the sense that quite a few of the Northern Irish who support a UI here have a specific vision of a UI that may not line up with reality.

In the case of a border poll, London and Dublin (and Stormont, possibly?) will have to draw up an actual plan for what a UI would look like. That will inevitably be some kind of compromise, which is ultimately good, but could annoy voters who can say "How dare they not include X/Y/Z." It's not crazy to imagine a hypothetical border poll in 15-20 years where potential "Yes" voters don't like the specific plan here and don't ultimately vote for UI, even if they generally want a UI.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There are two questions in terms of how a UI would be implemented. The one that's often thought about is in terms of governance arrangements, loser's consent and the management of security issues. The other one is what the pitch is in terms of what we get if we vote for UI - does the Northern Irish NHS continue, how are the education systems integrated with one another, what about pensions? This is also likely to be somewhat effected but who is in power in Dublin at the time of a Border Poll.

[Pres Mike]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

I know you're not serious, but that would be hilarious and completely opposed by both parties (the Loyalists and the Appalachians, I mean)

West Virginia is paying people to move there lol

[CumbrianLefty]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

I know you're not serious, but that would be hilarious and completely opposed by both parties (the Loyalists and the Appalachians, I mean)

West Virginia is paying people to move there lol

Genuinely interested in how many are taking up the offer.

[LabourJersey]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

I know you're not serious, but that would be hilarious and completely opposed by both parties (the Loyalists and the Appalachians, I mean)

West Virginia is paying people to move there lol

Genuinely interested in how many are taking up the offer.

Decided to look this up - the main grant (which offers $12,000 US to those who move to one of 5 West Virginian towns for 2 years or more) only has accepted around 25-35 people per town, per year.

So only 125-175 people over several years.

[Frodo]

It is a good idea not to rush this:

United Ireland forecast to cost at least £6.8bn, report says

Uniting Ireland is forecast to cost in the region of at least €8bn (£6.86bn) annually and could potentially increase to €20bn (£17.15bn) a year, according to a study by a Dublin-based think tank.

The analysis by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) looks at how much the north would need to be subsidised in the event of Irish unity.

Professor John Fitzgerald, one of the report’s two authors, said the cost of absorbing Northern Ireland into a new 32-county state would put pressure on finances and likely lead to an “immediate, major reduction” in the population’s living standards.

Together with co-author Prof Edgar Morgenroth, the analysis suggests the cost of unification could be substantially reduced if significant changes were made to the structure of the north’s economy that would raise its productivity.

Prof Morgenroth said some of the costs of integration would eventually be offset by the benefits of unity but that this would take “some considerable time”.

In case anyone is curious, in 2009 it was calculated that it cost $1.9 trillion (or 1.3 trillion euros) to reunite Germany.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, it is hardly likely to be "rushed" anyway.

[Epaminondas]

Another obstacle is the age structure of Northern Ireland, with the median over 3 years higher than the Republic's (40 to 37). The cost of covering existing British pensions would be significant, and scrapping them would cause social unrest.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Reading between the lines, what the authors mean by "raising productivity" is firing a lot of public sector workers. I see downsides to this approach.

[Flyersfan232]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

Realistic the Irish should become a monarchy commonwealth like canada to appeal to the loyalist if they are actually seriously about wanting to have a true ireland for unionist and nationalist not like the president have power or anything. they wont because they wont give two sh*t about the loyalists once they are united.

[Conservatopia]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

Realistic the Irish should become a monarchy commonwealth like canada to appeal to the loyalist if they are actually seriously about wanting to have a true ireland for unionist and nationalist not like the president have power or anything. they wont because they wont give two sh*t about the loyalists once they are united.

You're totally obsessed with monarchists. Even if monarchism wasn't a lame outdated concept, you're still derailing every thread with irrelevance.